Week Eight: Predictions

Andrew: 37/46 (80%)
Kynan: 32/46 (70%)

Andrew's Predictions

Hurricanes vs Crusaders - Crusaders by 7
Force vs Stomers - Stormers by 10
Blues vs Bulls - Blues by 3
Chiefs vs Highlanders - Chiefs by 12
Waratahs vs Cheetahs - Waratahs by 12
Sharks vs Reds - Sharks by 5

Kynan's Predictions

Hurricanes vs Crusaders - Crusaders by less than 7
Force vs Stomers - Stormers by less than 7
Blues vs Bulls - Bulls by less than 7
Chiefs vs Highlanders - Chiefs by 13+
Waratahs vs Cheetahs - Waratahs by 13+
Sharks vs Reds - Sharks by less than 7

Week Eight: Kynan's Team

NO POOFTAHS - Facebook S14

*New buys in italics

FR Tatafu Polatu-Nau (WAR) - $1,297,500
FR Andrew Hore (HUR) - $1,317,500

LK Dean Mumm (WAR) - $1,157,500
LK Anthony Boric (BLU) - $1,007,500

LF Pierre Spies (CHF) - $1,355,000
LF Richard McCaw (CRU) - $1,042,500

HV Daniel Halangahu (RED) - $1,082,500
HV Dan Carter (CRU) - $1,232,500

CT James O'Connor (FOR) - $1,235,000
CT Richard Kahui (CHF) - $1,147,500

OB Israel Dagg (HGH) - $1,157,500
OB Lelia Masaga (CHF) - $1,127,500

Team Value: $14,287,500
Cash in Bank: $97,250

I sold Morne Steyn! Away from Loftus for a few weeks, I don't think he's going to be a big earner (he hasn't been for the past 2 weeks). I brought in the old guns, Carter and McCaw. They haven't been spectacular, but as the competition progresses, I feel they're going to become more and more dominant and we'll see the Crusaders turn it on as the semis approach.

My other change brings in Richard Kahui. The Chiefs/Highlanders game is sure to be a try-fest and maybe he can bag a hattrick like he did against the Lions. I'm looking for big numbers from Masaga, Dagg and Kahui... 600 pts each!

Also, on the advice of my esteemed comrade, Andrew, I've sold Cooper for Halangahu. Also, Cooper's playing against the Sharks... he's not going to score anything in a big loss as the Sharks continue their march to the semi's.

Week Eight: Andrew's Team

THE ORCADIANS - Facebook S14

*New buys in italics

FR Keven Mealamu (BLU) - $1,232,500
FR Andrew Hore (HUR) - $1,317,500

LK Andries Bekker (STM) - $1, 377,500

LK Dean Mumm (WAR) - $1,157,500

LF Pierre Spies (BUL) - $1,355,000

LF Liam Messam (CHF) - $1,115,000

HV Daniel Carter (CRU) - $1,232,500

HV Daniel Halangahu (WAR) - $1,082,500

CT James O'Connor (FOR) - $1,362,500

CT Wynand Olivier (BUL) - $1,485,000

OB Rene Ranger (BLU) - $1,052,500

OB Israel Dagg (HGH) - $1,157,500

Team Value: $14,927,500

Cash in Bank: $1,670,150

My team did well last week - hanging onto to second in the league and rising to a season's best world ranking of 43. We're now at the halfway point in the competition and so I decided to shake things up a little.

Buying back Bekker was a no brainer, especially since he was cheap coming off the bye - not that money is really an issue for me any longer. It was hard to choose who to hold onto between Mumm and Sharpe, but I plumped for the former in the end, mainly because I can see the Waratahs putting the Cheetahs to the sword.

Losing Rocky Elsom necessitated an enforced change among the loosies. I replaced him with Liam Messam, due in no small part to the Chiefs vs Highlanders match-up this weekend, in which he has the potential to thrive.

I had a wholesale clear-out of my halves with Giteau was on a bye and my decision to take a break from Morne Steyn (see my article on the subject). Of course this has the potential to come back and bite me in spectacular fashion, but if it works, it should give me the jump on the majority of players. Carter's Test Rugby form has been steadily improving all season, so he was an obvious replacement for one slot. For the other, I chose Halangahu who has really impressed over the last few weeks and against the Cheetahs, he should do well - though the forecast for a wet game might factor into that.

I was very tempted to sell Wynand Olivier, as, like Steyn, I feel he's been underperforming of late, but I decided to hang onto him for one more match at least. The only other change in the backs is the introduction of Rene Ranger for Drew Mitchell. This was a hard choice, but the Blues' man's form has been so devastating lately that I had to get him in somewhere, and I think the open nature of the Chiefs vs Highlanders game will suit Dagg's strengths, whereas Mitchell might struggle if the Waratahs vs Cheetahs game is a washout.

Remember that next week sees the Sharks and Hurricanes on a bye, with the Brumbies and Lions returning to the fray. Good luck everyone!

Why You Should Drop Morne Steyn

I think the time has come to look past the hype and drop Morne Steyn from your fantasy team. Madness? I don't think so, and here's why.

Steyn's performance in the first rounds of the competition was nothing short of astounding. His initial consecutive scores of 675, 700 and 575 are, as far as I know, unparalleled in the history of Test Rugby. But then what the Hell happened? The Bulls are still winning alright, but Steyn's point scoring has slumped alarmingly. If you follow this blog, you'll know that I post weekly stats of the top players in each position based on their average scores, which I find much more useful than the total score ranking provided by Test Rugby. Normally this system allows a player to have an out-of-the-ordinary good or bad week and still show a fair reflection of their form. The problem with Steyn is that his initial form is now unfairly weighting his score to such a degree that his overall average score, and continued presence as the best average half, though undeniably true, are somewhat misleading.

Steyn's last three rounds read like this: 300, 150, 290 - an average score of 247. Not too shabby, you might think. Just for fun, I applied the same formula to some of the other halves, and look at the results:

Dan Carter 427
Daniel Halangahu 362
Will Genia 308
Matt Giteau 292
Ruan Pienaar 290
Stephen Brett 280
Brendon Leonard 265
Quade Cooper 255
Peter Grant 253
Morne Steyn 246

Over the last three rounds, Steyn is only the 10th best performing half (below even Peter Grant, for Heaven's sake!), yet I'd bet that there's barely a Test Rugby player without him in their team.

Personally, I've sold him already and I recommend all of you to do likewise. If money's an issue for you, then replace him with Daniel Halangahu and you'll have over $500,000 to spend elsewhere! I'm not saying I won't buy him back at some stage, I will, but it probably won't be until the Bulls are finished with their Australasian tour and host the Lions at Loftus in round 11. Until then...

See the light, drop Steyn!

Week Eight: Team Announcements

HURRICANES vs CRUSADERS, WELLINGTON, FRIDAY 06:35 GMT

Hurricanes – 15 Cory Jane, 14 Tamati Ellison, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Willie Ripia, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Karl Lowe, 6 Victor Vito, 5 Michael Paterson, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore (c), 1 John Schwalger.

Subs: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Anthony Perenise, 18 Bryn Evans, 19 Scott Waldrom, 20 Tyson Keats, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Jason Kawau.

Crusaders – 15 Colin Slade, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read, 7 George Whitelock, 6 Richie McCaw (c), 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Ti'i Paulo, 1 Wyatt Crockett.

Subs: 16 Daniel Perrin, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Chris Jack, 19 Thomas Waldrom, 20 Kahn Fotuali'i, 21 Adam Whitelock, 22 Jared Payne.

FORCE vs STORMERS, PERTH, FRIDAY 10:05 GMT

Stormers – 15 Gio Aplon, 14 Sireli Naqelevuki, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Tim Whitehead, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger (c), 5 Andries Bekker, 4 De Kock Steenkamp, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 JC Kritzinger.

Subs: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Eusebio Guinazu, 18 Anton van Zyl, 19 Pieter Louw, 20 Dewaldt Duvenage, 21 Willem de Waal, 22 Frikkie Welsh.

Force – 15 James O’Connor, 14 Scott Staniforth, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Ryan Cross, 11 Mark Bartholomeusz, 10 David Hill, 9 Chris O’Young, 8 Matt Hodgson, 7 David Pocock, 6 Ben McCalman, 5 Nathan Sharpe (c), 4 Tom Hockings, 3 Tim Fairbrother, 2 Ben Whittaker, 1 Pek Cowan.

Subs: 16 Nathan Charles, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Richard Stanford, 19 Richard Brown, 20 Justin Turner, 21 Sam Harris, 22 Haig Sare.

BLUES vs BULLS, AUCKLAND, SATURDAY 04:30 GMT

Blues – 15 Isaia Toeava, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Rene Ranger, 12 Benson Stanley, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Viliami Ma'afu, 7 Serge Lilo, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Anthony Boric, 4 Kurtis Haiu, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu (c), 1 Charlie Faumuina.

Subs: 16 Tom McCartney, 17 Tevita Mailau, 18 Filo Paulo, 19 Peter Saili, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Luke McAlister, 22 Paul Williams.

Bulls – 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Gerhard van der Heever, 13 Jaco Pretorius, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Gary Botha, 1 Gurthrö Steenkamp.

Subs: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Bees Roux, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Derick Kuün/Jaco Engels, 20 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 21 Jaco van der Westhuyzen, 22 Pedrie Wannenburg.

CHIEFS vs HIGHLANDERS, MT MAUNGANUI, SATURDAY 06:35 GMT

Chiefs – 15 Mils Muliaina (c), 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Stephen Donald, 11 Dwayne Sweeney, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Brendon Leonard, 8 Sione Lauaki, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Culum Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke, 3 Ben Afeaki, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Sona Taumalolo.

Subs: 16 Vern Kamo, 17 Toby Smith, 18 Jarrad Hoeata, 19 Colin Bourke 20 Junior Poluleuligaga, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Tim Nanai-Williams.

Highlanders – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Kenny Lynn, 12 Jason Shoemark, 11 Fetu'u Vainikolo, 10 Robbie Robinson, 9 Jimmy Cowan (c), 8 Steven Setephano, 7 Alando Soakai, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Hayden Triggs, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Clint Newland, 2 Jason Rutledge, 1 Chris King.

Subs: 16 Jason Macdonald, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Joe Tuineau, 19 Tim Boys/John Hardie, 20 Sean Romans, 21 Mat Berquist, 22 James Paterson.

WARATAHS vs CHEETAHS, SYDNEY, SATURDAY 08:40 GMT

Waratahs – 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Daniel Halangahu, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 Chris Alcock, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Dean Mumm (c), 3 Al Baxter, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.

Subs: 16 Damien Fitzpatrick, 17 Sekope Kepu, 18 Will Caldwell, 19 Locky McCaffrey, 20 Josh Holmes, 21 Tom Carter, 22 Sosene Anesi.

Cheetahs – 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Danwel Demas, 13 Robert Ebersohn, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Naas Olivier, 9 Tewis de Bruyn, 8 Ashley Johnson, 7 Barend Pieterse, 6 Hendro Scholtz, 5 Walti Vermeulen, 4 Nico Breedt, 3 WP Nel, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Wian du Preez.

Subs: 16 Ryno Barnes, 17 Coenie Oosthuizen, 18 Davon Raubenheimer, 19 Kabamba Floors, 20 Sarel Pretorius, 21 Corné Uys, 22 Riaan Viljoen.

SHARKS vs REDS, DURBAN. SATURDAY 15:05 GMT

Sharks – 15 Patrick Lambie, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Stefan Terblanche, 12 Riaan Swanepoel, 11 JP Pietersen, 10 Andy Goode, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Alistair Hargreaves, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 John Smit (c).

Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Beast Mtawarira, 18 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Rory Kockott, 21 Andries Strauss, 22 Lwazi Mvovo.

Reds – 15 Peter Hynes, 14 Luke Morahan, 13 Will Chambers, 12 Anthony Faingaa, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Scott Higginbotham, 5 Van Humphries, 4 Adam Byrnes, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Sean Hardman, 1 Ben Daley.

Subs: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 Greg Holmes, 18 Jack Kennedy, 19 Rob Simmons, 20 Leroy Houston, 21 Ben Lucas, 22 Rod Davies.