Week Five: Predictions

Andrew: 21/27 (78%)
Kynan: 18/27 (67%)

Andrew's Predictions

Chiefs vs Crusaders - Crusaders by 5
Waratahs vs Lions - Waratahs by 12
Brumbies vs Sharks - Brumbies by 5
Bulls vs Highlanders - Bulls by 20
Stormers vs Hurricanes - Stormers by 5
Reds vs Force - Reds by 15

Kynan's Predictions

Chiefs vs Crusaders - Chiefs by 10
Waratahs vs Lions - Waratahs by 5
Brumbies vs Sharks - Sharks by 2
Bulls vs Highlanders - Bulls by 20
Stormers vs Hurricanes - Hurricanes by 2
Reds vs Force - Reds by 5

There has typically been about 2 upsets a week - so I'm going out on a limb and calling the upsets: Sharks and Hurricanes to win. I don't consider the Chiefs beating the Crusaders to be an upset - they've had their number for several years now.

Week Five: Kynan's Team

NO POOFTAHS - Facebook S14

*New buys in italics

FR Tatafu Polatu-Nau (WAR) - $1,242,500
FR Andrew Hore (HUR) - $1,337,500


LK Michael Paterson (HUR) - $987,500
LK Romano Graham (CHF) - $605,000


LF Pierre Spies (CHF) - $1,135,000
LF Rocky Elsom (BRU) - $1,222,500


HV Matt Giteau (BRM) - $1,137,500
HV Morne Steyn (RED) - $1,437,500


CT James O'Connor (FOR) - $1,110,000
CT Richard Kahui (CHF) - $1,137,500


OB Israel Dagg (HGH) - $950,000
OB Zac Guilford (CRU) - $817,500


Team Value: $13,200,000
Cash in Bank: $69,500

So I fell a little flat last week - low scores, a slight fall in the ranks. But I've been reinvigorated by the return of Steyn and Spies - and they made me a tidy sum too. I bought them right after the lock of the last round and their combined value has risen over $700,000. A great lesson in trading when the rounds lock and not a minute later. Hopefully those above me in the rankings weren't so wise and suffered some big money losses.

Also, I ditched the over-hyped and under-performing Nonu; he's not about to make an impact against the best defense in the competition. The other SA teams have had his number this year, and the Stormers will be no different. Maybe I'll pick him up again after his bye.

Other than that, I've largely persisted with the same team - they let me down, but I don't think it will happen two weeks in a row... I hope.

Week Five: Andrew's Team

THE ORCADIANS - Facebook S14

*New buys in italics

FR Ti'i Paulo (CRU) - $1,145,000
FR Stephen Moore (BRM) - $1,107,500

LK Andries Bekker (STM) - $1, 325,000

LK Nathan Sharpe (FOR) - $1,025,000

LF Rocky Elsom (BRM) - $1,240,000

LF Liam Messam (CHF) - $1,187,500

HV Daniel Carter (CRU) - $1,327,500

HV Morne Steyn (BUL) - $1,392,500

CT Adam Ashley-Cooper (BRM) - $1,315,000

CT Wynand Olivier (BUL) - $1, 360,000

OB Lelia Masaga (CHF) - $1,185,000

OB Sitiveni Sivivatu (CHF) - $1,202,500

Team Value: $14,812,500

Cash in Bank: $5,150

With one exception, I'm feeling very happy about the look of my team this week. I made four transfers. The first, Morne Steyn, was made as soon as the last round locked. His price has risen a ridiculous $400,000 since then, reflecting his position (thus far at least) as the one player you simply must have in your team to be competitive this season.

I decided to grit my teeth and plump for Wynand Olivier - after his price had risen so outrageously, unfortunately. He's the top performing centre, but I was severely tempted to buy James O'Connor, who, despite playing for a losing team, has been earning excellent points at only a fraction of the cost. If the Bulls were up against someone more formidable than a Cowanless and much-changed Highlanders lineup, I might have chosen otherwise, but surely Olivier's a good bet to continue his one-try-per-game habits for another week.

I've decided to ditch Michael Paterson. Too hasty? Possibly. But the weeks where he racked up serious points saw him playing in the backrow. Last week he was at lock and earned a big fat zero and he's in the same position this week. I his stead, I chose Nathan Sharpe (somewhat recklessly before the Force lineup was announced), whose currently about the same price. Sharpie's the third best scoring on lock on average, and (just like the aforementioned O'Connor) doing sterling work in a lost cause with the Western Force. Despite the Force's dire run so far (and with no sign that anything's about to change anytime soon), his solid line-out work and all-round work ethic, mean he's a good guarantee of 150-200 points per game.

With the Blues on a bye, I sold Mealamu as soon as the round locked last week, which left me with a front row spot to fill, and the one selection that I'm not 100% happy with. I'd much rather have had Polatu-Nau, Hore or Liebenburg, but with the little money I had left (thanks to Olivier), I could just about afford Stephen Moore (leaving only a paltry $5000 in the bank). The Wallaby hooker's lack of form seems symptomatic of the general malaise afflicting the rest of the Brumbies, but Moore does have an uncanny knack of scoring tries (2 in 4 games so far) and he was the best of the bunch within my price range.

I'm up to second in the Facebook S14 Division, with a world rank of 123. Looking down the teamsheet, I feel confident this week about overtaking Wombat XV to claim the league's top spot and maybe even breaking into the world top 100. We shall see...

Remember next week sees the Reds and Chiefs on a bye, so sell your players from these teams as soon as this round locks, and buy any certain starters from the Blues or Cheetahs - I'll probably get Mealamu back while his price is relatively low. We're allocated another 20 trades after this round locks, which personally will be very welcome.

Week Five: Team Announcements

CHIEFS vs CRUSADERS, HAMILTON, FRIDAY 08:35

Chiefs – 15 Mils Muliaina (c), 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Callum Bruce, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Brendon Leonard, 8 Colin Bourke, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Craig Clarke, 4 Romana Graham, 3 Nathan White, 2 Aled de Malmanche, 1 Sona Taumalolo.

Subs: 16 Vern Kamo, 17 Toby Smith, 18 Culum Retallick, 19 Luke Braid, 20 Junior Poluleuligaga, 21 Mike Delany, 22 Dwayne Sweeney.

Crusaders – 15 Jared Payne, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Kahn Fotuali’i, 8 Kieran Read, 7 George Whitelock, 6 Richie McCaw (c), 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Ti’i Paulo, 1 Wyatt Crockett.

Subs: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Thomas Waldrom, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Adam Whitelock, 22 Colin Slade.

WARATAHS vs LIONS, SYDNEY, FRIDAY 10:40

Waratahs – 15 Sosene Anesi, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Tom Carter, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Daniel Halangahu, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Phil Waugh (c), 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Tatafu Polota-Bau, 1 Benn Robinson.

Subs: 16 Damien Fitzpatrick, 17 Sekope Kepu, 18 Will Caldwell, 19 Ben Mowen, 20 Josh Holmes, 21 Kurtley Beale, 22 Rob Horne.

Lions – 15 Earl Rose, 14 Tonderai Chavhanga, 13 Walter Venter, 12 Doppies la Grange, 11 Wandile Mjekevu, 10 Carlos Spencer, 9 JP Joubert, 8 Todd Clever, 7 Derick Minnie, 6 Cobus Grobbelaar (c), 5 Willem Stoltz, 4 Franco van der Merwe, 3 Kevin Buys, 2 Hannes Franklin, 1 Heinke van der Merwe.

Subs: 16 Charles Emslie, 17 JC Janse van Rensburg, 18 Jacques Lombaard, 19 Robert Kruger, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Burton Francis, 22 Wigan Pekeur.

BRUMBIES vs SHARKS, CANBERRA, SATURDAY 10:40

Brumbies – 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Pat McCabe, 13 Stirling Mortlock, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Francis Fainifo, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Josh Valentine, 8 Stephen Hoiles (c), 7 George Smith, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 Ben Hand, 3 Salesi Maafu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Alexander.

Subs: 16 Huia Edmonds, 17 Guy Shepherdson, 18 Justin Harrison, 19 Mitchell Chapman, 20 Patrick Phibbs, 21 Matt Toomua, 22 Tyrone Smith.

Sharks – 15. Stefan Terblanche, 14. Odwa Ndungane, 13. Adrian Jacobs, 12 Riaan Swanepoel, 11. JP Pietersen, 10, Andy Goode, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8. Ryan Kankowski, 7. Willem Alberts, 6. Jacques Botes, 5. Johann Muller, 4. Steven Sykes, 3 John Smit (c), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.

Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Alistair Hargreaves, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Keegan Daniel , 21 Rory Kockott, 22 Waylon Murray.

BULLS vs HIGHLANDERS, PRETORIA, SATURDAY 17:05

Bulls – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Gerhard vd Heever, 13 Stephan Dippenaar, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Derick Kuün, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Gary Botha, 1 Gurthrö Steenkamp.

Subs: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Rossouw de Klerk, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Deon Stegmann, 20 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 21 Jaco van der Westhuyzen, 22 Pedrie Wannenburg.

Highlanders – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Kenny Lynn, 12 Jason Shoemark, 11 Fetu’u Vainikolo, 10 Matt Berquist, 9 Sean Romans, 8 Steven Stephano, 7 Alando Soakai, 6 Tim Boys, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Chris King, 2 Jason MacDonald, 1 Jamie Mackintosh.

Subs: 16 Jason Rutledge, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Hayden Triggs, 19 John Hardie, 20 Scott Cowan, 21 Robbie Robinson, 22 James Paterson.

STORMERS vs HURRICANES, CAPE TOWN, SATURDAY 19:10

Stormers – 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Sireli Naqelevuki, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Anton van Zyl, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Wicus Blaauw.

Subs: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 JC Kritzinger, 18 De Kock Steenkamp, 19 Pieter Louw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Lionel Cronje, 22 Gio Aplon.

Hurricanes – 15 Cory Jane, 14 Tamati Ellison, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 David Smith, 10 Willie Ripia, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Rodney So’oialo, 7 Scott Waldrom, 6 Victor Vito, 5 Michael Paterson, 4 Bryn Evans, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Jacob Ellison.

Subs: 16 Dane Coles, 17 John Schwalger, 18 Jeremy Thrush, 19 Karl Lowe, 20 Tyson Keats, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Alapati Leiua.

REDS vs WESTERN FORCE, BRISBANE, SUNDAY 08:30

Reds – 15 Peter Hynes, 14 Luke Morahan, 13 Digby Ioane, 12 Anthony Faingaa, 11 Brando Va’aulu, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Leroy Houston, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Scott Higginbotham, 5 Van Humphries, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Ben Daley.

Subs: 16 Sean Hardman, 17 Greg Holmes, 18 Adam Byrnes, 19 Jake Schatz, 20 Ben Lucas, 21 Morgan Turinui, 22 Will Chambers.

Force – TBC