Thursday, February 11, 2010

S14 Predictions: Round One

Andrew's Predictions

Blues vs Hurricanes - Blues by 5
Force vs Brumbies - Brumbies by 7
Cheetahs vs Bulls - Bulls by 12
Crusaders vs Highlanders - Crusaders by 7
Reds vs Waratahs - Waratahs by 10
Lions vs Stormers - Stormers by 15
Sharks vs Chiefs - Chiefs by 3

Kynan's Predictions

Blues vs Hurricanes - Hurricanes by 10
Force vs Brumbies - Brumbies by 5
Cheetahs vs Bulls - Bulls by 5
Crusaders vs Highlanders - Crusaders by 5
Reds vs Waratahs - Waratahs by 5
Lions vs Stormers - Stormers by 15
Sharks vs Chiefs - Sharks by 5

Week One: Andrew's Team

THE ORCADIANS - Facebook S14

FR Keven Mealamu (BLU) - $1,145,500
FR Bismarck Du Plessis (SHK) - $1,145,250

LK Anthony Boric (BLU) - $1,007,550
LK Sam Whitelock (CRU) - $495,250

LF Pierre Spies (BUL) - $1,155,500
LF Ashley Johnson (CHE) - $650,250

HV Daniel Carter (CRU) - $1,300,000
HV Rory Kockott (SHK) - $925,000

CT Ma'a Nonu (HUR) - $1,190,000
CT Berrick Barnes (WAR) - $1,157,500

OB Sitiveni Sivivatu (CHF) - $1,162,500
OB Rudi Wulf (BLU) - $900,550

Team Value: $12,234,850
Cash in Bank: $65,150

In the front row, I plumped for the two proven performers in this position. Du Plessis and Mealamu will doubtless be as reliable this year as in seasons past.

Since the locks are the lowest scoring position on average, I decided to save money here: Whitelock's probably the cheapest player being fielded this week in any position; Boric seems underpriced to me after being one of the highest scoring locks last season.

Ashley Johnson's an untried factor in the realm of Test Rugby, but he's a an exciting, hard-working player whose sure to be worth more than his ridiculously low valuation. In the other LF slot, I chose Pierre Spies. I was tempted by Elsom, but Spies was the highest average loosie in last years S14 and Tri-Nations and his price is sure to inflate more than most.

Dan Carter's selection at flyhalf seems almost mandatory - even in a weakened Crusaders squad he's sure to rack up the points. After being one of the best earners last year, Rory Kockott's a steal at $925,000.

In the centres, I chose Nonu and Barnes. Nonu's a tried and tested TR veteran and Barnes new flyhalf berth at the Waratahs will doubtless ensure he continues to score a lot of points.

For the backs, I've paired Kiwi flyers Sivivatu and Wulf. Sivivatu is always one of the best performers and Wulf's displays last season promise great things to come.

Week One: Kynan's Team

NO POOFTAHS - Facebook S14

FR Bismarck Du Plessis (SHK) - $1,145,250
FR Andrew Hore (HUR) - $1,140,000

LK Michael Paterson (CRU) - $750,000
LK Sam Wykes (FOR) - $515,750

LF Ashley Johnson (CHE) - $650,250
LF Rocky Elsom (BRU) - $1,160,000

HV Daniel Carter (CRU) - $1,300,000
HV Rory Kockott (SHK) - $925,000

CT Ma'a Nonu (HUR) - $1,190,000
CT James O'Connor (FOR) - $1,125,500

OB Cameron Shepherd (FOR) - $1,145,500
OB Rene Ranger (BLU) - $875,000

Team Value: $11,922,750
Cash in Bank: $107,250

For the first week's hit out, I've gone for a mix of the tried and tested, and some bolters I hope are going to rack up some cash for me.

In the front row you can't take any chances, as they guys usually end up near the top of the scoring tables. Hore and Du Plessis will consistently earn about 250 points... you can stick with them the entire tournament and not have to worry.

At lock, Paterson is a proven asset from his Crusader days, and he's cheap - great value there. I've never heard of Wykes, but he's the cheapest starter and locks are notoriously low scorers in Test Rugby -- so don't blow your cash here.

Ashley Johnson is my pick for find of the tournament - he'll be a Springbok come June, so get him while he's cheap. Elsom - well they don't come much better than this and he's always involved, which makes him a good little points earner. Like hookers, loosies are usually top earners, so don't be shy in this category.

Carter is a must buy, with Giteau sidelined (always have one of them) and Kockott seems under-priced for someone so prominent - and he's the primary goal-kicker. He was a great earner last season, and they seem to have forgotten that when pricing him.

Nonu is routinely top of the log, so he's a no-brainer. O'Connor I picked because I believe the Force/Brumbies game is going to be the highest scoring of the weekend, along with the Blues/Hurricanes. So I have lots of Force and Hurricanes throughout.

Shepherd and Ranger are picked for the same reason, with Shepherd being the goal-kicker, and Ranger grossly under-valued... his price will spike as the season progresses - assuming he stays fit.