All Blacks show their RWC colors

Sonny Bill Williams is being punished by Graham Henry. There was no other explanation for the pounding that man took last night. Henry knew the Tongans needed a sacrificial lamb to run nice and upright into their midst, and he didn't want to risk his precious Nonu, so he moved him out wide. To Williams credit, he took it like a man, and some of his moments were made in rugby heaven. My favorite was actually his "super flick" (what else do you call it?) out the side of his hand, halfway across the field, to Dagg for his 2nd try. No-one else can create opportunities like that. Unfortunately for Sonny (and us spectators), I don't think he fits into the real All Black game-plan.

But onto weightier matters. This All Black team looks like 2007 all over again. There is a simple truth that the Springboks have known for years, which a few other sides have cottoned on to - under sustained pressure, this All Black team falls apart. Tonga was nowhere in the first half - they were a nervous, confused rabble who gave the Kiwis far too much respect and never threatened the gainline. As a result, the ABs looked like magic. Carter merely had to swing it wide and huge swaths of field were consumed. Coach Isitolo Maka called it "stage fright", and no doubt whatever he said (or beat into them? the man is giant!) at half-time did the trick. They came out and played simple, direct rugby - kind of like the Boks - based on brutal defense and forward drives. Result: Carter and Co were nowhere to be found. My favorite moment of all was Taumalolo charging at Carter, causing him to drop the ball and disappear from the game - being subbed shortly afterwards. He reminded me of a Dan Carter way back in Cape Town 2003 - hammered by Matfield and a shadow of a man thereafter.

What did we learn from this opening fixture? This All Black side is imminently beatable (even Tonga kept the 2nd half to 12-7), but only if you keep it simple and win the collisions. The ABs gave up 13 penalties. That's a potential 39 points for someone like Wilkinson or Steyn! (Realistically about 20, as not all were kick-able - but still, that's gifting victory to a better team). Point is, Henry has learnt nothing, his team has learnt nothing. They are magnificent to watch, but the template to beat them remains simple. It just takes mountains of mongrel, which is admittedly in short supply around the world.

Andrew's Team: Week One

Division: Facebook Super 14

Team: The Orcadians

FR Stephen Moore (AUS) $1,163,250

FR William Servat (FRA) $1,139,000

LK Julien Pierre (FRA) $757,000

LK Richie Gray (SCO) $602,500

LF Victor Vito (NZL) $825,550

LF Thierry Dusautoir (FRA) $1,142,750

HV Dan Carter (NZL) $1,275,000

HV Dimitri Yachvili (FRA) $960,000

CT Ma'a Nonu (NZL) $1,188,550

CT Fabrice Estebanez (FRA) $530,550

OB Vincent Clerc (FRA) $1,146,000

OB Israel Dagg (NZL) $1,100,250

Team Value: $11,830,410

Cash in Bank: $169,590

With trades sure to be a precious commodity I picked my starting team with half an eye on round two. France and New Zealand have arguably the easiest opening pair of games, the hosts playing Tonga and Japan, while the French take on Japan and Canada, so players from these nations make up the bulk of my team, with a healthy mix of bargain buys and old heads.

The front row can often prove one of the most profitable positions so I chose two veterans in William Servat and Stephen Moore. Although the Wallabies play their trickiest pool games first (Italy then Ireland), I think closely fought games can be a benefit where scoring the front rows are concerned, the more scrums and line-outs the better.

I saved money in the locks with Julien Pierre and Richie Gray. Both are guaranteed starters for their teams and, as such, grossly underpriced. Gray especially could well be one of the highest scorers of the round in this position. My only regret is having to sell him after the round locks as, thanks to the vagaries of the Testrugby system, Scotland have bye next week and their match against Georgia will not be counted.

With injuries to other players in the All Blacks backrow, Victor Vito is certain to start the first few games. His low price made him an obvious purchase. He's joined in the loose forwards by Thierry Dusautoir, who's captaincy gives him a shot at starting against Canada next round, I hope.

I couldn't help but pick Dan Carter in the halves. It might be a mistake and, strangely, this is the selection choice I'm having most regret about. There's a good chance that Henry will pull him off as soon as the games in the bag, plus I think Slade will probably start against Japan. Even so, the temptation of him racking up a lot of points in even part of this game was too good to miss. As designated kicker, Yachvili should see plenty of action in this round's game.

The centres see a mix of old and new. Ma'a Nonu could have a field day in an open game against Tonga, even if he is out of position. To partner him, I picked French debutant and league-convert Estebanez, who has an impressive try scoring record at club level.

More French/Kiwi action in the backs with Vincent Clerc and Israel Dagg, two of their respective teams most devastating try scorers. I just hope I can hold onto them for next week's game too.

Good luck everyone!

Kynan's Team: Week One

Division: Facebook Super 14
Team: No Pooftahs

FR   William Servat (FRA)          $1,139,000
FR   Rory Best (IRE)                  $1,137,500
LK   Richie Gray (SCO)             $602,500
LK   Julien Pierre (FRA)             $757,000
LF   Thierry Dusuatoir (FRA)      $1,142,750
LF    Pierre Spies (SAF)             $1,177,000
HV   Will Genia (AUS)               $1,007,500
HV   Dan Carter (NZL)              $1,275,000
CT   Frabrice Estebanez (FRA)  $530,555
CT   Joe Ansbro (SCO)             $507,000
OB   Israel Dagg (NZL)             $1,100,250
OB   Tommy Bowe (IRE)          $1,138,950

Cash in Bank:                             $484,995

I favored players in complete mismatches this week - the French against the Japanese, Irish against the USA, Scotland against Romania, etc, etc. They are more likely to be involved in massive numbers of tries, linebreaks, assists - all the good stuff that scores lots of points. I also tried to stick to players who are regulars in their starting line-ups, given the very limited number of trades we have.

We're trading blind through a lot of this tournament, so hopefully the coaches keep a consistent selection. Good luck everyone.

Selection Strategy

While I will not post my first weeks team just yet - I am waiting for Ireland to hopefully announce their squad before the deadline tonight - I have been tinkering and have come up with an interesting strategy.

For those regulars to Test Rugby, you'll no doubt be aware that the highest scorers inevitably come from your front row, loosies, halves, and occassionally outside backs. Centers and locks are always a money pit that usually yields comparatively little. So, I have decided to go with cheap, no-name brands at lock and center, freeing up cash for the important position; thus far I can report I have all the marquee names I want.

And that's not to say you can't find great locks and centers for cheap - look at Andrew's early bargain post and scour the lower recesses of the position listings. There's some great players there.

ROUND ONE: Teams

This post will be updated as teams are released:


Friday, September 9:

New Zealand v Tonga
(Eden Park, Auckland - Kick-off: 20.30; 08.30 GMT)

The teams:

New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Richard Kahui, 13 Ma'a Nonu, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Isaia Toeava, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Sam Whitelock, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Colin Slade, 22 Cory Jane.

Tonga: 15 Vunga Lilo, 14 Viliame Iongi, 13 Suka Hufanga, 12 Andrew Ma'ilei, 11 Siale Piutau, 10 Kurt Morath, 9 Taniela Moa, 8 Viliami Ma'afu, 7 Finau Maka (captain), 6 Sione Kalamafoni, 5 Joe Tu'ineau, 4 Paino Hehea, 3 Taufa'ao Filise, 2 Aleki Lutui, 1 Soane Tonga'uiha.
Replacements: 16 Ephraim Taukafa, 17 Alisona Taumalolo, 18 Kisi Pulu, 19 Sione Timani, 20 Samiu Vahafolau, 21 Samisoni Fisilau, 22 Alipate Fatafehi.

Saturday, September 10:

Scotland v Romania
(Rugby Park, Invercargill - Kick-off: 13.00; 01.00 GMT)

The teams:

Scotland: 15 Chris Paterson, 14 Max Evans, 13 Joe Ansbro, 12 Sean Lamont, 11 Simon Danielli, 10 Ruaridh Jackson, 9 Mike Blair, 8 Richie Vernon, 7 John Barclay, 6 Kelly Brown, 5 Alastair Kellock (captain), 4 Richie Gray, 3 Geoff Cross, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Allan Jacobsen
Replacements: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Alasdair Dickinson, 18 Nathan Hines, 19 Ross Rennie, 20 Chris Cusiter, 21 Dan Parks, 22 Rory Lamont.

Romania: 15 Iulian Dumitras, 14 Stefan Ciuntu, 13 Csaba Gal, 12 Tiberius Dimofte, 11 Madalin Lemnaru, 10 Marin Dumbrava, 9 Lucian Sirbu, 8 Daniel Carpo, 7 Ovidiu Tonita, 6 Mihai Macovei, 5 Cristian Petre, 4 Valentin Ursache, 3 Paulica Ion, 2 Marius Tincu, 1 Mihaita Lazar.
Replacements: 16 Bogdan Zebega Suman, 17 Silviu Florea, 18 Valentin Poparlan, 19 Sandu Burcea, 20 Florin Surugiu, 21 Ionel Cazan, 22 Florin Vlaicu.

Fiji v Namibia
(Rotorua International Stadium - Kick-off: 15.30; 03.30 GMT)

The teams:

Fiji: 15 Kini Murimurivalu, 14 Vereniki Goneva, 13 Gaby Lovobalavu, 12 Seremaia Bai, 11 Naipolioni Nalaga, 10 Waisea Sedre Luveniyali, 9 Nemia Kenatale, 8 Netani Edward Talei, 7 Mala Ravulo, 6 Dominiko Maiwiriwiri Waqaniburotu, 5 Wame Lewaravu, 4 Leone Nakarawa, 3 Deacon Manu (captain), 2 Viliame Veikoso, 1 Campese Ma'afu.
Replacements: 16 Sunia Koto, 17 Waisea Nailago, 18 Seko Kalou, 19 Akapusi Qera, 20 Vitori Tomu Buatava, 21 Albert James Vulivuli, 22 Iliesa Lomani Rakuka Keresoni.

Namibia: 15 Chrysander Botha, 14 Danie Dames, 13 Danie van Wyk, 12 Piet van Zyl, 11 Conrad Marais, 10 Theuns Kotze, 9 Eugene Jantjies, 8 Jacques Nieuwenhuis, 7 Jacques Burger (captain), 6 Tinus du Plessis, 5 Nico Esterhuyse, 4 Heinz Koll, 3 Raoul Larson, 2 Hugo Horn, 1 Johnnie Redelinghuys.
Replacements: 16 Bertus O'Callaghan, 17 Jane du Toit, 18 Pieter Jan van Lill, 19 Rohan Kitshoff, 20 Ryan de la Harpe, 21 Darryl de la Harpe, 22 Llewellyn Winkler.

France v Japan
(North Harbour Stadium, Albany - Kick-off: 18.00; 06.00 GMT)

The teams:

France: 15 Cedric Heymans, 14 Vincent Clerc, 13 Aurelien Rougerie, 12 Fabrice Estebanez, 11 Maxime Médard, 10 Francois Trinh-Duc, 9 Dimitri Yachvili, 8 Raphael Lakafia, 7 Imanol Harinordoquy, 6 Thierry Dusautoir (captain), 5 Lionel Nallet, 4 Julien Pierre, 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 William Servat, 1 Fabien Barcella.
Replacements: 16 Dimitri Szarzewski, 17 Jean-Baptiste Poux, 18 Julien Bonnaire, 19 Pascal Papé, 20 Morgan Parra, 21 David Skrela, 22 David Marty.

Japan: 15 Shaun Webb, 14 Kosuke Endo, 13 Koji Taira, 12 Ryan Nicholas, 11 Hirotoki Onozawa, 10 James Arlidge, 9 Fumiaki Tanaka, 8 Ryukoliniasi Holani, 7 Michael Leitch, 6 Takashi Kikutani (captain), 5 Toshizumi Kitagawa, 4 Luke Thompson, 3 Kensuke Hatakeyama, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Hisateru Hirashima.
Replacements: 16 Yusuke Aoki, 17 Nozomu Fujita, 18 Hitoshi Ono, 19 Itaru Taniguchi, 20 Atsushi Hiwasa, 21 Murray Williams, 22 Alisi Tupuailai.

Argentina v England
(Otago Stadium, Dunedin - Kick-off: 20.30; 08.30 GMT)

The teams:

Argentina: 15 Martin Rodriguez, 14 Horacio Agulla, 13 Gonzalo Tiesi, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Gonzalo Camacho, 10 Felipe Contepomi (captain), 9 Nicolas Vergallo, 8 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 6 Julio Farias Cabello, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Mario Ledesma, 1 Rodrigo Roncero.
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Martin Scelzo, 18 Mariano Galarza, 19 Alejandro Campos, 20 Alfredo Lalanne, 21 Marcelo Bosch, 22 Juan Jose Imhoff.

England: 15 Ben Foden, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Manu Tuilagi, 12 Mike Tindall (captain), 11 Delon Armitage, 10 Jonny Wilkinson, 9 Richard Wigglesworth, 8 Nick Easter, 7 James Haskell, 6 Tom Croft, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Louis Deacon, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Steve Thompson, 1 Andrew Sheridan.
Replacements: 16 Dylan Hartley, 17 Matt Stevens, 18 Tom Palmer, 19 Tom Wood, 20 Ben Youngs, 21 Toby Flood, 22 Matt Banahan.

Sunday, 11 September

Australia vs Italy

Australia: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Anthony Fainga’a, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Radike Samo, 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 James Horwill (c), 4 Dan Vickerman, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Sekope Kepu.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 James Slipper, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Ben McCalman, 20 Scott Higginbotham, 21 Luke Burgess, 22 James O’Connor.

Italy:
1. Andrea Lo Cicero 2. Leonardo Ghiraldini 3. Martin Castrogiovanni 4. Carlo del Fava 5. Cornelius van Zyl 6. Alessandro Zanni 7. Robert Barbieri 8. Sergio Parisse (c) 9. Fabio Semenzato 10. Luciano Orquera 11. Mirco Bergamasco 12. Gonzalo Garcia 13. Gonzalo Canale 14. Tommaso Benvenuti 15. Andrea Masi
Replacements: 16. Tommaso D'Apice 17. Lorenzo Cittadini
18. Marco Bortolami 19. Paul Derbyshire 20. Edoardo Gori 21. Riccardo Bocchino 22. Luke McLean

South Africa vs Wales

South Africa: 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 John Smit (c), 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 Gurthrö Steenkamp, 18 CJ van der Linde, 19 Johann Muller, 20 Willem Alberts, 21 Francois Hougaard, 22 Butch James.

Wales – 15 James Hook, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (c), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun-Wyn Jones, 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Huw Bennett, 1 Paul James.
Replacements: 16 Lloyd Burns, 17 Ryan Bevington, 18 Bradley Davies, 19 Andy Powell, 20 Tavis Knoyle, 21 Scot Williams , 22 Leigh Halfpenny.

Ireland vs USA

Ireland: 15 Geordan Murphy, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O’Driscoll (capt), 12 Gordan D’Arcy, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip,7 Shane Jennings, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O’Connell, 4 Donncha O’Callaghan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Tom Court
Replacements: 16 Jerry Flannery, 17 Tony Buckley, 18 Donnacha Ryan, 19 Denis Leamy, 20 Eoin Reddan, 21 Ronan O’Gara, 22 Andrew Trimble.

USA: 15 Blaine Scully, 14 Taku Ngwenya, 13 Paul Emerick, 12 Andrew Suniula, 11 James Paterson, 10 Roland Suniula, 9 Mike Petri, 8 Nic Johnson, 7 Todd Clever (capt), 6 Louis Stanfill, 5 Hayden Smith, 4 John van der Giessen, 3 Shawn Pittman, 2 Phil Thiel, 1 Mike MacDonald.
Replacements: 16 Chris Biller, 17 Matekitonga Moeakiola, 18 Scott LaValla, 19 Pat Danahy, 20 Tim Usasz, 21 Nese Malifa, 22 Colin Hawley.

Samoa vs Namibia

Samoa: 15 Paul Williams, 14 Sailosi Tagicakibau, 13 George Pisi, 12 Seilala Mapusua, 11 Alesani Tuilagi, 10 Tusi Pisi, 9 Kahn Fotuali’i, 8 George Stowers, 7 Maurie Faasavalu, 6 Taiasina Tuifua, 5 Kane Thompson, 4 Daniel Leo, 3 Anthony Perenise, 2 Mahonri Schwalger (capt), 1 Sakaria Taulafo.
Replacements: 16 Ti’i Paulo, 17 Census Johnston, 18 Joe Tekori, 19 Ofisa Treviranus, 20 Junior Poluleuligaga, 21 Eliota Sapolu Fuimaono, 22 Tasesa Lavea.

Namibia: 15 Chrysander Botha, 14 Danie Dames, 13 Danie van Wyk, 12 Piet van Zyl, 11 Llewellyn Winkler, 10 Theuns Kotze, 9 Eugene Jantjies, 8 Pieter Jan van Lill, 7 Jacques Burger (capt), 6 Jacques Nieuwenhuis; 5 Henk Franken, 4 Heinz Koll, 3 Raoul Larson, 2 Hugo Horn, 1 Johnnie Redelinghuys.
Replacements: 16 Bertus O’Callaghan, 17 Jane du Toit, 18 Nico Esterhuyse, 19 Rohan Kitshoff, 20 Ryan de la Harpe, 21 Darryl de la Harpe, 22 TC Losper.

Tonga vs Canada

Tonga: 15 Kurt Morath, 14 Fetu’u Vainikolo, 13 Siale Piutau, 12 Alipate Fatafehi, 11 William Helu, 10 Taniela Moa, 9 Thomas Palu, 8 Samiu Vahafolau, 7 Sione Vaiomounga, 6 Finau Maka (c), 5 Tukulua Lokotui, 4 Sione Timani, 3 Kisi Pulu, 2 Ephraim Taukafa, 1 Alisona Taumalolo.
Replacements: 16 Aloisio Ma’asi, 17 Soane Tonga’uiha, 18 Halani Aulika, 19 Viliami Ma’afu, 20 Sione Kalamafoni, 21 Viliame Iongi, 22 Alaska Taufa.

Canada: 15 James Pritchard, 14 Ciaran Hearn, 13 DTH Van Der Merwe, 12 Ryan Smith, 11 Phil Mackenzie, 10 Ander Monro, 9 Ed Fairhurst, 8 Aaron Carpenter, 7 Chauncey O’Toole, 6 Adam Kleeberger, 5 Jamie Cudmore, 4 Jebb Sinclair, 3 Jason Marshall, 2 Pat Riordan (capt), 1 Hubert Buydens.
Replacements: 16 Ryan Hamilton, 17 Scott Franklin, 18 Tyler Hotson, 19 Nanyak Dala, 20 Conor Trainor, 21 Sean White, 22 Nathan Hirayama.

Scotland vs Georgia

Scotland: 15 Rory Lamont, 14 Max Evans, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 Graeme Morrison, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Rory Lawson (captain), 8 Kelly Brown, 7 Ross Rennie, 6 Al Strokosch, 5 Jim Hamilton, 4 Nathan Hines, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Scott Lawson, 1 Allan Jacobsen.
Replacements:16 Ross Ford, 17 Geoff Cross, 18 Alasdair Dickinson, 19 Richie Gray, 20 Richie Vernon, 21 Chris Cusiter, 22 Chris Paterson.

Thursday, September 15

Russia vs USA

Graham Henry making all the same mistakes again

The New Zealand side has been announced, and as usual there's a whole host of changes from the team that lost the Tri-Nations. I think there are nine changes in all. NINE! Henry has admitted that he doesn't know what his best side is, and seems content to chop and change until he figures that out.

So, for starters, there is a whole new backline: Kahui, a center, is on the wing, partnered with Toeava, a fullback cum center on the other wing. Nonu, an inside center is now playing on the outside. Dagg gets a deserved run at fullback and Cowan is back in the drivers seat. Only Carter remains intact from the Aussie game.

In the scrum, we see four changes. Hore returns, pushing Mealamu out of the match 22 altogether. Thorn and Williams resume their old partnership. Kaino and Vito take the place of the injured Read and Thompson, and Whitelock is now blindside flank cover (???).

The cardinal All Black sin has always been playing key players out of position during the RWC - think Cullen at center, a mistake repeated a few years later with Muliaina at center. Their other favorite mistake is leaving experienced players in the stands during crunch games in favor of young hotshots - think McAlister's implosion vs France in 2007 while Aaron Mauger looked on helplessly in his suit and tie.

And this first team up against Tonga - trademark All Black RWC selection confusion - players out of position, hotshot in place of an established combination; exactly what we in the rest of the rugby world love to see. Cue the implosion.

Looking For An Upset

With mere days to go till the Rugby World Cup kicks off I find myself wondering where the upset's going to come from. You know it's bound to happen, it always does, one of the higher ranked teams is going to fall victim to an unfancied opponent. It just wouldn't be a World Cup without it. Let's look at the likely candidates in the group stage.

GROUP A (New Zealand, France, Tonga, Canada, Japan) - On paper the most straightforward group. It's hard to see New Zealand or France being troubled by these three minnows but the head-to-head should be interesting. Of all the Northern Hemisphere teams, France know how to hurt the All Blacks, having beaten them on their home turf four times. The pressure on New Zealand to perform is immense (the thought of living up to their "RWC chokers" tag in front of their home support must be almost inconceivable), but their last couple of Tri Nations games won't have done much for their confidence. And then there's the small matter of "that" quarter final in 2007. There are rumours that Lievremont is planning to rest his key players for the match (something Scotland did to the All Blacks in 2007 and which a lot of Kiwis felt was to blame for their team's early exit) but hopefully that won't happen. Of course the home team should win but it's sure to be one of the stand out matches of the group stages.

GROUP B (England, Scotland, Argentina, Romania, Georgia) - England's defence coach, Mike Ford, calls this the Group of Death. That might be overstating things a little but there's definitely three teams who are all capable of knocking over each other on the day. Argentina seem on the wane but they've always saved their best performances for the World Cup; England have eventually recovered some of their old form; Scotland have never failed to make it past the group stages. You'd imagine that Scotland v England on October 1st is going to determine the final rankings, with the loser likely having the dubious honour of facing New Zealand in the quarter final. England's build-ups been stronger but Scotland always save their best games for the Auld Enemy and the last six meetings between the two have seen 3 wins to England, 2 to the Scots and one draw, so nothing's certain. The joker in this group is Georgia - a dangerous team on the rise who could easily trip up one of the higher ranked teams, just as they almost did in 2007 where they gave Ireland an almighty fright.

GROUP C (Australia, Ireland, Italy, USA, Russia) - It's hard to see the high-flying Wallabies having much trouble in this group. Ireland however are a different matter. They've had a dire build-up, losing their four warm-ups and with the memory of exiting at this stage four years ago at a time where they were being heralded as possible world champions (mainly by themselves it must be said) forever seared on their collective consciousness. Ireland's self-proclaimed "golden generation" has so far failed to deliver on the world stage and this will be the last chance for ageing stars like O'Driscoll, O'Gara and O'Connell to make their mark. The USA are no match for them on paper but how many teams would fancy playing the Americans on the 10th anniversary of September 11th?! Italy look the most likely to trip up the Irish. It's not many months since a 78th minute O'Gara drop goal was needed to avoid an ignominious defeat at the hands of the Azzurri. This year's Six Nations also saw the Italians beat France so nobody should write them off.

GROUP D (South Africa, Wales, Samoa, Fiji, Namibia) - For me, this is the real Group of Death. South Africa are defending champions and should easily top this pool. I say should, but the Boks are an ageing bunch, short on both confidence and form, plus saddled with the most clueless coach in world rugby, so nothing should be taken for granted. For Wales, this group is a nightmare, quite literally. They went out at the group stage in 2007 at the hands of Fiji, and Samoa knocked them out at the same stage in 1991 (and beat them again in 1999 when Wales hosted the tournament). With their confidence-boosting win against the Wallabies in July you know the Pacific Islanders are targeting a place in the quarter finals. Can Wales conquer the ghosts of RWCs past this time? I say no. Their dismal RWC track record will continue and the biggest upset of the group stage will happen here when they're pipped by Samoa.

What does everyone else think? Any other upsets on the horizon?