Tri-Nations Predictions: Week Four

Andrew's Prediction

You don't change a winning formula - even a boring, unattractive formula - so it'll be more of the same dull stuff from the Springboks on Saturday.

The Wallabies enter the game after a fortnight of stewing over a match they should have won. They've also watched the All Blacks flailing around like stranded fish in Bloemfontein and Durban and they're unlikely to be nearly as inept. Their tactical kicking will be a match for the Boks, and I expect kick-and-chase to be the order of the day from both sides - with the Aussies selecting Hynes on the bench rather than Waugh, it seems like Deans' is planning on a lot of running from his backs.

Australia will be more competitive at the line-out but you'd still expect Matfield & co to have the edge. Likewise the breakdown, where I think the Wallabies will fare better than the All Blacks did, but I expect Brussouw to shine again. George Smith and Brown will do good work too though, and the Wallabies will be a bigger threat from turnover ball. Expect to see Giteau darting past Morne Steyn at regular intervals, showing up the latter's defensive frailty.

The Springboks will start strong and quickly get the upper hand I don't think they'll be able to turn their superiority into tries and their complacency will allow the Wallabies back into the game. I think we're going to see a repeat of the first test, with Australia leading in the second half but then watching it slip from their grasp - they just don't have the confidence (arrogance?) of the Boks and, despite playing a much more attractive brand of rugby, this will prove decisive. It'll be close though and the return fixtures in Oz will be an altogether different proposition.

South Africa by 7. Matt Giteau top Test Rugby points scorer.

Kynan's Prediction

South Africa have been in a belligerent mood, intent on bludgeoning their opponents into submission at every ruck, maul and tackle. Expect more of the same, and some extremely shell-shocked Aussies.

But that Robbie Deans is a wily fellow. He'll have some tricks up his sleeve. Expect good old fashioned Crusaders kick-and-chase strategy. Fortunately, the South Africans have the kicking game to counter this. So for everyone hoping for a free flowing, open contest - maybe you better watch some Air New Zealand Cup action. Tomorrow will be all about forwards milling about in the center of the field, watching kicks fly back and forth over their heads, until someone finally makes a mistake.

Shrewd as Deans may be, let's just remember what happened the last few times the Crusaders played the Bulls in a semi-final, which will be similar in intensity to tomorrow's game. They kicked, they chased, and they were brutalized and suffocated by the same core of players making up the Springbok team. Du Preez, Steyn, Habana, Matfield, Botha and Spies - they're masters of their trade and I just cannot see Giteau and Co getting one over on them. Giteau is masterful, but he just doesn't have the muscle at the breakdown to keep him going forward. He'll be starved for ball and space, and he'll get tired and beat up from having Spies and Juan Smith running at his channel all day long, both in attack and defense, intent on smashing his amazingly resilient little body.

It's not going to be pretty, unless South Africa truly get the upper hand, then expect another hiding a la Ellis Park. I'm feeling optimistic. The Aussies think they're ready to make the step up to consistent world domination again. I say they're still a season away.

South Africa by 20 plus. Pierre Spies top TR points scorer

Week Four: Andrew's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Stephen Moore (AUS) - $1,105,000
FR Bismarck Du Plessis (SAF) - $1,202,500

LK Nathan Sharpe (AUS) - $1,110,000
LK James Horwill (AUS) - $1,117,500

LF Heinrich Brussouw (SAF) - $1,152,500
LF Juan Smith (SAF) - $1,142,500

HV Luke Burgess (AUS) - $912,500
HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,265,000

CT Stirling Mortlock (AUS) - $1,152,500
CT Jaque Fourie (SAF) - $1,255,000

OB Bryan Habana (SAF) - $1,192,500
OB Drew Mitchell (AUS) - $1,185,000

Team Value: $13,801,000
Cash in Bank: $8,500

It took all my remaining transfers to mass cull my All Blacks. I bought all my Aussie replacements within about 30 minutes of the round three lock, with only the CT position unfilled. Most of the choices speak for themselves - Moore, Sharpe, Horwill, and Mitchell all scored well in their opening game. I had no choice but to pick Burgess - whose 200 in the first test wasn't too shabby. Giteau didn't play particularly well, or score good TR points, last time but he's a "must pick" in every game he plays. By Wednesday, the Wallabies' prices were rising fast and I had to fill my one remaining open spot - CT. After much prevarication I decided on Mortlock. Although Barnes eclipsed him in the first round, I'm giving the old warhorse one more chance to shine.

Aussie Team Announced

After lots of waiting, the Australian team has been announced, and features only one change from their last game - Phil Waugh has been dropped from the bench to accomodate Peter Hynes. (Which I am smiling about - all my predictions are in the starting line up).

If you haven't bought your Aussies, it's probably too late for you. Their prices are sky high, and you may be reduced to fielding bench players, or worse.

It's a strong team, a settled team. They destroyed the French, but were very poor in the second half aganst the All Blacks. But they have a great catching and kicking game, something the Kiwis have neglected over many seasons now. In Giteau, Barnes and Mortlock they have as much tactical kicking prowess as the Boks, and Mitchell and Ashley-Cooper are supreme in the air (must be all the League exposure).

It's going to be a tight one, assuming the Wallabies can withstand the extreme pressure the Boks will place on them without too many brain explosions.

Australia – 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Stirling Mortlock (c), 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith, 6 Richard Brown, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Subs: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Ben Alexander, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 David Pocock, 20 Will Genia, 21 Peter Hynes, 22 James O’Connor.

Week Four: Kynan's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Stephen Moore (AUS) - $1,105,000
FR Bismarck Du Plessis (SAF) - $1,202,500

LK Nathan Sharpe (AUS) - $1,110,000
LK Victor Matfield (SAF) - $1,235,000

LF Pierre Spies (SAF) - $1,252,500
LF Richard Brown (AUS) - $775,000

HV Morne Steyn (SAF) - $1,167,500
HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,265,000

CT Berrick Barnes (AUS) - $1,167,500
CT Jean De Villiers (SAF) - $1,245,000

OB Franscois Steyn (SAF) - $1,225,000
OB Drew Mitchell (AUS) - $1,185,000

Team Value: $13,935,000
Cash in Bank: $87,500

Assuming all my selection predictions were correct (Aussie team still not announced), this team should be a humdinger. I'm untouchable -- no-one alive is going to score more than me. Sharpe is a TR demon at lock, Giteau needs no introduction, Barnes is just as good as Giteau and Mitchell was top TR scorer in Round One without even doing anything.

My only worry is Richard Brown at LF - I'm not 100 % convinced he'll even be in the matchday 22. There's been talk of Pockock getting a run against the Boks... not sure what that means. Hopefully I won't be left to rue my early buying. He was pretty much the only loosie I could afford though, so it's not as if I had a choice.

Remember, if you have the transfers, buy Aussie backline players. They are going to score more than their SA counterparts (they'll actually get the ball). Unless, of course, we have another 50 point blow-out a la Ellis Park last year. I'm not counting on it though. Australia is good this year. Deans has been working some mojo into them. I expect a close game.

Springbok Team Announced

Peter De Villiers is a new man. Or they have stripped him of all decision-making powers and he truly is a ridiculous sock-puppet controlled by John Smit's insane alter-ego.

No changes, except Olivier gets booted from the bench to make room for Pienaar (but not Ricky Januarie, who De Villiers claims proved his worth in his 2 minutes off the bench... which is positively sane for PdV!)

Morne gets another shot at proving his value beyond his kicking game. Habana and Pieterson are crying softly inside, knowing they have to spend another 80 minutes running like mad after up-and-unders hoping for a good bounce; the only possible way they are ever going to touch the ball.

I for one am glad of no changes, considering I have zero transfers left. Now I have to hope my Aussie predictions were correct, or my world ranking will slide even further. If you have the transfers and money, buy Australian backs - they'll score more TR points even though they're in for a thrashing. At least their wingers have a chance of getting the ball.

Springboks – 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (c), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Andries Bekker, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Adi Jacobs

Best Players After Week Three

With the first three weeks of the Tri-Nations over it seems a good time to look at the most important statistic in Test Rugby - players' average points per game. Of course, the Wallabies have only played once, skewing their results a bit and we'll know a lot more after next week, but here's the current standings:

Top 20 Players - Average Points
OB Mitchell (AUS) - 440
LF Spies (SAF) - 390
CT Barnes (AUS) - 350
LF G. Smith (AUS) - 325
HV M. Steyn (SAF) - 315
FR du Plessis (SAF) - 308
HV Donald (NZL) - 283
OB Sivivatu (NZL) - 275
LF McCaw (NZL) - 270
LF Brussouw (SAF) - 245
FR Moore (AUS) - 245
CT Nonu (NZL) - 242
HV Pienaar (SAF) - 240
CT C. Smith (NZL) - 237
LF Kaino (NZL) - 232
LF Palu (AUS) - 230
LK Horwill (AUS) - 230
LK Ross (NZL) - 222
HV Giteau (AUS) - 220
FR Mtawararia (SAF) - 220

Top 3 FRs - Average Points
FR du Plessis (SAF) - 308
FR Moore (AUS) - 245
FR Mtawararia (SAF) - 220

Top 3 LKs - Average Points
LK Horwill (AUS) - 230
LK Ross (NZL) - 222
LK Sharpe (AUS) - 195

Top 3 LFs - Average Points
LF Spies (SAF) - 390
LF G. Smith (AUS) - 325
LF McCaw (NZL) - 270

Top 3 HVs - Average Points
HV M. Steyn (SAF) - 315
HV Donald (NZL) - 283
HV Pienaar (SAF) - 240

Top 3 CTs - Average Points
CT Barnes (AUS) - 350
CT Nonu (NZL) - 242
CT C. Smith (NZL) - 237

Top 3 OBs - Average Points
OB Mitchell (AUS) - 440
OB Sivivatu (NZL) - 275
OB Turner (AUS) - 190

Apart from seeing which individuals are performing, it's interesting to note that the LFs are the highest scoring position thus far - in previous competitions the HVs, OBs, and FRs usually score better points than they do. But the LKs are consistent with their tradition as the weakest point scoring position in Test Rugby. Also the Springboks' place at the top of the Tri-Nations table isn't currently reflected in their points - being the least represented of the three teams - so don't be afraid to select Wallabies this week.

Week Three Retrospective - Andrew

Lessons from Round Three:

TR stars: Mtawarira (300), Sivivatu (395), M. Steyn (480), McCaw (325)

TR slackers: Botha (55), Thorn (60), J. Smith (70), De Villiers (95), Habana (70), Pietersen (55), F. Steyn (45)

New Zealand rugby is in a shambles, with the All Blacks making more rudimentary errors than the average schoolboy side, but Graham Henry and the Kiwi masses can surely take some solace in their team's Test Rugby performance. En masse they outscored the Springboks, had more players in the top 20 earners this round, and the highest scoring LK, LF, CT and top three OBs. The lesson being, even if you think the Wallabies will lose next week, don't shy from picking them.

Morne Steyn's goal kicking was tremendous and only a fool would denigrate him, but... subtract the points for those kicks and that gift of a try and he only made 155 - by comparison, McAllister scored 100 in his 35 minute appearance when the same formula is applied. In my opinion, Steyn's distribution, defence and attack threat are still lesser than Pienaar's, who'll hopefully reclaim his starting spot next week but probably won't.

I feel vindicated in predicting not a single pass reaching Habana and Pietersen. I certainly didn't see one, unless you count the pass that De Villiers chucked ten feet behind Habana late in the second half - but that may have been intended for the assistant ref. It's a crying shame when one of the world's best players doesn't put a foot wrong and still makes half the points of a hamfisted (possibly drunk?) Rokocoko. The stats don't lie and this round the All Blacks' backline scored a combined 655, compared to a whopping 170 from Habana, Pietersen and F. Steyn (thank you Morne Steyn). Scarcity of transfers means I'll still have Habana in my team next week and I'd love to see him rack up the points but I don't hold out much hope. For future reference, follow the example of their teammates and avoid Bok wingers like the plague.

If you haven't bought some Wallabies yet then do it while you can. Their prices are rising fast and will continue to do so. I gambled on most of the positions and have nearly a complete team for next week. It may come back to haunt me, but my team value has increased by over $400,000 already.

Week Three Retrospective: Kynan

Predictions

Kynan - Boks by 2. Du Plessis top TR scorer.
Andrew - All Blacks by 7. Du Plessis top TR Scorer.

Moral of the story... always back the Boks! Turns out Morne Steyn was top scorer by some ways. Also great showings from Sivivatu, McCaw and Beast, though Bismarck wasn't too shabby coming in at No. 5

Team Points

Kynan - 2,535 points
Andrew - 2,265 points

Thoughts

It was predictably a tight and brutal game, given the conditions. The stats were dominated by mobile forwards who did a lot of close-in ball carrying and tackling - all the loosies, Beast and Bismarck (except Juan Smith, who had a fantastic game - but that doesn't always translate into TR points bizarrely).

Sivivatu defied the trend and racked up a ton with some brilliant line breaks. He and Conrad Smith were the only beacon of hope for the All Blacks, and kept them in the match until late in the second half by looking consistently dangerous. On that note, I just have to add - this was the worst performance I have seen from an All Black side. They were abyssmal. Yes, the Boks were brilliant and put them under huge pressure, but the Kiwis compounded that by failing at the most basic skills required to play this sport - catching and passing. Coupled with a slew of brain explosions (they actually reminded me of Dick Muir's Sharks team - running from their own dead ball line!), the All Blacks never stood a chance. Tactically they were naive - Graham Henry defended this, claiming they played the right tactic as they couldn't match the Boks in the tactical kicking stakes, in which case I say, you got the selection wrong idiots! Rokocoko had a nightmare game. If they needed some tactical kicking, why didn't they play Cory Jane?

Under Henry and Co., this All Black team is looking sloppy, fatigued and one dimensional. Their backline has failed to spark even once this season (barring some fantastic Sivivatu runs), their forwards have been outmuscled by both the Boks and the French, their lineout is a complete disaster, and their team discipline reminds me of a Bok team pre-Jake White. Even the usually brilliant McCaw is flopping around the rucks, giving away penalty after penalty. He should have been binned on Saturday, personally giving away at least 5 penalties. They're a disgrace to the black jersey, and it's time for Henry to fall on his sword.

If the Boks keep up their standard of play, the Aussies are in for a hiding at Newlands. They cannot match the physicality of Bakkies and friends, and are too heavily reliant on front football for their awesome backline to be a danger.