Super 14 Contenders and Pretenders: Part Two

RANK OUTSIDERS

While not shoo-ins for the bottom spot (they may even end middle-of-the-table), these are two teams that just aren't going to challenge for a semi-final spot. They'll cause some upsets, surprise the big names and battle manfully every game -- but it won't be enough. Once again, it all comes down to depth, which neither of these Aussie teams have enough of.

THE WESTERN FORCE

After a disastrous first season, the Force really have grown into a competitive outfit, finishing mid-table the last few years. But those were the Giteau years, and now their million-dollar man has moved back home to Canberra. They've replaced him with Springbok Andre Pretorius - legendary for injuring himself in bizarre ways (last year he stepped out of his bed wrong and sprained an ankle.) He's a great player... or so I've heard. I've never actually seen him play more than 3 games in a row. Pretorius is maybe best summed up by a couple of his last Springbok appearances against England. Test one: Butch James has wrapped up the game, the Springboks are cantering to victory, and on runs Pretorius to close up shop. One diabolical mistake after another, and he snatches defeat from the jaws of victory. Test two: James is injured, Pretorius starts and is masterful, almost single-handedly defeating England with a series of breaks and drop goals. He's a triple-threat: equally dangerous to himself, his own team, and the opposition.

UPDATE: Andre Pretorius has just picked up a season ending hamstring injury in training. Looking at the video replay, "he's not sure how it happened". Triple threat!

Strengths: Some great attacking players in James O'Connor, Ryan Cross, Cameron Shepherd and Andre Pretorius. They also have some great forwards, picking up experienced props Nic Henderson and Butterball Dunning to compliment the mighty Nathan Sharpe and the irrepressible David Pocock. They also have a wily coach in John Mitchell, and with Giteau gone, he may actually be free to do his job.

Weaknesses: Huge player drain. They lost Giteau, Mitchell, McIsaac, Staniforth, Valentine and a bunch of other stalwarts, leaving them short of depth. A couple injuries could see them fighting it out with the Lions for the wooden spoon (an implement Pretorius is very familiar with). Also, they've never quite managed to win consistently at home, which makes a semi-final place almost impossible to attain.

THE REDS

Many of you may be surprised to see the Reds listed as rank outsiders, instead of bottom feeders. Yes, they're far more likely to end 14th than 4th, but I have elevated their standing for one very good reason: Ewan McKenzie. He's a very good coach - having guided the Waratahs to the play-offs in 3 of his 5 years in charge. The Reds also have almost every good young player in Australia - their average age must be about 17. So I'm backing the bravado of youth and the discipline of McKenzie to restore the glory of once proud Queensland - just not this season. This season, they'll escape the wooden spoon and maybe surprise us all with a mid-table finish (if their pre-season victory over the Crusaders is anything to go by...)

Strengths: Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Peter Hynes and Digby Ioane are future stars of Aussie rugby and are all breath-taking on attack - particularly Ioane. Coupled with some mongrel supplied by skipper James Horwill, and they really do have the potential to crack a few nuts. Also, like Durban, its hot and muggy down in Queensland - not a fun place for visitors.

Weaknesses: Too many youngsters. Teenagers like to believe they're in their prime, but all their joie de vive can't make up for the fact they're stupid and mentally fragile. The Reds are five grizzled old warriors short of a decent team.