Week One Retrospective - Andrew

Predictions

Kynan - Australia by 7, Giteau top TR scorer.
Andrew - New Zealand by 5 or less, Mitchell top TR scorer.

With the All Blacks winning by 6 and Drew Mitchell the top TR scorer this round, I'm saying nothing...

Team Selections

Kynan's team - 2,540 points
Andrew's team - 2,560 points

Barely a whisker between the two teams. If only I'd selected Barnes over Mortlock...

Test Rugby Thoughts on this Weeks Game

Mealamu's early entry to the game saw him rack up 250 points, making him the 6th highest points scorer, despite playing for less than 40 minutes. He's surely in contention to start ahead of Hore next week and if he does, then he's an essential buy.

Ross and Donald (and to a lesser extent Jane) were cheap players who earned great points. Richard Brown wasn't and didn't transfer his S14 TR points scoring record to this test.

Mortlock is no longer the consistent performer he once was and I'll be wary in selecting him in week four when the Wallabies return to the fray.

Nonu hasn't rediscovered his Super 14 form yet but is probably worth sticking with. Probably.

Sivivatu looked hungry for work and should still be a good bet for next week.

The market forces are in full swing so if you haven't sold your Wallabies already then do so quickly. And the Boks are beginning to rise in price already so maybe look at some early buys.

Week One: Kynan's Team

FR Andrew Hore (NZL) - $1,140,000
FR Tony Woodcock (NZL) - $790,000

LK Isaac Ross (NZL) - $695,000
LK Dean Mumm (AUS) - $910,000

LF Richard Brown (AUS) - $867,500
LF Richard McCaw (NZL) - $1,200,500

HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,275,000
HV Stephen Donald (NZL) - $955,500

CT Ma’a Nonu (NZL) - $1,180,500
CT Berrick Barnes (AUS) - $1,143,500

OB Cory Jane (NZL) - $722,500
OB Sitiveni Sivivatu (NZL) - $1,162,500

Team Value: $12,042,500
Cash in Bank: $47,500

Not having the luxury of $300,000 extra dollars, like a certain other person I know, I was forced to make some compromises in my team. With locks (LK) being the lowest scoring position (in general), I decided to pick a cheaper lock who was sitting on the bench (Dean Mumm). He's the sort who will come on and make an impact anyway, so I'm counting on him scoring 75% of what Brad Thorn will anyway.

I went will Tony Woodcock in the front row as another cost saving measure - usually I'd opt for 2 hookers, and had their been another cheap center or outside back, I would have sacrificed one of those positions for a hooker. But alas, the prices are crazy this season, forcing me to actually select a prop in the highest avergae scoring position of all.

All my other selections are pretty standard - I went will McCaw in the end, mainly becuase I think his price will rise to about $1,500,000 and then I will sell him for a profit and be done with him.

Don't forget to sell your Aussies as soon as the round locks.

Good luck!

Week One: Andrew's Team

FR Andrew Hore (NZL) - $1,140,000
FR Tony Woodcock (NZL) - $790,000

LK Isaac Ross (NZL) - $695,000
LK Nathan Sharpe (AUS) - $1,130,500

LF Richard Brown (AUS) - $867,500
LF George Smith (AUS) - $1,170,000

HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,275,000
HV Stephen Donald (NZL) - $955,500

CT Ma’a Nonu (NZL) - $1,180,500
CT Stirling Mortlock (AUS) - $1,200,000

OB Cory Jane (NZL) - $722,500
OB Sitiveni Sivivatu (NZL) - $1,162,500

Team Value: $12,289,000
Cash in Bank: $11,000

Affording a decent team for the first week of the competition is always a struggle and this year is no exception, so I made sure that I earned my additional $300,000 by inviting friends. Given that the All Blacks play in the first three rounds, I decided to stack my team with them and only pick a handful of Wallabies. Underpriced players like Ross, Brown, Donald and Jane can’t be ignored and picked themselves. Hore seems like an essential buy to me and I’d like to have picked Stephen Moore alongside him but, at the end of the day, I couldn’t afford him. Instead, I plumped for Woodcock, who’ll almost certainly score less than Moore but will hopefully be the highest scoring prop. Sharpe is a perennial performer and seems to earn around 200 points in every match so he filled out the other LK spot. Giteau will likely end up as one of the highest earners this round so seems another (very expensive) essential buy. For the CTs I picked Nonu and Mortlock. Nonu’s performance was indifferent in the June tests but his S14 was mightily impressive and he has the potential to be the highest point scorer this round. Mortlock doesn't earn the TR points he once did now Giteau is the designated place kicker but he's certain to be at the centre of the action throughout the match. For the other OB spot I went for Sivivatu - a TR point scoring machine if ever there was one. I’d like to have partnered him with Muliaina or Mitchell but Jane’s too cheap to be ignored. For my remaining LF spot I went with George Smith. McCaw would be have been my first choice but was unaffordable. Hopefully Smith, playing his 100th test, will have a barnstorming match.

Remember to sell your Wallabies as soon as the round locks. I’m also planning on picking up a couple of Boks for next week too before their prices rise – du Plessis, du Preez and Brussouw are all likely starters and proven TR point earners.

Predictions: Tri-Nations Week One

Kynan's Prediction

The All Blacks are in trouble, no doubt about it. There has been a general malaise in their play; a staleness born of six years under the same coaches. Graham Henry and Co look devoid of inspiration and seem unable to motivate their charges.

The Wallabies, by contrast, are just hitting their stride under Robbie Deans. He has made brave choices, casting aside under-performing old-timers, taking risks on youngsters, who have repaid his confidence with great performances. He has also brought some fight back into the Aussie pack -- look for Baxter, Moore and Robinson to give the highly-rated (over-rated?) All Black front row a working over (It could happen... there's a first time for everything).

They haven't downed the Kiwis at Eden Park for 23 years, but come Saturday, Robbie Deans is going to be sticking it to the NZRU officials who didn't hire him. And come 2011, when Australia win the World Cup, they'll really be crying. New Zealand let the best coach in the world slip away, and they start regretting it when they see Henry's washed up chumps run off the park by Deans' fresh faced youngsters. (Yes, even Stirling Mort lock is looking fresh-faced).

The selection of Steven Donald at 10 is testament to a camp looking for a safety first, kick-heavy approach, whereas Australia fielding two opensiders on the bench suggests a fast-paced, possession heavy game plan from Deans. If Giteau gets enough ball, he'll show up Donald as a clumsy oaf, and New Zealand will be chasing Turner and Mitchell to the corners all evening. If Ritchie McCaw truly is Superman (and I'm not doubting he is), he'll stand up to the three Aussie fetchers, slow down their ball, and let New Zealand grind it out (this from the same Graham Henry who claimed if he had to win with a drop kick, he didn't want to win at all...)

Australia by 7. Giteau top Test Rugby points scorer.

Andrew's Prediction.

Like a circling great white shark, the Wallabies can smell blood, and the All Blacks do have a certain "wounded beast" look about them these days. Deans' combinations are looking solid - a heady mix of battle-hardened experience and exciting young talent - and their defensive efforts against France and Italy were mightily impressive. The only cloud on the horizon will be rumblings of discontment from the players about Lote Tuqiri's recent axing and perhaps the nagging memory of last year's less than stellar campaign.

The All Blacks have a had a pretty torrid time of it lately. A series of uninspiring tests against France and Italy and injuries to some key players have left them with little to cheer about. But it's hard to ever write off the All Blacks where the Tri-Nations is concerned and the influence of the returning stalwarts like So'oialo, Sivivatu, and especially McCaw, cannot be underestimated.

I think the Wallabies will beat the All Blacks this year at least once, maybe twice, but it won't be this week. I predict the All Blacks to emerge victorious, by the skin of their teeth. In a fast-paced, but relatively low scoring match, New Zealand will get an almighty scare, with little magician Matt Giteau dominating proceedings, and Australia in front going into the final 20 minutes. Then, and only then, will wise old heads like McCaw and Muliaina finally get a grip on the situation and steer the men in black to a slender, but shaky, win.

New Zealand by less than 5. Mitchell top Test Rugby points scorer.

State of the Nation - New Zealand

Andrew's Test Rugby thoughts on the All Blacks squad.

Essential Buy: Andrew Hore. He had a barnstorming run in last year's Tri-Nations and despite a mixed performance in the Super 14, he's likely to rack up the points again this year.

Bargain Buy: Cory Jane. Unexpectedly taking Rokocoko's place on the wing, the $722,500 player is a great deal. Also, Issac Ross for a paltry $695,000 and Stephen Donald for $955,500 are strongly worth considering.

Overpriced: Richie McCaw. The All Black captain always raises his game for the Tri-Nations and he'll probably end up one of the top TR points scorers but at $1.2M you'll be hard pressed to afford him this week.

Wild Card: Conrad Smith. Often overlooked for Ma'a Nonu - his usually higher scoring teammate - Smith is a cheaper option this round and given Nonu's error-prone performances against France and Italy, Smith might be the smarter buy in the end.

Team Selections Announced for First Tri-Nations Game

The weekends teams have been announced, which means you can start buying players for your fantasy teams. There doesn't appear to be any selections with pending fitness tests, with the exception of Stephen Donald - who has been declared fit, though I have my doubts - so buy with confidence.

Australia - 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Stirling Mortlock (c), 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith, 6 Richard Brown, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson. Subs: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Ben Alexander, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 Phil Waugh, 20 David Pocock, 21 Will Genia, 22 James O’Connor.

New Zealand - 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So’oialo, 7 Richie McCaw - captain, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock. Reserves: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Luke McAlister, 22 Josevata Rokocoko.

State of the Nation - Australia

Andrew's Test Rugby thoughts on the Australian squad.

Essential Buy: Matt Giteau. At $1,275,000 he's the most expensive player in the competition but with good reason - he's the world's best flyhalf and always a solid TR points earner, especially since Deans handed him place kicking duties.

Bargain Buy: Richard Brown. Had a belter of a Super 14 season and made good points in his one Tri-Nations appearance against the All Blacks last year. At $867,500 he's a steal.

Overpriced: Stirling Mortlock. A brilliant, inspirational player without question but, thanks to an injury-prone season and Giteau taking over the place kicking, the Wallaby captain is not the TR points scoring machine he once was. At $1.2M he's probably still worth it (his price is almost certain to rise, so might be a good investment) but if money's tight then look elsewhere.

Wild Card: George Smith. Undoubtedly one of the world's best opensides, Smith rarely gets the TR points that his quality of play deserves, but this Saturday marks his 100th test and the turnover-king is likely to raise his game even higher than usual.

Ten Golden Rules for Picking Your Test Rugby Team

1. Don't Be Biased. If you care about scoring high, then don't select players just because you like them or because you support the team they play for, and remember that the best players don't necessarily get the highest points. Always check a player's past and current Test Rugby point scoring form and don't forget that the average points scored is a more important statistic than total points.

2. Winning Isn't Everything. Players from the winning team don't always get more points than those from the losing side. Just because you feel certain that one team will be victorious, don't ignore form players from the weaker side. Even if they aren't crossing the try line, individual players can still earn big points from tackles, scrums and the breakdown. etc.

3. Timely Trading. Buy your players whenever the teams are announced (or even make an educated guess and pick a few beforehand) so you're not forced to buy them at inflated prices. Similarly, sell those players who have a bye next week or picked up an injury as soon as the current round locks before their prices drop.

4. Double Check Line-Ups. Players picking up injuries on the training field or failing a late fitness test can lead to a last-minute reshuffle of the starting XV and can leave you with a man down. Keep an eye on team news throughout the week, right up until the round is locked.

5. Wise Transfer Management. It's easy to get transfer happy, to chop and change your team a lot, especially in the early rounds, but be careful. You might need those transfers in the end and there's nothing worse than being stuck with players who aren't earning points at the end of the tournament just because you haven't any transfers left. At the beginning of the tournament, calculate on average how many transfers you can make each round - for the Tri-Nations, this will probably be 6 players a round - and try and stick to this. And remember that you don't get all your transfers at the beginning of the tournament, so keep an eye on when the additional trades are released.

6. Money Matters. Especially at the start of the competition, your total cash can be a huge factor in the quality of your team. Earn money by buying and selling intelligently. Look for players who are priced lower than they should. Remember that Test Rugby allows you to earn up to $300,000 by inviting ten friends to the game. If you don't have ten friends then invite yourself ten times, setting up dummy teams, but remember that you can't set up more than five teams from one email account.

7. Leave Locks Till Last. Statistically locks are the lowest point scoring position - rarely scoring over 200. So when money's tight, it is better to go with a cheap player from the locks than any other position.

8. Pick Place Kickers. Whenever possible select place kickers for your team whatever position they play. 25 points per successful kick adds up quickly when combined with points scored in their all-round play.

9. Positional Blunders. Occasionally, Test Rugby categorises players incorrectly. Pay attention to where this can be used to your advantage - a back among the centers or a loosie like Kieran Read listed among the locks.

10. Cross Your Fingers. Even following all the above, luck still has a lot to do with it. Big players will have bad days and less consistent players will sometimes play an unexpected blinder. Picking one wild card player in each team is one possible way to mitigate against this.

Welcome!

Welcome to our fantasy rugby blog. Here you will get all the tips you need to improve your play, score more points, and whip your friends. For this Tri-Nations competion, we're speaking specifically about the fantasy game run by www.testrugby.com (you can join our league: Facebook 14 - no password required.)

We will be including our team selections, players we are watching, strategies for winning, as well as general rugby news and views.

We welcome your comments, input and heckling when we get it wrong. (Though we routinely place in the top 100 of the world... so how often will that happen?)

Good luck.