Tri-Nations Predictions: Week Three

Kynan's Prediction

The All Blacks will be desperate for a win after last week's poor performance. They did outscore the Boks in the second half though, and will be looking to take that momentum and finally get off to a good start. The Boks, on the other hand, are supremely confident -- but not arrogant. They are a team that knows how to win. They closed down the Lions in the first test, just as they were looking to stage an incredible comeback. They kicked a last second winner in the second test and they shut down the All Black resurgence last week. They have the power, the skill and the temperament to beat anyone. In a wet and rainy Durban, it's hard to imagine the Kiwis gaining an upper hand in the physical battle. Bismarck and Bakkies have been monumental at ruck and maul time. The Beast and Juan Smith do twice the work of their New Zealand counterparts. And then there's Brussow... not even the mighty McCaw can match him right now.

Unfortunately, show ponies like Spies are going to be invisible if it rains, as predicted. That's good news for the Boks, because New Zealand has a slew of them - Sivivatu, Rokocoko, Nonu... uh, Woodcock? Anyway, the point is, they were hoping for a fast-paced game and lots of ball to the wingers. Not going to happen in a wet and windy Durban. The air swirls like a Maelstrom at the best of times in good ol' Kings Park. Look for lots of shoddy kicking from Donald and Muliaina, and some spectacular and moral-sapping returns from Du Preez and the Steyns.

Big TR points are coming from the likes of Bismarck and Hore, Kaino and Smith -- ball-carriers in the hard, close stuff. The wingers will all get nothing. The two Steyn's will rack up a ton each. Matfield will be the best of the locks. McCaw and Brussow will also be winners.

Springboks by 2. Bismarck Du Plessis top TR points scorer.

Andrew's Prediction

The Boks should win this. They're coming off a moral-boosting opening win; the All Blacks are looking tired and going into a game which, if they lose, will leave their defence of the title seriously undermined. The predicted wet conditions will be more familiar to the Kiwis but will surely suit the Bok's ultra-conservative playing style more. Golden boy Morne Steyn is starting in place of the flustered and profligate Ruan Pienaar. Like last week there should be parity in the scrums but, like last week, the Boks will surely reign supreme at the line-outs...

The Boks should win this... but they won't. You could be mistaken for thinking they've already wrapped up their first three home games - South African arrogance is rivalled only by the English, and like the latter it can be their undoing. In all the hullabaloo surrounding Steyn's starting place, many have lost sight of the fact that Pienaar is the better player. Not 'Tiger Woods better,' but certainly more threatening, insightful, and, most importantly, a proven performer at test level. Steyn's off-the-bench cameo in the first Lions test was tempered by his distinctly unimpressive showing in the third. His place kicking is undoubtedly a great asset, but lest we forget the All Blacks outscored the Boks during Steyn's tenure last week - including the Conrad Smith try for which the flyhalf and his girlish tackling was partly culpable. With Steyn at the helm, the South African back line will be even less threatening than last week, with Habana and Pietersen unable to buy a pass for love nor money.

It will be another close and brutal encounter. In the wet conditions, expect a lot of errors from both sides. Tactical kicking will be the name of the game, resulting in a lot of line-outs which the Boks will dominate, but the All Blacks will start stronger than they did last week. McCaw is slowly recapturing his form and the pressure is on for underperformers (ie. lazy, sloppy, overpaid primadonnas) like Nonu and Rokocoko to step up, and they will. It'll be neck and neck in the final 20 minutes but this time the Boks will lose their heads as Steyn wastes good attacking possession by punting (failed) drop goal attempts at every opportunity. The price of having a puppet of a coach who spends halftime standing by himself, talking to no-one will be paid. The All Blacks will return to New Zealand firmly, but undeservedly, in the Tri-Nations driving seat. And the unjustly-maligned and mono-browed Pienaar will start at flyhalf next week.

New Zealand by 7. Bismarck du Plessis top Test Rugby points scorer.

P.S. Did Kynan and his boyfriend Pierre Spies have a break up? Last week he was the strongest, fastest and sexiest human being ever, but this week he's being described as an "invisible" and a "show pony."

Weather to put a dampener on things

The forecast is rain for the 2nd test in Durban. At first, this might seem like a God-send for the beleaguered Kiwis: at sea-level in the rain, just like home. But I am going to disagree.

The Boks, while inexperienced in wet weather conditions, are far better equipped for the kick and grind of a soggy test match. In Morne Steyn, Fourie Du Preez and Franscois Steyn they possess a long and lethal kicking game that far outguns Donald and Muliaina. In their forward pack, as highlighted by their epic mauls last week and against the Lions, they have the bulk and strength to crush the All Blacks.

In Bloem, South Africa looked best while keeping it close, while New Zealand only became an attacking force when they sent it out wide, recycled it quickly and kept hitting it up through the backs. With a wet ball and slippery grass underfoot, and a penchant for handling errors, this strategy will become even less viable for them, and they will be forced to take on the Boks in the forwards -- a recipe for disaster.

It's going to be an ugly, bloody and brutal street-fight, something the Boks relish. Lots of mauling, lots of penalties - perfect conditions for Morne to slowly sink the Kiwis to their first back-to-back defeat against SA since apartheid days.

Week Three: Kynan's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Kevin Mealamu (NZL) - $1,075,000
FR Bismarck Du Plessis (SAF) - $1,175,000

LK Isaac Ross (NZL) - $742,500
LK Victor Matfield (SAF) - $1,215,000

LF Pierre Spies (SAF) - $1,217,500
LF Kieren Read (NZL) - $900,000

HV Morne Steyn (SAF) - $1,065,000
HV Stephen Donald (NZL) - $1,025,000

CT Ma’a Nonu (NZL) - $1,200,000
CT Jean De Villiers (SAF) - $1,220,000

OB Franscois Steyn (SAF) - $1,195,000
OB Sitiveni Sivivatu (NZL) - $1,177,500

Team Value: $13,355,000
Cash in Bank: $147,500

With just enough transfers left to get rid of my Kiwis next week, I had to play it ultra-conservative. Fortunately, I had enough money to transfer in Morne Steyn (thanks Ruan Pienaar for holding your value).

I think Morne Steyn is a must have this week. He's a points machine, both on the field and in TR. (Look to the 2009 Super 14 for proof - he averaged 270 a game, 2nd behind Matt Giteau amongst HV's.) As for the rest, I just hope all my ol' timers from last week perform just as well (or better in the case of Mealamu and Read). I'm hoping for an early injury to one of the NZ loosies and an abominable performance from Hore, which should see an early Mealamu entrance.

As soon as the round locks, I'll be buying Giteau, Mitchell and Barnes.

Week Three: Andrew's Team

*New buys in italics

FR Andrew Hore (NZL) - $1,132,500
FR Bismarck du Plessis (SAF) - $1,175,000

LK Isaac Ross (NZL) - $742,500
LK Brad Thorn (NZL) - $1,125,000

LF Heinrich Brussouw (SAF) - $1,140,000
LF Juan Smith (SAF) - $1,127,500

HV Jimmy Cowan (NZL) - $882,500
HV Stephen Donald (NZL) - $1,025,000

CT Ma’a Nonu (NZL) - $1,200,000
CT Jaque Fourie (SAF) - $1,245,000

OB Bryan Habana (SAF) - $1,180,000
OB Sitiveni Sivivatu (NZL) - $1,177,500

Team Value: $13,152,500
Cash in Bank: $103,500

I made just the one change this week, swapping Brendon Leonard for Jimmy Cowan. Luckily I sold Leonard straight after the game and before his price slipped, but I still didn't have enough to buy Morne Steyn, who will surely earn double whatever Cowan gets. I only have enough transfers left to sell all my All Blacks once this round is locked so that curtailed any further shuffling of the team.

I was glad to see that Hore retained his starting berth. I wouldn't have had the transfers to buy Mealamu in his place. I'm hoping that Habana and Fourie (who apart from his try was pretty anonymous) might get into the game a bit more this week.

Remember to sell your New Zealand players as soon as this round locks. You might consider buying a few Wallabies too before their price rises - barring injury, Giteau, Smith, Mortlock, Sharpe, Mitchell, Moore and a few others should be certain starters. Good luck!

Team Announcements: No Surprises

Peter De Villiers has kept his remarkable run with sanity going for two weeks in a row. He has only made one change to the run-on team, bringing in Steyn for Pienaar (supposedly injury enforced). On that note, Steyn is still cheap, but rising in price by the minute. But him NOW! He is a TR points machine. On the bench, Bekker comes in for Kankowski and Jacobs for Steyn.

Graham Henry has felt the need to make two changes to his losing team. Leonard makes way for Cowan (and finds himself out of the match 22 altogether - and fair enough after racking up -15 TR points). Franks starts for the injured Tialata, bringing Afoa on to the bench. Unfortunately for me, who has Read and Mealamu in my team, Henry has resisted the urge to drop the underperforming So'oialo and Hore. All you Cory Jane owners will note he is still unfortunately on the bench... no relief there for those struggling with finances.

Two great teams, consistency in selection - looks like it's going to be an epic test match.

Springboks – 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (c), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.

Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Andries Bekker, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Adi Jacobs, 22 Wynand Olivier.

All Blacks — 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So’oialo, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.

Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Afoa, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Luke McAlister, 22 Cory Jane.

Week Two Retrospective - Andrew

Not a week to remember for me... my Leonard/Habana combo killed me, racking up a measly 65 points between them. Looking on the bright side, here's what this round taught us...

Mealamu's now earned 380 points playing only 60 minutes of rugby. If he starts next week - and after another lacklustre, error-strewn performance by Hore - surely he will, then he could easily be the top scorer. Remember that the All Blacks have a bye in week four and no new transfers are issued until after that round locks, so if transfers are getting tight he might be a luxury you can't afford.

Who'd want to be a South African winger? Habana (80 points) and Pietersen (60 points) seem more likely to get the ball from intercepting a pass than from their teammates. A win is a win after all but would any other side in the world leave their speedsters out in the cold like this? If the Boks stick to this dreary gameplan in future rounds then you might be advised to go for OBs from the other side - or pick Steyn, who at least gets the ball kicked to him by the opposition at regular intervals.

Brendon Leonard seems like a doubt to start next week, so if money's tight you might think about selling him now - his price is already dropping.

Keep an eye on the injury situation during the week. DeVilliers and Tialata look unlikely to start - the former's price is dropping fast. Knocks to McCaw and Pienaar are allegedly less serious but need to be monitored.

Kynan's boyfriend, Pierre Spies seems to have recovered his rampaging S14 form rather than the anonymous stint he put in against the Lions. Watch his price rocket this week, he'll be the most expensive player by the time the next round locks.

When shuffling your team for next week's game remember that you'll still need enough transfers in hand to replace all your All Blacks the week after.

Week Two Retrospective - Kynan

Predictions

Kynan - Boks by 12. Spies top TR scorer.
Andrew - Boks by less than 7. Sivivatu top TR Scorer.

Ahhh... sweet revenge. Andrew has been smashed, I'm 23 in the world, the Boks won by 9 (not 12... sorry) and Pierre Spies was top points scorer, by a long way.

Team Points

Kynan - 3,055 points
Andrew - 2,360 points (ouch!)

(Self-Centred, Gloating) Test Rugby Thoughts

My Mealamu pick turned out to be a total bust - no points! What's the deal? This was a big mistake which I paid for in world ranking - pretty sure I could have been near the top 10 if I had kept Hore. (Though he was no Brendan Leonard - negative 15!) Kieren Read got a mediocre 90, but he was worth it, as I was able to afford Franscois Steyn, Matfield and De Villiers, who all scored big.

Despite 5 missed kicks, Pienaar's line breaks and try kept him ahead of the other SA halves. De Villiers handily beat out Fourie, but trailed Conrad Smith, who turned out to be the second best little points earner (who would have guessed...) Predictably, Matfield and Ross topped the locks catagory, proving once again that N0. 5 locks are the only ones worth owning. Test Rugby doesn't award points for brutal cleanouts (Sorry Bakkies and Thorn).

I await news on injuries to De Villiers and Pienaar before transferring them out. Remember, transfer as early as possible to preserve profits gained on injured players. Their price will drop like a stone as soon as the news breaks.

And in honor of my totally non-homosexual crush on Spies: