Goodbye Crusaders?

The Crusaders look set to bring home a big fat zero from their tour... I can't imagine that they'll be able to muster even a bonus point against the Bulls next week. That will mean they're still on 34 points with a final game against the Brumbies to play. The question is, where will their contenders be?

The Bulls... well, they'll be on top with at least 47 points. The Stormers? Tough call - they're up against the Sharks in Durban... not a venue they've found a lot of success at in recent years. But you have to back them to pull it off at this stage. I'm calling a close victory over their coastal cousins - Stormers will remain in 2nd place on 42 points. The Reds are away to a Hurricanes team that could pose New Zealand's most credible semi-final threat... I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds lose this -- they're a young team at crunch time... I think their finals weeks were against the Stormers and Bulls. They've peaked emotionally, and it might be all over for them after a wonderful season. The Hurricanes will be on 37 points. The Brumbies will beat the Highlanders with a bonus point, putting them on 37 too. The Waratahs will beat the Chiefs to sit on... 37 points.

So the Reds and Crusaders will be in 6th and 7th place with one round to go... and both with their destinies out of their hands. The Crusaders should beat the Brumbies, knocking off a competitor, and the Reds should beat the Highlanders. That'll put them optimistically on 39 points each. One of the Hurricanes and Waratahs will have to lose... or they could draw... leaving all 4 teams on 39 points. Unlikely. More realistically, one of them will prevail... which one is hard to call - they've both been infuriatingly mediocre - neither team deserves a semi-final spot, but one of the Hurricanes or Waratahs will end 3rd, leaving the Reds and Crusaders to battle it out on points differential. They currently sit 1 point apart on differential... I think the Crusaders may be hammered next week, leaving them a lot of ground to make up against a tough Brumbies team. It would be a shame to see the Reds eliminated... they are perhaps the only team brazen enough to travel to Loftus and make a game of it.

It's still a toss-up... except for the Bulls. They're home free. Another set of crazy result like we had this week, and who knows? Could be the Hurricanes hosting a home semi-final... who would have called that a few weeks ago?

Week Twelve: Andrew's Team

THE ORCADIANS - Facebook S14

*New buys in italics

FR Gary Botha (BUL) - $1,297,500
FR Bismarck du Plessis (SHK) - $1,202,500

LK Andries Bekker (STM) - $1, 547,500

LK Dean Mumm (WAR) - $1,115,000

LF Pierre Spies (BUL) - $1,417,500

LF Rocky Elsom (BRM) - $1,165,000

HV Will Genia (RED) - $1,120,000

HV Aaron Cruden (HUR) - $682,500

CT Wynand Olivier (BUL) - $1,507,500

CT Isaia Toe'ava (BLU) - $1,180,000

OB Joe Rokocoko (BLU) - $1,305,000

OB Tim Nanai-Williams (CHF) - $575,000

Team Value: $14,115,000

Cash in Bank: $3,085,150

I rose to 10th in the rankings. If I can stay there or thereabouts for final weeks of the competition then I'll be very happy.

With an eye to the final rounds, I tried to keep trades to minimum this week. One was enforced with the withdrawal of Mealamu from the starting XV. A pity as I was looking forward to him racking up some good points against the Cheetahs. With the semis in mind, I replaced him with Gary Botha, though I have a feeling that Andrew Hore will score well this week.

For the third week running, I've swapped both my halves. Despite Morne Steyn's good score against the Lions last week, the Sharks are a different prospect and I still don't think he's recovered his early form. Likewise, I ended my Daniel Carter experiment. He's just never really found his groove yet this season, and I doubt he'll do so against the Stormers after a travel week. To replace them I chose Will Genia and Aaron Cruden. Genia's been on sparkling form the last few weeks, scoring 300+. Cruden's performances have been more patchy, but against an injury-ravaged and disheartened Chiefs side, I'm expecting him to have one of his better games.

I toyed with the idea of dropping Nanai-Williams for Rene Ranger or Cory Jane, but in the end I decided I just didn't have the trades to warrant it.

Good luck everyone!

Week Twelve: Kynan's Team

NO POOFTAHS - Facebook S14

*New buys in italics

FR Bismarck Du Plessis (SHK) - $1,202,500
FR Hika Elliott (HUR) - $827,500

LK Michael Paterson (HUR) - $907,500
LK Andries Bekker (STM) - $1,547,500

LF Pierre Spies (BUL) - $1,417,500
LF Victor Vito (HUR) - $880,000

HV Aaron Cruden (HUR) - $682,500
HV Morne Steyn (BUL) - $1,380,000

CT Wynand Olivier (BUL) - $1,507,500
CT Ma'a Nonu (HUR) - $1,167,500

OB Digby Ioane (RED) - $1,165,000
OB Joe Rokocoko (BLU) - $1,305,000

Team Value: $13,990,000
Cash in Bank: $197,250

I bought lots of Hurricanes for some reason this week... must be that they are going to thrash the Chiefs. I have lots of transfers to burn though, so I am not that worried about stacking up on semi-finalists yet. Really I just need as many points as possible, so I can continue my climb to the top. I moved up 2 spaces last week, from 9 to 7, so the strategy is working.

I finally got rid of Giteau - he has been dead-weight for weeks now, dropping in price as well as points. I didn't buy Cooper though, because I think the Reds/Brumbies game is going to be stifling... just a hunch.

Week Twelve: Predictions

Andrew: 58/71 (82%)
Kynan: 50/71 (70%)

Andrew's Predictions
Highlanders vs Waratahs - Highlanders by 3
Stormers vs Crusaders - Stormers by 3
Hurricanes vs Chiefs - Hurricanes by 12
Brumbies vs Reds - Reds by 5
Cheetahs vs Blues - Blues by 10
Lions vs Force - Force by 15
Bulls vs Sharks - Bulls by 7

Kynan's Predictions

Highlanders vs Waratahs - Waratahs by 7+
Stormers vs Crusaders - Stormers by less than 7
Hurricanes vs Chiefs - Hurricanes by 7+
Brumbies vs Reds - Reds by 7+
Cheetahs vs Blues - Blues by 13+
Lions vs Force - Force by less than 7
Bulls vs Sharks - Bulls by 2

Best Players After Round Eleven

TOP FRONT ROWERS
Keven Mealamu (BLU) - 303 ><
Bismarck du Plessis (SHK) - 276 >
Ti'i Paulo (CRU) - 275 <
Andrew Hore (HUR) - 271 ><
Tatafu Polatu-Nau (WAR) - 261 *

Bismarck du Plessis rises to second, still trailing Mealamu, and only a single point ahead of Paulo (though the latter is likely to be benched this week to accomodate Corey Flynn). Although he's been injured, Polatu-Nau makes a return in fifth position at the expense of Gary Botha.

TOP LOCKS
Andries Bekker (STM) - 268 ><
Dean Mumm (WAR) - 236 ><
Nathan Sharpe (FOR) - 211 ><
Michael Paterson (HUR) - 175 >
Anthony Boric (BLU) - 160 <

A big week from Nathan Sharpe sees him close the gap on Mumm but there's little significant activity among the locks. The only movement sees Boric and Paterson swap places for the third week running at the bottom of the top five.

TOP LOOSIES
Pierre Spies (BUL) - 322 ><
Rocky Elsom (BRM) - 247 >
Cobus Grobbelaar (LIO) - 228 *
Adam Thomson (HGH) - 224 >
Victor Vito (HUR) - 218 *

Cobus Grobbelaar and Victor Vito make their first appearances after a series of impressive scores in recent weeks, but Spies still rules the roost, even if his performance against the Lions last week wasn't as rampant as many expected.

TOP HALVES
Quade Cooper (RED) - 378 >
Morne Steyn (BUL) - 344 >
Will Genia (RED) - 343 <
Daniel Carter (CRU) - 267 >
Stephen Brett (BLU) - 266 *

There's a lot of movement among the halves, as Cooper reclaims the top spot from Daniel Bowden, Morne Steyn slips ahead of Genia by a single point, and another point is all the separates Carter and Brett at the bottom of the five.

TOP CENTRES
James O'Connor (FOR) - 368 ><
Wynand Olivier (BUL) - 281 >
Adam Ashley-Cooper (BRM) - 264 >
Luke McAlister (BLU) - 236 <
Isaia Toe'ava (BLU) - 235 ><

There is little meaningful change among the centres as Luke McAlister's early withdrawal sees him slip to fourth. Olivier rediscovered some of his early form against the Lions and rises back to second place.

TOP BACKS
Israel Dagg (HGH) - 355 ><
Sitiveni Sivivatu (CHF) - 340 ><
Drew Mitchell (WAR) - 309 ><
Joe Rokocoko (BLU) - 288 *
Digby Ioane (RED) - 284 <

Joe Rokocoko enters the top five after some impressive performances of late. He does so at the expense of his Blues teammate Rene Ranger, whose been benched the last couple of weeks, but I'd expect him to start this week and against the Cheetahs he has a great chance at jumping back up the rankings.

Week Twelve: Team Announcements

HIGHLANDERS vs WARATAHS, INVERCARGILL, FRIDAY 09:35

Highlanders – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Kenny Lynn, 12 Jason Shoemark, 11 Fetu’u Vainikolo, 10 Robbie Robinson/Matt Berquist, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Steven Setephano, 7 Alando Soakai, 6 Adam Thompson, 5 Hayden Triggs, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Clint Newland, 2 Jason Rutledge, 1 Chris King.

Subs: 16 Peter Mirrielees, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Joe Tuineau, 19 John Hardie, 20 Scott Cowan, 21 Matt Berquist/Robbie Robinson, 22 James Paterson.

Waratahs – 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Tom Carter, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Daniel Halangahu, 9 Josh Holmes, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 Phil Waugh (c), 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Dan Palmer.

Subs: 16 Damien Fitzpatrick, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Chris Thomson, 19 Patrick McCutcheon, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Rory Sidey, 22 Sosene Anesi.

STORMERS vs CRUSADERS, CAPE TOWN, FRIDAY 19:10

Stormers – 15 Gio Aplon, 14 Sireli Naqelevuki, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger (c), 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Adriaan Fondse, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 JD Moller.

Subs: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Eusebio Guinazu, 18 Anton van Zyl, 19 Pieter Louw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Willem de Waal, 22 Tim Whitehead.

Crusaders – 15 Colin Slade, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robert Fruean, 12 Ryan Criotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Kahn Fotuali’i; 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 George Whitelock, 5 Chris Jack, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.

Subs: 16 Ti’i Paulo, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Thomas Waldrom, 20 Andy Ellis, 21 Daniel Bowden, 22 Jared Payne.

HURRICANES vs CHIEFS, WELLINGTON, SATURDAY 09:35

Hurricanes – 15 Cory Jane, 14 Tamati Ellison, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tyson Keats, 8 Rodney So’oialo, 7 Karl Lowe, 6 Victor Vito, 5 Michael Paterson, 4 Bryn Evans, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore (c), 1 John Schwalger.

Subs: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Jacob Ellison, 18 Jeremy Thrush, 19 Nick Crosswell, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Willie Ripia, 22 Jason Kawau.

Chiefs – 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Dwayne Sweeney, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Jackson Willison, 11 Jason Hona, 10 Callum Bruce, 9 Junior Poluleuligaga, 8 Colin Bourke, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam (c), 5 Culum Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke, 3 Nathan White, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Sona Taumalolo.

Subs: 16 Aled de Malmanche/Vern Kamo, 17 Ben Afeaki, 18 Kevin O’Neill, 19 Luke Braid, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Trent Renata, 22 Phil Burleigh.

BRUMBIES vs REDS, CANBERRA, SATURDAY 11:40

Brumbies – 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Pat McCabe, 13 Andrew Smith, 12 Tyrone Smith, 11 Brackin Karauria-Henry, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Josh Valentine, 8 Stephen Hoiles (c), 7 Colby Faingaa, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 Mitchell Chapman, 3 Salesi Ma’afu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Alexander.

Subs: 16 Huia Edmonds, 17 Jerry Yanuyanutawa, 18 Ben Hand, 19 Michael Hooper, 20 Patrick Phibbs, 21 Robbie Coleman, 22 Ed Stubbs.

Reds – 15 Peter Hynes, 14 Brando Va’aulu, 13 Will Chambers, 12 Anthony Faingaa, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia (c), 8 Leroy Houston, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Scott Higginbotham, 5 Adam Byrnes, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Jack Kennedy, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Ben Daley.

Subs: 16 Sean Hardman, 17 Greg Holmes, 18 Ezra Taylor, 19 Jake Schatz, 20 Ben Lucas, 21 Ben Tapuai, 22 Luke Morahan.

CHEETAHS vs BLUES, BLOEMFONTEIN, SATURDAY 15:00

Cheetahs – 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Bjorn Basson, 13 Corné Uys, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Naas Olivier, 9 Sarel Pretorius, 8 Frans Viljoen, 7 Juan Smith (c), 6 Hendro Scholtz, 5 Barend Pieterse, 4 Izak van der Westhuizen, 3 WP Nel, 2 Ryno Barnes, 1 Wian du Preez.

Subs: 16 Skipper Badenhorst, 17 Coenie Oosthuizen, 18 Waltie Vermeulen, 19 Phillip van der Walt, 20 Tewis de Bruyn, 21 Riaan Viljoen, 22 Robert Ebersohn.

Blues – 15 Paul Williams, 14 Rene Ranger, 13 Isaia Toeava, 12 Benson Stanley, 11 Joe Rokocoko, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Viliami Ma’afu, 7 Tom Chamberlain, 6 Jerome Kaino (c), 5 Filo Paulo, 4 Kurtis Haiu, 3 John Afoa, 2 Tom McCartney, 1 Tony Woodcock.

Subs: 16 Tevita Mailau/Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Peter Saili, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Daniel Kirkpatrick, 22 Anthony Tuitavake.

LIONS vs FORCE, JOHANNESBURG, SATURDAY 17:05

Lions – 15 Carlos Spencer, 14 Michael Killian, 13 Deon van Rensburg, 12 Walter Venter, 11 Tonderai Chavhanga, 10 Herkie Kruger, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Derick Minnie, 7 Wikus van Heerden, 6 Cobus Grobbelaar (c), 5 George Earle, 4 Nico Luus, 3 Ross Geldenhuys, 2 Charles Emslie/Hannes Franklin, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg.

Subs: 16 Hannes Franklin, 17 Heinke van der Merwe, 18 Jacques Lombaard, 19 Justin Wheeler/Jonathan Mokuena, 20 Jacques Coetzee, 21 Jaco Taute, 22 Bernado Botha.

Force – 15 Cameron Shepherd, 14 Scott Staniforth, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Ryan Cross, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 David Hill, 9 Brett Sheehan, 8 Richard Brown, 7 David Pocock, 6 Matt Hodgson, 5 Nathan Sharpe (c), 4 Sam Wykes, 3 Matt Dunning, 2 Ben Whittaker, 1 Pek Cowan.

Subs: 16 Nathan Charles, 17 Kieran Longbottom, 18 Tom Hockings, 19 Ben McCalman, 20 Justin Turner, 21 Sam Harris, 22 Mark Bartholomeusz.

BULLS vs SHARKS. PRETORIA, SATURDAY 19:10

Bulls – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Gerhard van den Heever, 13 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Gary Botha, 1 Gurthrö Steenkamp.

Subs: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Bees Roux, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Derick Kuün, 20 Heini Adams, 21 Stephan Dippenaar, 22 Pedrie Wannenburg.

Sharks – 15 Patrick Lambie, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Stefan Terblanche, 12 Riaan Swanepoel, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Andy Goode, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Willem Alberts, 7 Jean Deysel, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Johann Muller, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 John Smit (c).

Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Tendai Mtawarira, 18 Alistair Hargreaves, 19 Keegan Daniel, 20 Rory Kockott, 21 Andries Strauss, 22 Luzuko Vulindlu.

Dream Team: Round Eleven

FR Jason Rutledge (HGH) - 510
FR Hika Elliot (CHF) - 440

LK Nathan Sharpe (FOR) - 400
LK Andries Bekker (STM) - 345

LF Liam Messam (CHF) - 405
LF Alando Soaki (HGH) - 385

HV Aaron Cruden (HUR) - 640
HV Morne Steyn (BUL) - 380

CT Ma'a Nonu (HUR) - 420
CT Wynand Olivier (BUL) - 410

OB Cory Jane (HUR) - 500
OB Gerhard van den Heever (BUL) - 440

5 try bonus 200

Total Points 5,475