Super 14 Contenders and Pretenders: Part Three

HOPEFULS

In a true testament to the vitality of the Southern Hemisphere tournament, there are a staggering number of teams that are very likely to reach the semi-finals this year - 9 in all. Three of them are true Contenders, and will be discussed later, leaving six teams to battle for that final, desperate semi-final spot.

THE SHARKS

The Sharks have been true contenders for a few years now - leading the log for most of last year before spectacularly imploding during the last 5 weeks and missing out of the semi's altogether. This year, they're looking a little thin. Once sporting an embarrassment of riches, able to field a complete bench of Bokke, they've lost some key individuals the last few years. Bradley Barritt and Francois Steyn will be the most keenly missed. They added solidity to the backline, which now looks pretty inexperienced. A season injury to mega-purchase Juan Hernandez hasn't helped matters either - it's now Ruan Pienaar or bust at flyhalf, and from the way he played last year, I think you'd be better to bet on bust.

Strengths: Five front row Springboks - if they could only get the combination right! Loose forwards for Africa; Alberts boosting their already full larder. Exciting speed in the backline. Ruan Pienaar.

Weaknesses: Ruan Pienaar. Peter De Villiers called him the Tiger Woods of rugby (though Ruan would probably have to pay for his hookers). He is certainly fantastically talented, but is a confidence player, something he has been extremely short on lately as he's been shifted around and mismanaged at every turn. He has great potential at flyhalf, but has thus far been a complete failure, and without a quality No 10, the Sharks will struggle.

THE BLUES

The once mighty Blues have struggled for years now, never recovering from the loss of their great generation. They have the players, but have battled to consistently string results together. Bad management may be to blame - the infighting between the various partners making up the franchise has frightened and frustrated fans and players alike. They were plagued by injuries last year, and struck with another cruel blow in their warm-up game, losing Ali Williams for the season. But they have gained two match-winners in Luke McAlister and Stephen Brett - those two in tandem are as good as any other combo in the tournament. This may be the year Auckland rises again.

Strengths: A fantastic All Black front row, and some brilliant runners at the back - Toeava, Rokocoko, McAlister, Brett, Wulf, Tuitavake and Ranger, to name a few. With a backline like that, there's no reason the Blues cannot be champions again.

Weaknesses: They really don't have any. Perhaps a little weak in the loose forwards, but the problems at the Blues have little to do with the players and more to do with the management.

THE CHIEFS

Last year's runner-ups, the Chiefs have great continuity going into this year, bringing back 20 of their successful squad. Their traditional slow start is being compounded by an overseas tour first up, but maybe this is a boon for a team like the Chiefs - they're bound to lose their first few games anyway; better that they're away games. It's hard to say if their fantastic run towards the end of last season was a fluke or not... they're a notoriously inconsistent outfit. They're a good bet for the semi's... and also a good bet to crash and burn, as they did in the record rout they suffered versus the Bulls in last years final.

Strengths: Unmatched strike power in the back: Muliaina, Sivivatu, Masaga, Kahui, Sweeney, Bruce, Leonard... the list goes on. Coupled with massive ball-carrying loosies like Lauaki, Latimer and Messam, they really are the most dangerous team in the competition. They can score from anywhere, and routinely do.

Weaknesses: A light five. When they are drawn against a hard-grafting team, the Chiefs are usually found wanting - case in point, last season: lost to Crusaders, Waratahs, Sharks, Bulls but smashed every team that played open rugby.

THE BRUMBIES

Australia's only champion franchise, the Brumbies have been languishing a bit of late - still recovering from the loss of Gregan, Larkham and Giteau. But now one of them is back! You cannot over-estimate the value of a playmaker like Giteau, and at the Brumbies, he's surrounded by talent to back him up. And he's back home and happy after some tense years in Perth. The other major coup is Rocky Elsom. He is the only true mongrel in Australia, and his presence will galvanize the Brumbies pack, aid their retention game, and potentially return the Brumbies to their customary position on top.

Strengths: Loads of experience - George Smith, Stirling Mortlock and Matt Giteau all played in the Brumbies golden years and have lead Australia. Throw in current Wallaby skipper Rocky Elsom, and stalwarts like Chisholm, Moore and Hoiles and there really is the nucleus of a great team which the youngsters can grow into.

Weaknesses: They're a little thin in the front row and start with three away games, but other than that, they're really solid.

THE HURRICANES

They're a really well-balanced team, which explains why they're regulars in the play-offs - featuring 3 times in the last 4 years. They have 13 All Blacks in their squad, stars in both the backline and pack. It's hard to spot a weakness -- except a mental one. The Hurricanes just don't strike me as champions... they're a bit too much like the French: sometimes they are brilliant (if a try needs to be scored, I'd always back the Hurricanes to do just that) and sometimes they are really flat. They're like a macrocosm of Nonu's game. Signs are he is shrugging off that particular malaise... which could bode well for the Hurricanes. A little consistency would make them unstoppable.

Strengths: A solid, hard-working pack featuring All Blacks throughout, coupled with a magnificent backline - think Nonu, Conrad Smith, Hosea Gear and Jane. Only the Chiefs have more fire-power, and even that's debatable. I also hear rumour that Aaron Cruden is a remarkable footballer.

Weaknesses: Mental fragility. For some reason the Hurricanes are like the All Blacks at the World Cup - incapable of getting the job done. As soon as they face a big game, they implode. Perhaps new captain Andrew Hore can sort them out. Otherwise, they'll be strong challengers, but no champions.

THE STORMERS

It's been the same story for the last 10 years: "this is the year of the Stormers". They topped the table once, and are still convinced they're a champion outfit just waiting to blossom. And every year I think maybe they're onto something. This year looks particularly promising. They've recruited the mighty Jacque Fourie and Bryan Habana and their pack was actually pretty impressive during the Currie Cup. But why do I have this nagging doubt that come week 6, they'll already be out of it - having lost to bottom-feeders the Lions, Highlanders and Cheetahs... mark my words.

Strengths: They've got loads of quality players - Habana, Burger, Fourie, Liebenberg, Bekker, Jantjes... just to name a few. They also have the most loyal following in the world - averaging almost 40,000 a game at Newlands. They have a favourable draw. They just have no excuses...

Weaknesses: ...but there'll be a string of them. We'll have to hear week after week how they're growing as a team and about to crack it. Also, they have no clarity at flyhalf. They persist with Willem De Waal, who just isn't up to the task, and then mix and match under the guise of some "horses for courses" plan. How about you get yourself a good horse, and then you won't have to worry about the course so much.

Super 14 Contenders and Pretenders: Part Two

RANK OUTSIDERS

While not shoo-ins for the bottom spot (they may even end middle-of-the-table), these are two teams that just aren't going to challenge for a semi-final spot. They'll cause some upsets, surprise the big names and battle manfully every game -- but it won't be enough. Once again, it all comes down to depth, which neither of these Aussie teams have enough of.

THE WESTERN FORCE

After a disastrous first season, the Force really have grown into a competitive outfit, finishing mid-table the last few years. But those were the Giteau years, and now their million-dollar man has moved back home to Canberra. They've replaced him with Springbok Andre Pretorius - legendary for injuring himself in bizarre ways (last year he stepped out of his bed wrong and sprained an ankle.) He's a great player... or so I've heard. I've never actually seen him play more than 3 games in a row. Pretorius is maybe best summed up by a couple of his last Springbok appearances against England. Test one: Butch James has wrapped up the game, the Springboks are cantering to victory, and on runs Pretorius to close up shop. One diabolical mistake after another, and he snatches defeat from the jaws of victory. Test two: James is injured, Pretorius starts and is masterful, almost single-handedly defeating England with a series of breaks and drop goals. He's a triple-threat: equally dangerous to himself, his own team, and the opposition.

UPDATE: Andre Pretorius has just picked up a season ending hamstring injury in training. Looking at the video replay, "he's not sure how it happened". Triple threat!

Strengths: Some great attacking players in James O'Connor, Ryan Cross, Cameron Shepherd and Andre Pretorius. They also have some great forwards, picking up experienced props Nic Henderson and Butterball Dunning to compliment the mighty Nathan Sharpe and the irrepressible David Pocock. They also have a wily coach in John Mitchell, and with Giteau gone, he may actually be free to do his job.

Weaknesses: Huge player drain. They lost Giteau, Mitchell, McIsaac, Staniforth, Valentine and a bunch of other stalwarts, leaving them short of depth. A couple injuries could see them fighting it out with the Lions for the wooden spoon (an implement Pretorius is very familiar with). Also, they've never quite managed to win consistently at home, which makes a semi-final place almost impossible to attain.

THE REDS

Many of you may be surprised to see the Reds listed as rank outsiders, instead of bottom feeders. Yes, they're far more likely to end 14th than 4th, but I have elevated their standing for one very good reason: Ewan McKenzie. He's a very good coach - having guided the Waratahs to the play-offs in 3 of his 5 years in charge. The Reds also have almost every good young player in Australia - their average age must be about 17. So I'm backing the bravado of youth and the discipline of McKenzie to restore the glory of once proud Queensland - just not this season. This season, they'll escape the wooden spoon and maybe surprise us all with a mid-table finish (if their pre-season victory over the Crusaders is anything to go by...)

Strengths: Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Peter Hynes and Digby Ioane are future stars of Aussie rugby and are all breath-taking on attack - particularly Ioane. Coupled with some mongrel supplied by skipper James Horwill, and they really do have the potential to crack a few nuts. Also, like Durban, its hot and muggy down in Queensland - not a fun place for visitors.

Weaknesses: Too many youngsters. Teenagers like to believe they're in their prime, but all their joie de vive can't make up for the fact they're stupid and mentally fragile. The Reds are five grizzled old warriors short of a decent team.

Super 14 Contenders and Pretenders: Part One

THE BOTTOM FEEDERS

The last year of the Super 14 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in history. Looking over the sides, there are very few that aren't realistic contenders for a semi-final spot. But there are a few sides that are perennial bottom-feeders, pointing to the need for relegation - if only there were teams poised and waiting to take the place of these no-hopers.

That being said, looking over these three teams, they're really not bad. They all have a couple very worthwhile players - stars even. So nothing is written in stone yet... except that they'll never finish top half of the table.

Who will the bottom three be? No prizes for guessing.

THE CHEETAHS

Always competitive in South Africa's domestic competition, the Cheetahs have never been able to translate that momentum into Super 14 success. With a best finish of 10th, they really have no place in this competition and should give way to a more worthy franchise - or merge with their ugly step-sister, the Lions. Perhaps with the introduction of the regional system for next years Super 15, we'll see relegation introduced and the Southern Kings can take turns rotating out with South Africa's also-rans. Sure, they'll score a couple upsets, as always (Sharks, I'm looking at you). But they'll never string together enough wins to end anywhere above 10 - they just don't have the player depth or coaching talent. But look for them to be the best of the worst.

Strengths: Best scrum in the competition - no question about it. Their front row, anchored by the awesome Wian Du Preez, will dominate everyone else. Their loose-forwards - Juan Smith (best blindside flanker in the world), Heinrich Brussow (best fetcher flank of 2009) and new-comer Ashley Johnson can stand toe-to-toe with the best - even the Crusaders. So why can't they win?

Weaknesses: Everything else. They have a host of young players coming through constantly, who get poached by bigger Unions as soon as they become established. (Once again, Sharks, I'm looking at you). This lack of established talent means they never have the experienced heads to actually close out games. They're never really blown away, and 2010 will see another slew of close loses.

THE HIGHLANDERS

They've been New Zealand's bastard child for several years now and have become largely redundant as a rugby force. Beaten finalists in 1999, it's been nothing but crap since then. Their crowds have disappeared, their players have evaporated, and don't be surprised to see them replaced sometime in the near future by a second Auckland-based franchise. There's always talk of a revival, and they inevitably play with an entertaining mix of flair and grim determination. But it really isn't enough in this day and age - you also need some talented players, and the Highlanders have very few.

Strengths: They're based in a horrible, cold, God-forsaken corner of the Earth where no-one else likes to go - not even their fans. Also, they always have a cobbled together side that no-one knows what to expect from. And their mullets give them super-powers.

Weaknesses: Like the Cheetahs, there's just no depth. Take out Jimmy Cowan and Adam Thompson, and they have no-one of experience.

THE LIONS

If anyone deserves relegation more than the Cheetahs, it's the Lions. They are abysmal. Based in Africa's financial center and one of her largest cities, they only manage to attract about 2000 people out to their games because they are monumentally crap and completely devoid of any fighting spirit. Perhaps it's a side-effect of all the physical violence in Johannesburg, but the Lions players are particularly adept at avoiding contact - mainly on defense. On attack, their natural instinct is to hand over the ball, again, probably due to the constant off-field muggings.

But... there's rumblings in the jungle. Change has come. Yeah right.

Strengths: New coach - Dick Muir. He took the Sharks from last to title contenders in one season. But I stress contenders - Dick Muir never won anything. But there was promise. Factor in Carlos Spencer, and there's some interesting possibilities.

Weaknesses: The only Super 14 franchise without a single current international player (if you discount Todd Clever... which you should). They lost their only star, Jacques Fourie, to the Stormers and are now relying on the discards from other provinces and some no-namers to steer them through. But once-upon-a-time, Dick Muir had some no-namers called Ruan Pienaar, Francois Steyn, Bismarck Du Plessis, Bradley Barritt and JP Pieterson. He's uncannily good at spotting talent. So we'll see.