Semi-finalists still unclear

After 10 games, there's still only one clear semi-finalist. Five points clear of the chasing pick, with two home games to come, you'd have to back the Bulls to at least make the semi's. Home advantage is by no means certain though, with the Sharks, Crusaders and Stormers still to come. The Bulls heavies are looking tired and a hard match-up against the Sharks next week is going to leave them vulnerable to a desperate Crusaders team. And then an away trip to Newlands to face the Stormers in what could be a do-or-die game for the Capetonians... but Morne Steyn at Loftus is a beautiful thing. Who can bet against that?

I have a nagging suspicion one of the Stormers or Crusaders is not going to make the final four... they both have a nightmare run home. The Crusaders can very easily drop both their remaining away games - their record at Loftus is terrible of late and the Stormers should be able to stop the red and black machine at home. That being said, the Sharks and Bulls both know how to beat the Stormers and do so more often than not, which means the Stormers and Crusaders could be in sitting tied for 4th place with points differential making up the difference.

I'm backing the Reds and Waratahs to fill the other two spots. Everyone else is just too far off the pace, much as I'd like to see the Sharks surprise everyone. The odds are just too long on the front runners losing them all.

So, through a very muddy crystal ball...

1) Bulls
2) Reds
3) Waratahs
4) Stormers

Week Eleven: Andrew's Team

THE ORCADIANS - Facebook S14

*New buys in italics

FR Keven Mealamu (BLU) - $1,270,000
FR Bismarck du Plessis (SHK) - $1,157,500

LK Andries Bekker (STM) - $1, 527,500

LK Dean Mumm (WAR) - $1,115,000

LF Pierre Spies (BUL) - $1,412,500

LF Rocky Elsom (BRM) - $1,172,500

HV Morne Steyn (BUL) - $1,347,500

HV Dan Carter (CRU) - $1,120,000

CT Wynand Olivier (BUL) - $1,482,500

CT Isaia Toe'ava (BLU) - $1,177,500

OB Joe Rokocoko (BLU) - $1,262,500

OB Tim Nanai-Williams (CHF) - $590,000

Team Value: $14,645,000

Cash in Bank: $2,435,150

I rose a couple of spots last week to 11th in the world rankings. This week's team was designed to ensure that I stay thereabouts. As such, I made quite a few changes.

I brought du Plessis into the front row. He's always been a great TR performer, and now that Plumtree's appears to have stopped his frustrating rotation at hooker between Bismarck and John Smit, it seemed a good time to buy.

Despite the Waratahs team not being announced before the round locked, I gambled on Mumm being in the starting XV. He and Bekker have been the best earning locks all season by some margin.

In the halves, I gambled again. I'm not all convinced that Morne Steyn's going to return to the heroics of the early rounds against the Lions, but since the majority of players seem to have bought him (given his dramatic price rise), I decided I couldn't afford to miss out. In the other slot I've recalled Carter, hoping he'll have a big game against the Western Force.

O'Connor's late withdrawal left a centre berth to fill, and I chose Olivier - like Steyn, his opposition this week promises much, but I'll not be too surprised if his score is quite ordinary.

In the backs, I sold Ioane - thinking that the Stormers game's likely to be a low-scoring affair - and replaced him with the Chief's Tim Nanai-Williams, whose been scoring great points whenever he's started.

With myself and Skulliz Boyz in the top 20 and Pulsating Panthers close to breaking into the top 100, our league must be one of the best performers this season. Good luck everyone!

Week Eleven: Kynan's Team

NO POOFTAHS - Facebook S14

*New buys in italics

FR Bismarck Du Plessis (SHK) - $1,152,500
FR Ti'i Paulo (CRU) - $1,187,500

LK Michael Paterson (HUR) - $882,500
LK Andries Bekker (STM) - $1,535,000

LF Pierre Spies (BUL) - $1,412,500
LF Victor Vito (HUR) - $875,000

HV Matt Giteau (BRU) - $1,012,500
HV Morne Steyn (BUL) - $1,340,000

CT Wynand Olivier (BUL) - $1,465,000
CT Luke McAllister (BLU) - $1,152,500

OB Digby Ioane (RED) - $1,197,500
OB Sean Maitland (CRU) - $847,500

Team Value: $14,060,000
Cash in Bank: $167,250

The Bulls are back at Loftus and playing the Lions... Rule Number One - pick anyone playing the Lions. I've bet on Steyn getting his mojo back after weeks of decline... I hope I'm right, but I also think Cooper is going to be shut down by the Stormers.

Olivier is bound to score against the Lions... they're like the French Army on defense. Otherwise, I'm striving for some continuity... could be a mistake. I've got a million transfers left, so probably I should be going for broke right now. Maitland at fullback versus the Force sounded tempting though... so I decided to stick it out - hope I'm right. 

Week Eleven: Team Announcements

CHIEFS vs CHEETAHS, HAMILTON, FRIDAY 09:35

Chiefs – 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Dwayne Sweeney, 13 Jackson Willison, 12 Callum Bruce, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu ,10 Stephen Donald, 9 Junior Poluleuligaga, 8 Colin Bourke, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam (c), 5 Culum Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke, 3 Nathan White, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Toby Smith.

Subs: 16 Vern Kamo, 17 James McGougan, 18 Kevin O’Neill, 19 Sione Lauaki, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Richard Kahui, 22 Jason Hona.

Cheetahs – 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Danwel Demas, 13 Corné Uys, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Naas Olivier, 9 Sarel Pretorius, 8 Davon Raubenheimer, 7 Juan Smith (c), 6 Hendro Scholtz, 5 Izak van der Westhuizen, 4 Barend Pieterse, 3 WP Nel, 2 Ryno Barnes, 1 Wian du Preez.

Subs: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Coenie Oosthuizen, 18 Nico Breedt, 19 Philip van der Walt, 20 Tewis de Bruyn, 21 Riaan Viljoen, 22 Robert Ebersohn.

REDS vs STORMERS, BRISBANE, FRIDAY 11:40

Reds – 15 Peter Hynes, 14 Rod Davies, 13 Will Chambers, 12 Anthony Faingaa, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia (c), 8 Leroy Houston, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Scott Higginbotham, 5 Adam Byrnes, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Ben Daley.

Subs: 16 Sean Hardman, 17 Greg Holmes, 18 Jack Kennedy, 19 Ezra Taylor, 20 Jake Schatz, 21 Ben Lucas, 22 Brando Va’aulu.

Stormers – 15 Gio Aplon, 14 Sireli Naqelevuki, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger (c), 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Adriaan Fondse, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 JC Kritzinger.

Subs: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 JD Moller, 18 Anton van Zyl, 19 Pieter Louw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Willem de Waal, 22 Tim Whitehead.

FORCE vs CRUSADERS, PERTH, FRIDAY 13:45

Force – 15 Mark Bartholomeusz, 14 Nick Cummins, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Ryan Cross, 11 Cameron Shepherd, 10 David Hill, 9 Brett Sheehan, 8 Richard Brown, 7 David Pocock, 6 Matt Hodgson, 5 Nathan Sharpe (c), 4 Ben McCalman, 3 Tim Fairbrother, 2 Ben Whittaker, 1 Pek Cowan.

Subs: 16 Nathan Charles, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Tom Hockings, 19 Sam Wykes, 20 Justin Turner, 21 Sam Harris, 22 Dane Haylett-Petty.

Crusaders – 15 Sean Maitland ,14 Adam Whitelock, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Kahn Fotuali’i, 8 Thomas Waldrom, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Kieran Read, 5 Chris Jack, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Ti’i Paulo, 1 Ben Franks.

Subs: 16 Dan Perrin, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 George Whitelock, 20 Andy Ellis
21 Dan Bowden, 22 Colin Slade.

HIGHLANDERS vs HURRICANES, DUNEDIN, SATURDAY 09:35

Highlanders – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Kenny Lynn, 12 Jason Shoemark, 11 Fetu’u Vainikolo, 10 Michael Hobbs, 9 Jimmy Cowan (c), 8 Steven Setephano, Alando Soakai, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Hayden Triggs, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Clint newland, 2 Jason Rutledge, 1 Chris King.

Subs: 16 Peter Mirrielees, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Joe Tuineau, 19 John Hardie, 20 Scott Cowan, 21 Robbie Robinson, 22 James Paterson.

Hurricanes – 15 Cory Jane, 14 Tamati Ellison, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tyson Keats; 8 Rodney So’oialo, 7 Karl Lowe, 6 Victor Vito, 5 Michael Paterson, 4 Bryn Evans, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore (c), 1 John Schwalger.

Subs: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Jacob Ellison, 18 Jeremy Thrush, 19 Nick Crosswell, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Jason Kawau, 22 Jason Kawau.

WARATAHS vs BRUMBIES, SYDNEY, SATURDAY 11:40

Waratahs – TBC

Brumbies – 15 Julian Huxley, 14 Pat McCabe, 13 Andrew Smith, 12 Tyrone Smith, 11 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Josh Valentine, 8 Stephen Hoiles (c), 7 Colby Faingaa, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 Mitchell Chapman, 3 Salesi Ma’afu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Alexander.

Subs: 16 Huia Edmonds, 17 Guy Shepherdson, 18 Ben Hand, 19 Michael Hooper, 20 Patrick Phibbs, 21 Brackin Karauria-Henry, 22 Alfie Mafi.

BULLS vs LIONS, PRETORIA, SATURDAY 15:00

Bulls – 15 Zane Kirchner; 14 Gerhard van den Heever, 13 Jaco Pretorius, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Francois Hougaard; 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Heini Adams; 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Derick Kuün, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Gary Botha, 1 Gurthrö Steenkamp.

Subs: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Bees Roux, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Deon Stegmann, 20 Fourie du Preez, 21 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 22 Pedrie Wannenburg.

Lions – 15 Carlos Spencer, 14 Michael Killian, 13 Marius Delport, 12 Walter Venter, 11 Wandile Mjekevu, 10 Herkie Kruger, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Derick Minnie, 7 Wikus van Heerden, 6 Cobus Grobbelaar (c), 5 Franco van der Merwe, 4 Nico Luus, 3 Gert Muller, 2 Hans van Dyk, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg.

Subs: 16 Hannes Franklin, 17 Kevin Buys, 18 Wouter Moore, 19 Justin Wheeler, 20 Jacques Coetzee, 21 Deon van Rensburg, 22 Tonderai Chavhanga.

SHARKS vs BLUES, DURBAN, SATURDAY 17:05

Sharks – 15 Patrick Lambie, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Stefan Terblanche, 12 Andries Strauss, 11 JP Pietersen, 10 Andy Goode, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Willem Alberts, 7 Jean Deysel, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Johann Muller, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 John Smit (c).

Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Beast Mtawarira, 18 Michael Rhodes, 19 Alistair Hargreaves, 20 Rory Kockott, 21 Riaan Swanepoel, 22 Lwazi Mvovo.

Blues – 15 Isaia Toeava, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Benson Stanley, 12 Luke McAlister, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Serge Lilo, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Filo Paulo, 4 Kurtis Haiu, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu (c), 1 Tony Woodcock.

Subs: 16 Tom McCartney, 17 Tevita Mailau/Charlie Faumuina, 18 Andrew Van der Heijden, 19 Viliami Ma’afu, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Rene Ranger, 22 Paul Williams.

Best Players After Round Ten

TOP FRONT ROWERS
Keven Mealamu (BLU) - 297 ><
Ti'i Paulo (CRU) - 274 ><
Bismarck du Plessis (SHK) / Adrian Strauss (CHE) - 266 * / >
Andrew Hore (HUR) - 264 >
Gary Botha (BUL) - 263 *

While Mealamu and Paulo continue to dominate. there are a couple of new entries in the rest of the top five. Gary Botha finally hauls himself into fifth place and Bismarck du Plessis makes a belated appearance among the best performing backs. In fairness to the Sharks hooker, if it weren't for the constant rotation between Smit and himself, he'd likely be the best in the position.

TOP LOCKS
Andries Bekker (STM) - 259 ><
Dean Mumm (WAR) - 252 ><
Nathan Sharpe (FOR) - 189 ><
Anthony Boric (BLU) - 160 >
Michael Paterson (HUR) - 159 <

There's little activity among the locks as Boric and Paterson swap places (again) at the bottom of the top five.

TOP LOOSIES
Pierre Spies (BUL) - 333 ><
Chris Alcock (WAR) - 290 ><
Rocky Elsom (BRM) - 259 >
Ryan Kankowski (SHK) - 240 *
Sione Lauaki (CHF) - 230 ><
Adam Thomson (HGH) / Duane Vermeulen (STM) - 224 * / *

As the average scores for the loose forwards has lowered, Ryan Kankowski makes a reappearance, but since he's out for the rest of the tournament and Chris Alcock's score is based on a single game, I've added the players in joint sixth place. Thomson and Vermeulen have being doing solid work for their respective teams all season.

TOP HALVES
Daniel Bowden (CRU) - 430 *
Quade Cooper (RED) - 403 <
Will Genia (RED) - 346 ><
Morne Steyn (BUL) - 340 <
Daniel Carter (CRU) - 273 ><

Bowden's late replacement for Dan Carter against the Cheetahs raises him, rather unfairly, to the top of the pile. A paltry 85 points from Steyn sees him slide even further down the ranks, though you'd imagine that this weekend's game against the Lions should give him the chance to redeem himself for his recent mediocrity.

TOP CENTRES
James O'Connor (FOR) - 368 ><
Luke McAlister (BLU) - 315 *
Adam Ashley-Cooper (BRM) - 268 <
Wynand Olivier (BUL) - 266 <
Isaia Toe'ava (BLU) - 255 <

Luke McAlister's a new entry among the centres in second place, and if you subtract his low score from round 8 when he started from the bench, he'd actually be above O'Connor.

TOP BACKS
Israel Dagg (HGH) - 359 ><
Sitiveni Sivivatu (CHF) - 344 ><
Drew Mitchell (WAR) - 328 ><
Digby Ioane (RED) - 296 >
Rene Ranger (BLU) - 289 <

Ioane and Ranger swap places at the bottom of the top five backs, but with Dagg, Mitchell and maybe Sivivatu returning to action this week, there's sure to be some movement before next week.

Super 14: Road to the Play-offs

As the final Super 14 season comes down to the wire, 10 teams still technically have a shot at qualification. The Chiefs, Sharks and Hurricanes all mathematically have a shot - with the Sharks the best positioned to succeed, given they play only teams above them (their victories ensure no points for the leaders). This is a two edged sword, however, as playing the top teams also means the Sharks have little hope of securing 5 points from every remaining fixture - the Stormers and Bulls in particular do not look particularly beatable... the Stormers haven't given up 4 tries yet this tournament.

The Blues are looking very well placed all the way down 7th place. They have the easiest run in, with only the Sharks game likely to pose a threat. If they win that, they really will be serious contenders. They certainly have the ability - their dismantling of the Bulls as awesome to behold.

The Brumbies have a hard road to the finals. They face the Waratahs, Reds and Crusaders. Their lack of bonus points is haunting them already. Like the Sharks though, the plus side is that their tough opponents sit ahead of them, and the Brumbies control their own fate in knocking them down a notch.

The Waratahs have a good shot at victory in all their remaining matches - away games against the Highlanders and Chiefs shouldn't pose too many problems - setting them up for another semi-final, possibly even a home one, given that the Stormers, Bulls and Crusaders all have to play each other still.

The Reds... they're still a dark horse. They were magnificent against the Bulls, but there's still a lingering doubt they can string enough wins together... probably just a mental holdover from previous seasons. Their game against the Stormers this week will be very telling - they're the form teams currently, and playing the most exciting and pragmatic rugby of the tournament. They look the best coached teams... should be an awesome spectacle!

The Stormers... well, they've really pulled it together. I had my doubts at the start of the season, but now I am wondering who will stop them. They play the Reds and Sharks away, and the Bulls and Crusaders at home - probably the hardest run of any team. I back them to win every game though, but my fear then is that come semi-final time, they'll be burnt out. They could finish top of the log though... assuming they can mentally overcome their Bulls bogey.

The Bulls must still be the favorites. They play the Lions and then have 2 home games -- which they're unlikely to lose, given their record at Loftus... however, the SA government has thrown an interesting wrench into the works - the Bulls may not be allowed to play at Loftus given that the surface needs to be prepared for FIFA 2010. Ripping home advantage from them could create a massive stumbling block, particularly given the fatigue the squad is showing. Their final game against the Stormers should be for the right for a home final... assuming Soweto is as kind a home as Pretoria.

The Crusaders should enjoy their stay at number 1 for one more week, and then it will be all over. They'll scrape in 3rd or 4th, because there is no way they are going to SA to beat the Bulls and Stormers. The Bulls know how to crush them, and will, and the Stormers look invincible currently - sort of like the Crusaders under Robbie Deans. They qualify, but they'll be making a long flight back to SA for a semi-final, and with that there road should end.

Crusaders:
Current position: First
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 10th
Current form (last six games): W W W D W W
Remaining fixtures:
23 April: v Western Force, away
30 April: v Stormers, away
7 May: v Bulls, away
14 May: v Brumbies, home

Bulls:
Current position: Second
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 10th
Current form (last six games): W W W L W L
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Lions, home
1 May: v Sharks, home
7 May: v Crusaders, home
15 May: v Stormers, away

Stormers:
Current position: Third
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 10th
Current form (last six games): W W W L W W
Remaining fixtures:
23 April: v Reds, away
30 April: v Crusaders, home
8 May: v Sharks, away
15 May: v Bulls, home

Reds:
Current position: Fourth
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 11th
Current form (last six games): W W W L W W
Remaining fixtures:
23 April: v Stormers, home
1 May: v Brumbies, away
7 May: v Hurricanes, away
15 May: v Highlanders, home

Waratahs:
Current position: Fifth
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 12th
Current form (last six games): W W W W W L
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Brumbies, home
30 April: v Highlanders, away
8 May: v Chiefs, away
14 May: v Hurricanes, home

Brumbies:
Current position: Sixth
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 13th
Current form (last six games): W W L W W L
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Waratahs, away
1 May: v Reds, home
8 May: v Highlanders, home
14 May: v Crusaders, away

Blues:
Current position: Seventh
Best possible finish:
First
Worst possible finish: 13th
Current form (last six games): L W L W L W
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Sharks, away
1 May: v Cheetahs, away
8 May: v Lions, away
15 May: v Chiefs, home

Hurricanes:
Current position: Eighth
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): L L L L D W
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Highlanders, away
1 May: v Chiefs, home
7 May: v Reds, home
14 May: v Waratahs, away

Sharks:
Current position: Ninth
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): L L W W W W
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Blues,
home
1 May: v Bulls, away
8 May: v Stormers, home
14 May: v Western Force, home

Chiefs:
Current position: 10th
Best possible finish: First
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): L L L W L L
Remaining fixtures:
23 April: v Cheetahs, home
1 May: v Hurricanes, away
8 May: v Waratahs, home
15 May: v Blues, away

Highlanders:
Current position: 11th
Best possible finish: Fourth
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): L L L W L L
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Hurricanes, home
30 April: v Waratahs, home
8 May: v Brumbies, away
15 May: v Reds, away

Force:
Current position: 12th
Best possible finish:
Fifth
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): L L L W W L
Remaining fixtures:
23 April: v Crusaders, home
1 May: v Lions, away
8 May: v Cheetahs, away
14 May: v Sharks, away

Cheetahs:
Current position: 13th
Best possible finish: Sixth
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): W L L L L L
Remaining fixtures:
23 April: v Chiefs, away
1 May: v Blues, home
8 May: v Western Force, home
15 May: v Lions, home

Lions:
Current position: 14th
Best possible finish: Eighth
Worst possible finish: 14th
Current form (last six games): L L L L L L
Remaining fixtures:
24 April: v Bulls,
away
1 May: v Western Force, home
8 May: v Blues, home
15 May: v Cheetahs, away

Dream Team: Round Ten

FR Bismarck du Plessis (SHK) - 555
FR Ben Franks (CRU) - 380

LK Andries Bekker (STM) - 310
LK Nico Luus (LIO) - 280

LF Thomas Waldrom (CRU) - 580
LF Victor Vito (HUR) - 410

HV Will Genia (RED) - 510
HV Khan Fotuail'i (CRU) - 450

CT Luke McAlister (BLU) - 445
CT James O'Connor (FOR) - 435

OB Joe Rokocoko (BLU) - 570
OB Sireli Naqele Vuki (STM) - 515

5 try bonus 200

Total Points 5,640