Week Seven: Kynan's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Tatafu Polatu-Nau (AUS) - $1,077,500
FR Bismarck Du Plessis (RSA) - $1,232,500

LK James Horwill (AUS) - $1,190,000
LK Victor Matfield (RSA) - $1,270,000

LF George Smith (AUS) - $1,160,000
LF Pierre Spies (RSA) - $1,255,000

HV Morne Steyn (RSA) - $1,167,500
HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,295,000

CT Jacque Fourie (RSA) - $1,232,500
CT James O'Conner (AUS) - $885,000

OB Adam Ashley-Cooper (AUS) - $1,200,000
OB Bryan Habana (RSA) - $1,242,500

Team Value: $14,207,500
Cash in Bank: $852,500

I'm sticking with the old policy of "why change a winning team?" I had 2 trades left and was forced to use 1 on Stephen Moore... I could make one more change, but honestly, I don't who I would really switch out. I could do Barnes for O'Connor, but I'm thinking the boy's going to play a blinder to make up for his last two crappy showings.

It's actually really hard to say what is going to happen in this game. Australia are at the very end of their rope... another home loss would mean they've been white-washed at home by their Southern opponents. Robbie Deans has made 7 changes in an effort to stop the downward spiral, but really, how much is the introduction of a bunch of also-rans really going to have on the team? The Springboks, on the other hand, have gone with consistency (just like me) - making only one injury enforced change, and let's face it, JP Pieterson never touches the ball so whether it is he or Ndungane on the field, is anyone really going to notice?

I'm expecting a tighter game with more kicking as Australia try to reintroduce structure into their play. Hopefully South Africa don't get crazy and try run everything because of their success last week. They are dismal when they step back from their powerful structures, which ironically enable them to play a more open game.

Looking for big things from my man Spies after a quite week last Saturday. I'm expecting at least 2 tries from him.

Week Six Dream Team

FR Bismarck du Plessis (SAF) 265
FR John Smit (SAF) 200

LK Mark Chisholm (AUS) 120
LK Andries Bekker (SAF) 120

LF Rocky Elsom (AUS) 340
LF Pierre Spies (SAF) 270

HV Matt Giteau (AUS) 635
HV Fourie du Preez (SAF) 500

CT Jaque Fourie (SAF) 310
CT Jean De Villiers (SAF) 260

OB Bryan Habana (SAF) 510
OB Lachlan Turner (AUS) 430

5 try bonus 200

Total Points 4160

Marching on to glory

The Springboks continued their inevitable march on to TriNations glory by completely smashing the disheartened Wallabies. They were too clinical, too powerful and too fast for the hapless Aussies, who continued their bewildering run of errors - spilling the ball 13 times, mostly at crucial junctures.

Robbie Deans must be tearing his hair out - his supposedly professional players continually make schoolboy errors. Richard Brown's catching was downright embarrassing. But all those beginning to bay for his head need to take a step back and realize this is a Springbok team in their prime. They have 7 players with more than 50 caps - world cup winners all of them. They are the best team in the world by some distance right now, and it's no real shame to lose to them. New Zealand are also no slouches... Australia is just in an unfortunate position to have to play the world number 1 and 2 sides week in and week out. If they were playing the Six Nations, Australia would be almost guaranteed winners. There's no shame in being number 3 right now.

It will be interesting to see if Deans changes his side much for next week's game in Brisbane. The Boks look an unstoppable juggernaut right now. They have defied critics by producing the first bonus point try haul of the competition, and Australia will be more demoralized than ever this week after losing four on the trot (including 2 home games).

Henry will be quivering a little over in New Zealand too. He'll be cheering the Aussies on this week because the thought of facing a bouyant Springbok team looking to be the first side to go through a 6 game TriNations undefeated will terrify him. These Boks are true champions, and the rest of the world looks like it will have to be content to swim in their wake for the next year or so.

Congrats to Fourie and Habana for scoring three tries off what amounted to little more than three touches of the ball. True class.

Tri-Nations Predictions: Week Six

Andrew's Prediction

Despite the injury toll and Deans fulfilling his promise to cull his underperforming regulars, this won't be the walkover some are predicting. Like a wounded and cornered kangaroo the Aussies are a dangerous prospect. With Robinson replacing the aging Baxter, the Aussies will be seeking parity, perhaps even dominance, at scrumtime. The Wallaby defence has been outstanding and that's not going to change, especially against a side who have struggled to score tries. O'Connor, Cross, Hynes, Turner, Cooper & Giteau is an impressive and potentially lethal backline, if the Wallabies can keep their hands on the ball and find some space - expect Morne Steyn to get a lot of practise improving his girlie tackling. Giteau's had a mediocre tournament thus far, if the little general finally regains his form and the Australian's can keep a lid on their ill-discipline then they can win this.

Unfortunately, the Springboks are also like a wounded kangaroo - they'll kick you to death. They're rightly brimming with confidence, but... after a few weeks of sane silence, De Villiers is starting to run his stupid mouth of again, and the madness is returning to his selections. There's surely no tactical reason to replace Steyn with Pienaar, so either it's the beginning of Frans' punishment for choosing to eat croissants for breakfast for the next couple of years or it's the patented De Villers insanity - I suppose we should just be grateful that it's not Earl Rose. Morne Steyn's stranglehold on the flyhalf jersey means we're unlikely to see a change in tactics, so it'll be more of the same dreary old grind. The Australians are going to be under the cosh for 80 minutes, but against all the odds, the Wallabies are going to rally in the final quarter and win this.

Australia by 5. Matt Giteau top Test Rugby points scorer.

Kynan's Prediction

More delusional thinking from Andrew. South Africa are unstoppable right now. They are playing winning rugby and have proven themselves too aggressive and powerful to be overcome by their easily rattled rivals from Down Under.

There have also been some indications that some running rugby is in order, so don't be surprised if Habana and Foruie actually touch the ball this week. I've selected them both on that assumption - so here's hoping I'm right.

Either way, Australia are a team in disarray right now, and losing Sharpe and Barnes will be a bigger blow than they care to admit. Giteau has looked off the boil, leaving Barnes as the only real playmaker, and Sharpe is the muscle in their pack. He has the iron to stand up to the likes of Bismarck and Bakkies - without him, it really could be a slaughter.

And let's not forget, South Africa's only two TriNations victories in Aussieland have come in Perth...

South Africa by 12. Spies top TR points scorer.

Week Six: Andrew's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Stephen Moore (AUS) - $1,162,500
FR Bismarck du Plessis (SAF) - $1,225,000

LK Victor Matfield (SAF) - $1,262,500
LK Mark Chisholm (AUS) - $1,062,500

LF Pierre Spies (SAF) - $1,245,000
LF George Smith (AUS) - $1,177,500

HV Fourie du Preez (SAF) - $1,120,000
HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,295,000

CT Jaque Fourie (SAF) - $1,220,000
CT James O'Connor (AUS) - $887,500

OB Peter Hynes (AUS) - $1,137,500
OB Bryan Habana (SAF) - $1,205,000

Team Value: $14,000,000
Cash in Bank: $986,000

I had to make a lot of forced changes to keep up with injured (and culled) Wallabies. With money no longer an object, I could easily afford all the players I wanted, but transfers are getting tight so I'll be hoping for minimal team changes next week from both these sides. Matfield, Spies, du Plessis all pick themselves. Chisholm has the potential to get a similar total to Sharpe's usual haul and he scores a lot of tries for a lock. I chose du Preez over Steyn at HV. He's a class player at any time but I'm hoping that reaching his test half-century will bring out the best in him - and I still believe that Steyn is a very average international flyhalf. Fourie and De Villiers are pretty neck-and-neck in points this tournament, and in the end I plumped for Fourie because of his awesome 1970s haircut. For the backs, I picked Hynes because he was a TR-points scoring machine in his cameo last week and Habana because with Pienaar at fullback he might even get passed the ball... but I'm not counting on it.

Week Six: Kynan's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Stephen Moore (AUS) - $1,162,500
FR Bismarck Du Plessis (RSA) - $1,225,000

LK James Horwill (AUS) - $1,197,500
LK Victor Matfield (RSA) - $1,262,500

LF George Smith (AUS) - $1,177,500
LF Pierre Spies (RSA) - $1,245,000

HV Morne Steyn (RSA) - $1,160,000
HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,295,000

CT Jacque Fourie (RSA) - $1,220,000
CT James O'Conner (AUS) - $887,500

OB Adam Ashley-Cooper (AUS) - $1,205,000
OB Bryan Habana (RSA) - $1,205,000

Team Value: $14,242,500
Cash in Bank: $812,500

So I'm down to 2 trades... I'm not completely happy with my team, but I don't feel like risking it. I took a risk on Habana already - I'm sure Hynes will score five times what he does, but if SA can cut loose and really take it to the Aussies, and with Pienaar at fullback (he may actually pass the ball, unlike Steyn) I think Habana just might get in a run or two, and hopefully a try.

I'm looking for an improved showing from O'Connor too - he was dire last week. But his elusive running has been a thorn in the Springboks flesh thus far. Also gambling on a big showing from Jacque Fourie. Again, I believe Pienaar will slot into flyhalf during phase play to try get the backline moving, and Fourie may actually get one pass this game.

Injuries create havok

Those of us stretched thin on transfers have suffered even more tragedy - Barnes and Sharp (stalwarts in any decent fantasy rugby team) - have been withdrawn from Saturday's game because of injury. No immediate replacements have been named - expect Chisholm or Mumm to take the place of Sharp and maybe Ashley-Cooper to slot in for Barnes, with Cross slotting in for Ashley-Cooper, though there has been rumour of young buck Quade Cooper taking his place.

Additionally, there's potential for Elsom and O'Connor to miss the game due to niggling injuries - if that happens, then truly woe is me!

Also on the rumor mills: Lachlan Turner out, Peter Hynes in. So there could be all sorts of transfers that need to get made, which is really going to throw this competition (Fantasy Rugby, not the TriNations) wide open, as it is generally league leaders who seem to be short on trades.

On the SA front, rumor has it that Pienaar may replace Steyn at fullback. I have already purchased Steyn, so that will be a horrible blow...

All sorts of excitement for tomorrow's team announcement!

In unrelated news, Kiwi centers McAlister and Smith are out for the rest of the TriNations with a cracked cheekbone and a torn hamstring respectively. (Keep that in mind for two weeks time...)

Mental Midgets blow it again

In what has become, I'm sure, an infuriating trend for coach Robbie Deans, the Australians have managed to blow a comfortable second half lead and lose a third game on the trot. The calls for his head will begin in earnest now as his glossy sheen of infallibility tarnishes and cracks.

But is it Robbie Deans' fault? Australia are playing very well otherwise - they look organized, their players are skillful, tactically they're sound. But when the pressure's on - brain explosions all around. They had this game in the bag until Mitchell and Hynes decided to dink around near their own goal-line, passing it back and forth until the Kiwis swamped them, eventually conceding the penalty which sealed their demise. All they had to do was kick it out!

And then, once the All Blacks had gifted them possession after the final hooter, they had two opportunities to set up a drop goal right in front of the posts - surely a gimme for Matt Giteau - yet they kept spreading it wide until they knocked it on - game over.

These Australians lack what Aussies pride themselves on - mental toughness. I think of the Aussie cricket teams of the past - they would come back from anything, totally unflappable. Same with the great rugby teams of John Eales day. The current crop - fragile, fragile, fragile. Maybe they are lacking a hard-nosed leader. In pretty boys like Giteau and Barnes, they have immense talent, but these guys just aren't cut out to be team leaders. Had they been on Steve Waugh's undefeatable cricket team, he would have crushed them into bloody pulp for not killing off the Kiwis. They need a hard man to stand up and announce himself and destroy the care free attitudes that seem to exist - this notion that it's okay to lose as long as you play attractively. It's rubbish and should be treated as such.

Deans is succeeding as a tactician and coach, but not as a man manager. He has failed to instill the sense of believe and invincibility into his Aussies that his Crusaders always exhibited. I don't think the Crusaders ever lost a game when they took a lead into the second half - it was unacceptable to the players, the fans, and Robbie Deans. It needs to become unacceptable the the Aussies.

They've handed the Bledisloe to New Zealand for the 5th straight year, destroyed any remaining TriNations hopes they had, and now face two home games against the Springboks which they'll battle to win. It looks a bleak time indeed for Dingo Deans and his charges.

Tri-Nations Predictions: Week Five

Andrew's Prediction

There's a lot at stake in this one. Malcontents on both sides of the Tasman Sea are heaping a lot of pressure on their "underperforming" coaches (pretty unfair in the case of Robbie Deans but long overdue for Graham Henry) and this second Bledisloe Cup match is shaping up to be a belter.

Both nations have returning heroes - Rocky Elsom is home again after his successful Irish sojourn, while miracle man Dan Carter is back in black. Despite all the hyperbole, the latter will unquestionably make a huge difference, if only to the confidence of his teammates. Even with a ten month absence I have a feeling that Carter's going to hit the ground running, shaking off the rust and quickly dominating proceedings with his usual verve. With McAllister alongside him, expect a lot of tactical kicking as the All Blacks try to put the Aussie line-outs and, especially, scrums under pressure.

With the addition of O'Connor to a team already brimming with youthful vigour, Australia will play high risk running rugby with attackers bursting from all over the park. It'll be exciting to watch no doubt, but ultimately may prove costly. Unfortunately, it's calculating brains and cool heads not passionate flair that wins tests (why else are the Boks sitting atop the table?) and you get the feeling that the Wallabies are the one's more likely to crack. It'll be close for a while, but I expect the All Blacks to win reasonably comfortably in the end.

New Zealand by 12. Sitiveni Sivivatu top Test Rugby points scorer.

Kynan's Prediction

Everyone is talking this up as last chance hill for both teams, which is entirely inaccurate. NZ is playing away - they can still afford to lose. For Australia, to lose a home game means it's all over. Tri-Nations winners do not lose at home. If NZ win, they will actually be in the driving seat, with a rare away win and two home games still to go. South Africa has not won a Tri-Nations game in Australia for years, and we all know how tough it is to win in NZ.

All that said, Australia should not lose this game. They will be playing before 80,000 partisan supporters in Sydney - even contemplating loss is a terrible indictment of the state of their game. The All Blacks should be clear underdogs, especially after their horrendous performances of late, yet for some reason the Aussies are talking it up as an insurmountable hill that they will have to perform miracles to conquer. You're at home! Win! Stupid Aussies.

NZ have the mental edge over their trans-Tasman rivals, but it will be interesting to see if they can convert that into a solid performance. They have been shoddy in every match played this year - balls dropped left and right, poor decisions taken, discipline terrible. Australia, on the other hand, looked a poised side when playing at home. They destroyed the French side that beat the Kiwis. We expect them to be crap when playing away - that's the Aussie way.

So I'm making the only call that makes sense - Aussies to win. Anything else is unacceptable, and Rocky Elsom won't stand for it.

Australia by 4. James O'Connor top TR points scorer.

Week Five: Kynan's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Stephen Moore (AUS) - $1,172,500
FR Andrew Hore (NZL) - $1,155,000

LK Nathan Sharpe (AUS) - $1,212,500
LK Isaac Ross (NZL) - $720,000

LF George Smith (AUS) - $1,207,500
LF Richie McCaw (NZL) - $1,242,500

HV Dan Carter (NZL) - $1,272,500
HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,295,000

CT Berrick Barnes (AUS) - $1,250,000
CT James O'Conner (AUS) - $860,000

OB Adam Ashley-Cooper (AUS) - $1,172,500
OB Drew Mitchell (AUS) - $1,250,000

Team Value: $13,810,000
Cash in Bank: $920,000

So money has become no object, for some reason. James O'Connor and Isaac Ross help, but I put it down to some judicious trading in earlier rounds, buying low, selling high and all the rest of it.

I am extremely Aussie heavy, which is by stratagem more so than foresight into the game's result. Australia play three weeks in a row, so when faced with the choice between an Aussie or Kiwi of similar worth, I went Aussie (conserves trades, which are looking slim again).

Otherwise, I'm really happy with my team. I'm looking to improve on my 8th in the world rank, and have a pretty good shot at it with this selection. My only wish is Rocky Elsom - I have the money, but not the trades (though George Smith is no slouch and may outscore Rocky, but I have a good feeling about the returning monster.)

Week Five: Andrew's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Stephen Moore (AUS) - $1,167,500
FR Andrew Hore (NZL) - $1,150,000

LK Nathan Sharpe (AUS) - $1,205,000
LK Isaac Ross (NZL) - $715,000

LF Richard McCaw (NZL) - $1,240,000
LF George Smith (AUS) - $1,207,500

HV Daniel Carter (NZL) - $1,257,000
HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,295,000

CT Berrick Barnes (AUS) - $1,245,000
CT James O'Connor (AUS) - $845,000

OB Sitiveni Sivivatu (NZL) - $1,222,500
OB Drew Mitchell (AUS) - $1,250,000

Team Value: $13,800,000
Cash in Bank: $751,000

For the first time in the competition, I'm looking at my teamsheet thinking that this could be the highest scoring possible combination of players. Money's less of an issue this far into the tournament, so I was able to get all the players I wanted, regardless of price - and with both team's fielding strong line-ups most of the names chose themselves: McCaw, George Smith, Sivivatu, Ross, Hore. and, of course, Carter. I have a nagging feeling that Elsom will outscore Smith, but probably there won't be too much between them. Looking ahead, transfers are going to be tight for the next couple of weeks, so I chose Wallabies where I could - swapping the injured Mortlock (who has been an albatross round my neck this year - good riddance, Stirling) for alliterative action man Berrick Barnes and plumped for the precocious O'Connor instead of reliable old Conrad Smith.

Remember the All Blacks have a bye next week, so make sure to sell them when the round locks. Good luck!

Aussie and Kiwi Teams Announced: Rocky Returns!

Graham Henry has bowed to pressure and cleaned out his under-performing All Blacks - the only real surprise being the continued inclusion of the dire Rokocoko. He had a good game for Auckland over the weekend, but really, who can justify his test selection ahead of Cory Jane or Hosea Gear. He was diabolical in both tests versus the Boks... an NPC game is nowhere near the intensity of test rugby - expect more blunders from Big Joe come Saturday.

McAlister comes in for Nonu, who was remarkably invisible for such a big man the last few weeks, and Read gets a deserved run ahead of So'oialo, who looks like he needs to be put out to pasture (perhaps Toulon could use his fading efforts).

And, lest I forget, DAN CARTER, the world's sexiest flyhalf, has been rushed back from injury to lift the flagging New Zealand spirits. The man's a genius - expect nothing less than a masterful performance and huge Test Rugby points.

Australia are looking awesomely packed with attacking prowess. O'Connor was very nearly unstoppable against the Boks and is sure to have a field day against New Zealands sometimes suspect defense. Ashley-Cooper comes in for the injured Mortlock, which may be a blessing in disguise - the old warhorse maybe needs to join So'oialo in that pasture. And the big news - ROCKY ELSOM, the world's most destructive flanker. He is a monster of a man, and will add the grunt and thuggery missing from the Aussie breakdown. Sure, he hasn't played a game in months, but why should that slow him down? He was in stupendous form prior to his injury, and his rampaging runs are sure to grace our television screens.

ALL BLACKS: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Luke McAlister, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock. Reserves: 16 Aled de Malmanche, 17 John Afoa, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Rodney So'oialo, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Ma'a Nonu.

WALLABIES: 15 James O'Connor, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Richard Brown, 7 George Smith, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson. Reserves: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Ben Alexander, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 David Pocock, 20 Will Genia, 21 Ryan Cross, 22 Peter Hynes.

All Blacks Squad Announced

The All Blacks squad for next weekend's Tri-Nations test against Australia has been announced:

John Afoa, Daniel Carter, Jimmy Cowan, Wyatt Crockett, Aled de Malmanche, Stephen Donald, Jason Eaton, Tamati Ellison, Owen Franks, Andrew Hore, Cory Jane, Jerome Kaino, Tanerau Latimer, Brendon Leonard, Luke McAlister, Richie McCaw, Mils Muliaina, Ma'a Nonu, Kieran Read, Josevata Rokocoko, Isaac Ross, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Conrad Smith, Rodney So'oialo, Brad Thorn and Tony Woodcock.

As expected, Dan Carter has made the squad. Also of note for TR players is the omission of Neemia Tialata and Piri Weepu.

Best Players After Week Four

Top 20 Players - Average Points

OB Mitchell (AUS) - 390

LF Spies (SAF) - 378

FR du Plessis (SAF) - 328

HV M. Steyn (SAF) - 322

LF G. Smith (AUS) - 303

HV Donald (NZL) - 283
OB Sivivatu (NZL) - 275
LF McCaw (NZL) - 270

HV du Preez (SAF) - 267

CT Barnes (AUS) - 260

LK Sharpe (AUS) - 258

CT Nonu (NZL) - 242
CT C. Smith (NZL) - 237

LK Matfield (SAF) - 237

LF Kaino (NZL) - 232

HV Giteau (AUS) - 225

LK Ross (NZL) - 222

LF Brussouw (SAF) - 210

FR Mtawararia (SAF) - 193

FR Moore (AUS) - 185
FR Hore (NZL) - 185

Top 3 FRs - Average Points
FR du Plessis (SAF) - 328

FR Mtawararia (SAF) - 193

FR Moore (AUS) - 185, FR Hore (NZL) - 185

Top 3 LKs - Average Points
LK Sharpe (AUS) - 258

LK Matfield (SAF) - 237

LK Ross (NZL) - 222

Top 3 LFs - Average Points
LF Spies (SAF) - 378
LF G. Smith (AUS) - 303
LF McCaw (NZL) - 270

Top 3 HVs - Average Points
HV M. Steyn (SAF) - 322
HV Donald (NZL) - 283
HV du Preez (SAF) - 267

Top 3 CTs - Average Points
CT Barnes (AUS) - 260
CT Nonu (NZL) - 242
CT C. Smith (NZL) - 237

Top 3 OBs - Average Points
OB Mitchell (AUS) - 390
OB Sivivatu (NZL) - 275
OB Ashley-Cooper (AUS) - 183

Now that the All Blacks and Springboks have three games under their belts and the Wallabies have played two (though crucially, still none at home), the average point statistics are showing a truer reflection of who are the most valuable TR players in the 2009 Tri-Nations.

Some interesting and unexpected trends are developing. The LFs are the biggest earners on average and the sight of two first choice hookers propping up the bottom of the table and only two OBs in the entire top 20 is very strange - traditionally FRs and OBs are the best performing positions and the LFs one of the weakest. Also of note is the total absence from the top 20 of previous TR stalwarts like Habana, de Villiers, Mortlock, Frans Steyn, Muliaina, Palu, Rokocoko, Fourie, and Juan Smith. A lot of these guys are still fan-faves, as reflected in their prices, but players should perhaps think twice before picking them in the future.

Get Carter

Some bloke called Daniel Carter's been added to the All Blacks squad and he's back in the TR realm at a starting price of $1,167,500. He's certain to rise in value so if you've transfers to spare then buy him now. Even if he doesn't start a week on Saturday, you'll make a tidy profit in the interim.

Week Four Retrospective - Kynan

Predictions

Kynan - Boks by 20+. Spies top TR scorer.
Andrew - Boks by 7. Giteau top TR Scorer.

So they didn't win by 20+, but they really should have. The Boks were well on the road to a blow-out with a couple missed try scoring opportunities in the first half, before the Aussies really clamped down in the second half and kicked everything away, ruining any possibility of a spectacle. Their defense was awesome, and kudos to them for not throwing in the towel, even though the result was never in doubt.

Team Points

Kynan - 3,130 points
Andrew - 2,565 points

Thoughts

I don't know how this Bok team is going to be stopped. They are brutal at the breakdown and in defense, and the immense pressure they put on the oppostion just seems to cause them to implode. We've seen three games in a row now where the usually clinical Kiwis and Wallabies have just fallen to pieces. I thought NZ were just bad, but now I know it is just all down to pressure.

Did I mention I am number 8 in the world? I thought I'd just throw that out there for anyone who doubted my selections.

Don't forget to sell your South Africans. I'm sure their prices are way down already. There's a frustrating 2 week break now, before the Aussies get to try win a game (at home this time at least). I have already bought all my Kiwis. Money doesn't seem to be a problem anymore after my judicious trading in the first few rounds, but why risk it.

Here's a tip: Buy James O'Connor. My esteemed colleague, Andrew, picked that one and it certainly paid dividends - 350 points! As a sub!

Week Four: Dream Team

FR Bismarck du Plessis (SAF) - 370
FR John Smit (SAF) - 145

LK Victor Matfield (SAF) - 340
LK Nathan Sharpe (AUS) - 320

LF Pierre Spies (SAF) - 355
LF George Smith (AUS) - 280

HV Fourie du Preez (SAF) - 410
HV Morne Steyn (SAF) - 335

CT James O'Connor (AUS) - 350
CT Berrick Barnes (AUS) - 170

OB Drew Mitchell (AUS) - 340
OB Franscois Steyn (SAF) - 220

Total - 3,635

Tri-Nations Predictions: Week Four

Andrew's Prediction

You don't change a winning formula - even a boring, unattractive formula - so it'll be more of the same dull stuff from the Springboks on Saturday.

The Wallabies enter the game after a fortnight of stewing over a match they should have won. They've also watched the All Blacks flailing around like stranded fish in Bloemfontein and Durban and they're unlikely to be nearly as inept. Their tactical kicking will be a match for the Boks, and I expect kick-and-chase to be the order of the day from both sides - with the Aussies selecting Hynes on the bench rather than Waugh, it seems like Deans' is planning on a lot of running from his backs.

Australia will be more competitive at the line-out but you'd still expect Matfield & co to have the edge. Likewise the breakdown, where I think the Wallabies will fare better than the All Blacks did, but I expect Brussouw to shine again. George Smith and Brown will do good work too though, and the Wallabies will be a bigger threat from turnover ball. Expect to see Giteau darting past Morne Steyn at regular intervals, showing up the latter's defensive frailty.

The Springboks will start strong and quickly get the upper hand I don't think they'll be able to turn their superiority into tries and their complacency will allow the Wallabies back into the game. I think we're going to see a repeat of the first test, with Australia leading in the second half but then watching it slip from their grasp - they just don't have the confidence (arrogance?) of the Boks and, despite playing a much more attractive brand of rugby, this will prove decisive. It'll be close though and the return fixtures in Oz will be an altogether different proposition.

South Africa by 7. Matt Giteau top Test Rugby points scorer.

Kynan's Prediction

South Africa have been in a belligerent mood, intent on bludgeoning their opponents into submission at every ruck, maul and tackle. Expect more of the same, and some extremely shell-shocked Aussies.

But that Robbie Deans is a wily fellow. He'll have some tricks up his sleeve. Expect good old fashioned Crusaders kick-and-chase strategy. Fortunately, the South Africans have the kicking game to counter this. So for everyone hoping for a free flowing, open contest - maybe you better watch some Air New Zealand Cup action. Tomorrow will be all about forwards milling about in the center of the field, watching kicks fly back and forth over their heads, until someone finally makes a mistake.

Shrewd as Deans may be, let's just remember what happened the last few times the Crusaders played the Bulls in a semi-final, which will be similar in intensity to tomorrow's game. They kicked, they chased, and they were brutalized and suffocated by the same core of players making up the Springbok team. Du Preez, Steyn, Habana, Matfield, Botha and Spies - they're masters of their trade and I just cannot see Giteau and Co getting one over on them. Giteau is masterful, but he just doesn't have the muscle at the breakdown to keep him going forward. He'll be starved for ball and space, and he'll get tired and beat up from having Spies and Juan Smith running at his channel all day long, both in attack and defense, intent on smashing his amazingly resilient little body.

It's not going to be pretty, unless South Africa truly get the upper hand, then expect another hiding a la Ellis Park. I'm feeling optimistic. The Aussies think they're ready to make the step up to consistent world domination again. I say they're still a season away.

South Africa by 20 plus. Pierre Spies top TR points scorer

Week Four: Andrew's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Stephen Moore (AUS) - $1,105,000
FR Bismarck Du Plessis (SAF) - $1,202,500

LK Nathan Sharpe (AUS) - $1,110,000
LK James Horwill (AUS) - $1,117,500

LF Heinrich Brussouw (SAF) - $1,152,500
LF Juan Smith (SAF) - $1,142,500

HV Luke Burgess (AUS) - $912,500
HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,265,000

CT Stirling Mortlock (AUS) - $1,152,500
CT Jaque Fourie (SAF) - $1,255,000

OB Bryan Habana (SAF) - $1,192,500
OB Drew Mitchell (AUS) - $1,185,000

Team Value: $13,801,000
Cash in Bank: $8,500

It took all my remaining transfers to mass cull my All Blacks. I bought all my Aussie replacements within about 30 minutes of the round three lock, with only the CT position unfilled. Most of the choices speak for themselves - Moore, Sharpe, Horwill, and Mitchell all scored well in their opening game. I had no choice but to pick Burgess - whose 200 in the first test wasn't too shabby. Giteau didn't play particularly well, or score good TR points, last time but he's a "must pick" in every game he plays. By Wednesday, the Wallabies' prices were rising fast and I had to fill my one remaining open spot - CT. After much prevarication I decided on Mortlock. Although Barnes eclipsed him in the first round, I'm giving the old warhorse one more chance to shine.

Aussie Team Announced

After lots of waiting, the Australian team has been announced, and features only one change from their last game - Phil Waugh has been dropped from the bench to accomodate Peter Hynes. (Which I am smiling about - all my predictions are in the starting line up).

If you haven't bought your Aussies, it's probably too late for you. Their prices are sky high, and you may be reduced to fielding bench players, or worse.

It's a strong team, a settled team. They destroyed the French, but were very poor in the second half aganst the All Blacks. But they have a great catching and kicking game, something the Kiwis have neglected over many seasons now. In Giteau, Barnes and Mortlock they have as much tactical kicking prowess as the Boks, and Mitchell and Ashley-Cooper are supreme in the air (must be all the League exposure).

It's going to be a tight one, assuming the Wallabies can withstand the extreme pressure the Boks will place on them without too many brain explosions.

Australia – 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Stirling Mortlock (c), 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith, 6 Richard Brown, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Subs: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Ben Alexander, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 David Pocock, 20 Will Genia, 21 Peter Hynes, 22 James O’Connor.

Week Four: Kynan's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Stephen Moore (AUS) - $1,105,000
FR Bismarck Du Plessis (SAF) - $1,202,500

LK Nathan Sharpe (AUS) - $1,110,000
LK Victor Matfield (SAF) - $1,235,000

LF Pierre Spies (SAF) - $1,252,500
LF Richard Brown (AUS) - $775,000

HV Morne Steyn (SAF) - $1,167,500
HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,265,000

CT Berrick Barnes (AUS) - $1,167,500
CT Jean De Villiers (SAF) - $1,245,000

OB Franscois Steyn (SAF) - $1,225,000
OB Drew Mitchell (AUS) - $1,185,000

Team Value: $13,935,000
Cash in Bank: $87,500

Assuming all my selection predictions were correct (Aussie team still not announced), this team should be a humdinger. I'm untouchable -- no-one alive is going to score more than me. Sharpe is a TR demon at lock, Giteau needs no introduction, Barnes is just as good as Giteau and Mitchell was top TR scorer in Round One without even doing anything.

My only worry is Richard Brown at LF - I'm not 100 % convinced he'll even be in the matchday 22. There's been talk of Pockock getting a run against the Boks... not sure what that means. Hopefully I won't be left to rue my early buying. He was pretty much the only loosie I could afford though, so it's not as if I had a choice.

Remember, if you have the transfers, buy Aussie backline players. They are going to score more than their SA counterparts (they'll actually get the ball). Unless, of course, we have another 50 point blow-out a la Ellis Park last year. I'm not counting on it though. Australia is good this year. Deans has been working some mojo into them. I expect a close game.

Springbok Team Announced

Peter De Villiers is a new man. Or they have stripped him of all decision-making powers and he truly is a ridiculous sock-puppet controlled by John Smit's insane alter-ego.

No changes, except Olivier gets booted from the bench to make room for Pienaar (but not Ricky Januarie, who De Villiers claims proved his worth in his 2 minutes off the bench... which is positively sane for PdV!)

Morne gets another shot at proving his value beyond his kicking game. Habana and Pieterson are crying softly inside, knowing they have to spend another 80 minutes running like mad after up-and-unders hoping for a good bounce; the only possible way they are ever going to touch the ball.

I for one am glad of no changes, considering I have zero transfers left. Now I have to hope my Aussie predictions were correct, or my world ranking will slide even further. If you have the transfers and money, buy Australian backs - they'll score more TR points even though they're in for a thrashing. At least their wingers have a chance of getting the ball.

Springboks – 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (c), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Andries Bekker, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Adi Jacobs

Best Players After Week Three

With the first three weeks of the Tri-Nations over it seems a good time to look at the most important statistic in Test Rugby - players' average points per game. Of course, the Wallabies have only played once, skewing their results a bit and we'll know a lot more after next week, but here's the current standings:

Top 20 Players - Average Points
OB Mitchell (AUS) - 440
LF Spies (SAF) - 390
CT Barnes (AUS) - 350
LF G. Smith (AUS) - 325
HV M. Steyn (SAF) - 315
FR du Plessis (SAF) - 308
HV Donald (NZL) - 283
OB Sivivatu (NZL) - 275
LF McCaw (NZL) - 270
LF Brussouw (SAF) - 245
FR Moore (AUS) - 245
CT Nonu (NZL) - 242
HV Pienaar (SAF) - 240
CT C. Smith (NZL) - 237
LF Kaino (NZL) - 232
LF Palu (AUS) - 230
LK Horwill (AUS) - 230
LK Ross (NZL) - 222
HV Giteau (AUS) - 220
FR Mtawararia (SAF) - 220

Top 3 FRs - Average Points
FR du Plessis (SAF) - 308
FR Moore (AUS) - 245
FR Mtawararia (SAF) - 220

Top 3 LKs - Average Points
LK Horwill (AUS) - 230
LK Ross (NZL) - 222
LK Sharpe (AUS) - 195

Top 3 LFs - Average Points
LF Spies (SAF) - 390
LF G. Smith (AUS) - 325
LF McCaw (NZL) - 270

Top 3 HVs - Average Points
HV M. Steyn (SAF) - 315
HV Donald (NZL) - 283
HV Pienaar (SAF) - 240

Top 3 CTs - Average Points
CT Barnes (AUS) - 350
CT Nonu (NZL) - 242
CT C. Smith (NZL) - 237

Top 3 OBs - Average Points
OB Mitchell (AUS) - 440
OB Sivivatu (NZL) - 275
OB Turner (AUS) - 190

Apart from seeing which individuals are performing, it's interesting to note that the LFs are the highest scoring position thus far - in previous competitions the HVs, OBs, and FRs usually score better points than they do. But the LKs are consistent with their tradition as the weakest point scoring position in Test Rugby. Also the Springboks' place at the top of the Tri-Nations table isn't currently reflected in their points - being the least represented of the three teams - so don't be afraid to select Wallabies this week.

Week Three Retrospective - Andrew

Lessons from Round Three:

TR stars: Mtawarira (300), Sivivatu (395), M. Steyn (480), McCaw (325)

TR slackers: Botha (55), Thorn (60), J. Smith (70), De Villiers (95), Habana (70), Pietersen (55), F. Steyn (45)

New Zealand rugby is in a shambles, with the All Blacks making more rudimentary errors than the average schoolboy side, but Graham Henry and the Kiwi masses can surely take some solace in their team's Test Rugby performance. En masse they outscored the Springboks, had more players in the top 20 earners this round, and the highest scoring LK, LF, CT and top three OBs. The lesson being, even if you think the Wallabies will lose next week, don't shy from picking them.

Morne Steyn's goal kicking was tremendous and only a fool would denigrate him, but... subtract the points for those kicks and that gift of a try and he only made 155 - by comparison, McAllister scored 100 in his 35 minute appearance when the same formula is applied. In my opinion, Steyn's distribution, defence and attack threat are still lesser than Pienaar's, who'll hopefully reclaim his starting spot next week but probably won't.

I feel vindicated in predicting not a single pass reaching Habana and Pietersen. I certainly didn't see one, unless you count the pass that De Villiers chucked ten feet behind Habana late in the second half - but that may have been intended for the assistant ref. It's a crying shame when one of the world's best players doesn't put a foot wrong and still makes half the points of a hamfisted (possibly drunk?) Rokocoko. The stats don't lie and this round the All Blacks' backline scored a combined 655, compared to a whopping 170 from Habana, Pietersen and F. Steyn (thank you Morne Steyn). Scarcity of transfers means I'll still have Habana in my team next week and I'd love to see him rack up the points but I don't hold out much hope. For future reference, follow the example of their teammates and avoid Bok wingers like the plague.

If you haven't bought some Wallabies yet then do it while you can. Their prices are rising fast and will continue to do so. I gambled on most of the positions and have nearly a complete team for next week. It may come back to haunt me, but my team value has increased by over $400,000 already.

Week Three Retrospective: Kynan

Predictions

Kynan - Boks by 2. Du Plessis top TR scorer.
Andrew - All Blacks by 7. Du Plessis top TR Scorer.

Moral of the story... always back the Boks! Turns out Morne Steyn was top scorer by some ways. Also great showings from Sivivatu, McCaw and Beast, though Bismarck wasn't too shabby coming in at No. 5

Team Points

Kynan - 2,535 points
Andrew - 2,265 points

Thoughts

It was predictably a tight and brutal game, given the conditions. The stats were dominated by mobile forwards who did a lot of close-in ball carrying and tackling - all the loosies, Beast and Bismarck (except Juan Smith, who had a fantastic game - but that doesn't always translate into TR points bizarrely).

Sivivatu defied the trend and racked up a ton with some brilliant line breaks. He and Conrad Smith were the only beacon of hope for the All Blacks, and kept them in the match until late in the second half by looking consistently dangerous. On that note, I just have to add - this was the worst performance I have seen from an All Black side. They were abyssmal. Yes, the Boks were brilliant and put them under huge pressure, but the Kiwis compounded that by failing at the most basic skills required to play this sport - catching and passing. Coupled with a slew of brain explosions (they actually reminded me of Dick Muir's Sharks team - running from their own dead ball line!), the All Blacks never stood a chance. Tactically they were naive - Graham Henry defended this, claiming they played the right tactic as they couldn't match the Boks in the tactical kicking stakes, in which case I say, you got the selection wrong idiots! Rokocoko had a nightmare game. If they needed some tactical kicking, why didn't they play Cory Jane?

Under Henry and Co., this All Black team is looking sloppy, fatigued and one dimensional. Their backline has failed to spark even once this season (barring some fantastic Sivivatu runs), their forwards have been outmuscled by both the Boks and the French, their lineout is a complete disaster, and their team discipline reminds me of a Bok team pre-Jake White. Even the usually brilliant McCaw is flopping around the rucks, giving away penalty after penalty. He should have been binned on Saturday, personally giving away at least 5 penalties. They're a disgrace to the black jersey, and it's time for Henry to fall on his sword.

If the Boks keep up their standard of play, the Aussies are in for a hiding at Newlands. They cannot match the physicality of Bakkies and friends, and are too heavily reliant on front football for their awesome backline to be a danger.

Tri-Nations Predictions: Week Three

Kynan's Prediction

The All Blacks will be desperate for a win after last week's poor performance. They did outscore the Boks in the second half though, and will be looking to take that momentum and finally get off to a good start. The Boks, on the other hand, are supremely confident -- but not arrogant. They are a team that knows how to win. They closed down the Lions in the first test, just as they were looking to stage an incredible comeback. They kicked a last second winner in the second test and they shut down the All Black resurgence last week. They have the power, the skill and the temperament to beat anyone. In a wet and rainy Durban, it's hard to imagine the Kiwis gaining an upper hand in the physical battle. Bismarck and Bakkies have been monumental at ruck and maul time. The Beast and Juan Smith do twice the work of their New Zealand counterparts. And then there's Brussow... not even the mighty McCaw can match him right now.

Unfortunately, show ponies like Spies are going to be invisible if it rains, as predicted. That's good news for the Boks, because New Zealand has a slew of them - Sivivatu, Rokocoko, Nonu... uh, Woodcock? Anyway, the point is, they were hoping for a fast-paced game and lots of ball to the wingers. Not going to happen in a wet and windy Durban. The air swirls like a Maelstrom at the best of times in good ol' Kings Park. Look for lots of shoddy kicking from Donald and Muliaina, and some spectacular and moral-sapping returns from Du Preez and the Steyns.

Big TR points are coming from the likes of Bismarck and Hore, Kaino and Smith -- ball-carriers in the hard, close stuff. The wingers will all get nothing. The two Steyn's will rack up a ton each. Matfield will be the best of the locks. McCaw and Brussow will also be winners.

Springboks by 2. Bismarck Du Plessis top TR points scorer.

Andrew's Prediction

The Boks should win this. They're coming off a moral-boosting opening win; the All Blacks are looking tired and going into a game which, if they lose, will leave their defence of the title seriously undermined. The predicted wet conditions will be more familiar to the Kiwis but will surely suit the Bok's ultra-conservative playing style more. Golden boy Morne Steyn is starting in place of the flustered and profligate Ruan Pienaar. Like last week there should be parity in the scrums but, like last week, the Boks will surely reign supreme at the line-outs...

The Boks should win this... but they won't. You could be mistaken for thinking they've already wrapped up their first three home games - South African arrogance is rivalled only by the English, and like the latter it can be their undoing. In all the hullabaloo surrounding Steyn's starting place, many have lost sight of the fact that Pienaar is the better player. Not 'Tiger Woods better,' but certainly more threatening, insightful, and, most importantly, a proven performer at test level. Steyn's off-the-bench cameo in the first Lions test was tempered by his distinctly unimpressive showing in the third. His place kicking is undoubtedly a great asset, but lest we forget the All Blacks outscored the Boks during Steyn's tenure last week - including the Conrad Smith try for which the flyhalf and his girlish tackling was partly culpable. With Steyn at the helm, the South African back line will be even less threatening than last week, with Habana and Pietersen unable to buy a pass for love nor money.

It will be another close and brutal encounter. In the wet conditions, expect a lot of errors from both sides. Tactical kicking will be the name of the game, resulting in a lot of line-outs which the Boks will dominate, but the All Blacks will start stronger than they did last week. McCaw is slowly recapturing his form and the pressure is on for underperformers (ie. lazy, sloppy, overpaid primadonnas) like Nonu and Rokocoko to step up, and they will. It'll be neck and neck in the final 20 minutes but this time the Boks will lose their heads as Steyn wastes good attacking possession by punting (failed) drop goal attempts at every opportunity. The price of having a puppet of a coach who spends halftime standing by himself, talking to no-one will be paid. The All Blacks will return to New Zealand firmly, but undeservedly, in the Tri-Nations driving seat. And the unjustly-maligned and mono-browed Pienaar will start at flyhalf next week.

New Zealand by 7. Bismarck du Plessis top Test Rugby points scorer.

P.S. Did Kynan and his boyfriend Pierre Spies have a break up? Last week he was the strongest, fastest and sexiest human being ever, but this week he's being described as an "invisible" and a "show pony."

Weather to put a dampener on things

The forecast is rain for the 2nd test in Durban. At first, this might seem like a God-send for the beleaguered Kiwis: at sea-level in the rain, just like home. But I am going to disagree.

The Boks, while inexperienced in wet weather conditions, are far better equipped for the kick and grind of a soggy test match. In Morne Steyn, Fourie Du Preez and Franscois Steyn they possess a long and lethal kicking game that far outguns Donald and Muliaina. In their forward pack, as highlighted by their epic mauls last week and against the Lions, they have the bulk and strength to crush the All Blacks.

In Bloem, South Africa looked best while keeping it close, while New Zealand only became an attacking force when they sent it out wide, recycled it quickly and kept hitting it up through the backs. With a wet ball and slippery grass underfoot, and a penchant for handling errors, this strategy will become even less viable for them, and they will be forced to take on the Boks in the forwards -- a recipe for disaster.

It's going to be an ugly, bloody and brutal street-fight, something the Boks relish. Lots of mauling, lots of penalties - perfect conditions for Morne to slowly sink the Kiwis to their first back-to-back defeat against SA since apartheid days.

Week Three: Kynan's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Kevin Mealamu (NZL) - $1,075,000
FR Bismarck Du Plessis (SAF) - $1,175,000

LK Isaac Ross (NZL) - $742,500
LK Victor Matfield (SAF) - $1,215,000

LF Pierre Spies (SAF) - $1,217,500
LF Kieren Read (NZL) - $900,000

HV Morne Steyn (SAF) - $1,065,000
HV Stephen Donald (NZL) - $1,025,000

CT Ma’a Nonu (NZL) - $1,200,000
CT Jean De Villiers (SAF) - $1,220,000

OB Franscois Steyn (SAF) - $1,195,000
OB Sitiveni Sivivatu (NZL) - $1,177,500

Team Value: $13,355,000
Cash in Bank: $147,500

With just enough transfers left to get rid of my Kiwis next week, I had to play it ultra-conservative. Fortunately, I had enough money to transfer in Morne Steyn (thanks Ruan Pienaar for holding your value).

I think Morne Steyn is a must have this week. He's a points machine, both on the field and in TR. (Look to the 2009 Super 14 for proof - he averaged 270 a game, 2nd behind Matt Giteau amongst HV's.) As for the rest, I just hope all my ol' timers from last week perform just as well (or better in the case of Mealamu and Read). I'm hoping for an early injury to one of the NZ loosies and an abominable performance from Hore, which should see an early Mealamu entrance.

As soon as the round locks, I'll be buying Giteau, Mitchell and Barnes.

Week Three: Andrew's Team

*New buys in italics

FR Andrew Hore (NZL) - $1,132,500
FR Bismarck du Plessis (SAF) - $1,175,000

LK Isaac Ross (NZL) - $742,500
LK Brad Thorn (NZL) - $1,125,000

LF Heinrich Brussouw (SAF) - $1,140,000
LF Juan Smith (SAF) - $1,127,500

HV Jimmy Cowan (NZL) - $882,500
HV Stephen Donald (NZL) - $1,025,000

CT Ma’a Nonu (NZL) - $1,200,000
CT Jaque Fourie (SAF) - $1,245,000

OB Bryan Habana (SAF) - $1,180,000
OB Sitiveni Sivivatu (NZL) - $1,177,500

Team Value: $13,152,500
Cash in Bank: $103,500

I made just the one change this week, swapping Brendon Leonard for Jimmy Cowan. Luckily I sold Leonard straight after the game and before his price slipped, but I still didn't have enough to buy Morne Steyn, who will surely earn double whatever Cowan gets. I only have enough transfers left to sell all my All Blacks once this round is locked so that curtailed any further shuffling of the team.

I was glad to see that Hore retained his starting berth. I wouldn't have had the transfers to buy Mealamu in his place. I'm hoping that Habana and Fourie (who apart from his try was pretty anonymous) might get into the game a bit more this week.

Remember to sell your New Zealand players as soon as this round locks. You might consider buying a few Wallabies too before their price rises - barring injury, Giteau, Smith, Mortlock, Sharpe, Mitchell, Moore and a few others should be certain starters. Good luck!

Team Announcements: No Surprises

Peter De Villiers has kept his remarkable run with sanity going for two weeks in a row. He has only made one change to the run-on team, bringing in Steyn for Pienaar (supposedly injury enforced). On that note, Steyn is still cheap, but rising in price by the minute. But him NOW! He is a TR points machine. On the bench, Bekker comes in for Kankowski and Jacobs for Steyn.

Graham Henry has felt the need to make two changes to his losing team. Leonard makes way for Cowan (and finds himself out of the match 22 altogether - and fair enough after racking up -15 TR points). Franks starts for the injured Tialata, bringing Afoa on to the bench. Unfortunately for me, who has Read and Mealamu in my team, Henry has resisted the urge to drop the underperforming So'oialo and Hore. All you Cory Jane owners will note he is still unfortunately on the bench... no relief there for those struggling with finances.

Two great teams, consistency in selection - looks like it's going to be an epic test match.

Springboks – 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (c), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.

Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Andries Bekker, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Adi Jacobs, 22 Wynand Olivier.

All Blacks — 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So’oialo, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.

Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Afoa, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Luke McAlister, 22 Cory Jane.

Week Two Retrospective - Andrew

Not a week to remember for me... my Leonard/Habana combo killed me, racking up a measly 65 points between them. Looking on the bright side, here's what this round taught us...

Mealamu's now earned 380 points playing only 60 minutes of rugby. If he starts next week - and after another lacklustre, error-strewn performance by Hore - surely he will, then he could easily be the top scorer. Remember that the All Blacks have a bye in week four and no new transfers are issued until after that round locks, so if transfers are getting tight he might be a luxury you can't afford.

Who'd want to be a South African winger? Habana (80 points) and Pietersen (60 points) seem more likely to get the ball from intercepting a pass than from their teammates. A win is a win after all but would any other side in the world leave their speedsters out in the cold like this? If the Boks stick to this dreary gameplan in future rounds then you might be advised to go for OBs from the other side - or pick Steyn, who at least gets the ball kicked to him by the opposition at regular intervals.

Brendon Leonard seems like a doubt to start next week, so if money's tight you might think about selling him now - his price is already dropping.

Keep an eye on the injury situation during the week. DeVilliers and Tialata look unlikely to start - the former's price is dropping fast. Knocks to McCaw and Pienaar are allegedly less serious but need to be monitored.

Kynan's boyfriend, Pierre Spies seems to have recovered his rampaging S14 form rather than the anonymous stint he put in against the Lions. Watch his price rocket this week, he'll be the most expensive player by the time the next round locks.

When shuffling your team for next week's game remember that you'll still need enough transfers in hand to replace all your All Blacks the week after.

Week Two Retrospective - Kynan

Predictions

Kynan - Boks by 12. Spies top TR scorer.
Andrew - Boks by less than 7. Sivivatu top TR Scorer.

Ahhh... sweet revenge. Andrew has been smashed, I'm 23 in the world, the Boks won by 9 (not 12... sorry) and Pierre Spies was top points scorer, by a long way.

Team Points

Kynan - 3,055 points
Andrew - 2,360 points (ouch!)

(Self-Centred, Gloating) Test Rugby Thoughts

My Mealamu pick turned out to be a total bust - no points! What's the deal? This was a big mistake which I paid for in world ranking - pretty sure I could have been near the top 10 if I had kept Hore. (Though he was no Brendan Leonard - negative 15!) Kieren Read got a mediocre 90, but he was worth it, as I was able to afford Franscois Steyn, Matfield and De Villiers, who all scored big.

Despite 5 missed kicks, Pienaar's line breaks and try kept him ahead of the other SA halves. De Villiers handily beat out Fourie, but trailed Conrad Smith, who turned out to be the second best little points earner (who would have guessed...) Predictably, Matfield and Ross topped the locks catagory, proving once again that N0. 5 locks are the only ones worth owning. Test Rugby doesn't award points for brutal cleanouts (Sorry Bakkies and Thorn).

I await news on injuries to De Villiers and Pienaar before transferring them out. Remember, transfer as early as possible to preserve profits gained on injured players. Their price will drop like a stone as soon as the news breaks.

And in honor of my totally non-homosexual crush on Spies:

How do you solve a problem like Ruan Pienaar?

Pienaar, after a shocking kicking display - 1 from 5 (and most were sitters) - fell on his sword at half time, pretending his ankle was sore, and handed the reins to Morne Steyn. The crowd cheered, Steyn kicked 3 from 4 (including some tricky long range efforts) and the match was won.

Steyn fans will feel vindicated in their demand that he be the first choice, and even Ruan (or should we say "Tiger") will be feeling it these days. But I am going to back De Villiers on this. Despite his horrendous goal-kicking, Pienaar needs to be the Bok flyhalf.

The Springbok backline looked decisive, dangerous and well-organized while Pienaar was on the field. De Villiers and Pienaar made some good in-roads through the All Black defense, including a great try by the two. Defensively they were strong - the All Blacks never once looked like scoring. Cue Pienaar's exit, and everything changed. Suddenly the Boks were devoid of ideas, mindlessly bashing it up - they never once got going again. Defensively they became frail, highlighted by Conrad Smith's try (when he brushed aside Steyn, running straight through his channel to score). Yes, the boy can kick, but there is little else Steyn gets right. With him at the helm, the Boks look like the clueless oafs the rest of the world accuses them of being.

The solution? Well, nothing really comes to mind, except entrusting Franscois Steyn with all the kicking duties, and that really doesn't sound much better. Franscois and Ruan are both confidence players - when they're on song they are geniuses, when they miss a few goals, it all falls apart. Mentally, they have the strength of chimp. All that said, the Boks led 17-3 with Pienaar on the field. Other than his goal kicking, his play was exceptional, and the Boks were cruising to victory despite his misses. Had they kept him on, they probably would have scored a couple more tries and won the game anyway.

I remain a Pienaar fan. (Even if his four misses - make that five with his drop goal attempt - take his TR total to about -25 by my count). Keep playing him, and the Boks will score enough tries to make his misses irrelavent.

Predictions: Tri-Nations Week Two

Kynan's Prediction

History is against the Bokke - the All Blacks have never lost in Bloemfontein. Now, admittedly, they've only played there twice and the last time was in the 1960's, but still, one should never discount history.

That being said, the Boks will win. They will be a little rusty (it's been weeks since any of them played), but the All Blacks will be tired, intimidated, and psychologically defeated. They've already been talking up the long flight and the effects of altitude. Ritchie McCaw will also be having nightmares of the Crusaders/Cheetahs game earlier this year, when Brussow and Juan Smith played him off the park (literally - he left with concussion).

And then there's Pierre Spies. He was quiet during the Lions Tour, but look for him to come roaring back. The game will be a little more open, the fields a little harder, the crowd a little more partisan, and the true beast within the Springbok team will explode into action. Two tries by Spies is my prediction, one of them directly over the top of King Ritchie.

Also look for a big game from Franscois Steyn. He needs to run it more, and the actions of Spies will go to his head and free him from all inhibition. He'll roar and rampage and it will be a beautiful thing to behold.

Scrum parity will be achieved, line-outs will be ruled by Matfield, Brussow will get the Boks quick ball at the breakdown, and their big Dutchmen will run riot. It's going to bring little tears of joy to my eyes.

Boks by 12. Spies top TR points scorer.

Andrew's Prediction

The Springboks are being coached by a man of straw and the question isn't if but when the situation will worsen to the point where de Villiers is replaced. For the Boks and their supporters I hope this happens sooner than later, and a new coaching set-up can have as much time as possible with the team before the 2011 World Cup. Does anyone really doubt that its the players and not the coach that run this show? The quality of John Smit's leadership on the field and the undoubted strengths and skills of the individual players have pulled them through thus far but it can't go on indefinitely. The cracks are beginning to show and are only going to get wider.

The match will be tight. The All Blacks will be buoyed by last week's victory and be all the stronger because of it. The Springboks are coming off a Lions Tour victory in which that the fact that they won seems to have been forgotten among all the flak surrounding their coach's verbal diarrhoea and tactical niavete. Both claim that they are the underdogs. Both flyhalfs are seen as the weak link by the opposition and will be targeted. There'll be parity in the scrums and at the breakdown. Expect a lot of kicking to touch by the Boks, exploiting their undoubted superiority in the lineout. I forsee a brutal but low-scoring first half, with the Boks starting better and keeping the All Blacks pinned in their half of the field. Things will open up in the second half and the All Blacks will restart the stronger team. This is where the coachless Boks will need to keep their heads. If they can weather the storm, then they'll win. But if Spies goes MIA when things get rough as he's wont to do, if Pienaar gets flustered and forced into errors, if Frans Steyn commits one of trademark acts of madness, if de Villiers makes a substitutional blunder... then the All Blacks will win this.

South Africa by less than 7. Sitiveni Sivivatu top Test Rugby points scorer.

Week Two: Andrew's Team

*New buys in italics

FR Andrew Hore (NZL) - $1,140,000
FR Bismarck du Plessis (SAF) - $1,165,000

LK Isaac Ross (NZL) - $740,000
LK Brad Thorn (NZL) - $1,130,000

LF Heinrich Brussouw (SAF) - $1,117,500
LF Juan Smith (SAF) - $1,107,500

HV Brendon Leonard (NZL) - $952,500
HV Stephen Donald (NZL) - $1,012,500

CT Ma’a Nonu (NZL) - $1,180,500
CT Jaque Fourie (SAF) - $1,222,500

OB Bryan Habana (SAF) - $1,177,500
OB Sitiveni Sivivatu (NZL) - $1,180,500

Team Value: $13,147,500
Cash in Bank: $3,500

Early buys on some Boks really paid off and I’ve been able to afford a better team as a result. Unfortunately, Cory Jane’s benching removed one of the cheapest starting players and I had to reshuffle things a little to compensate. I decided to bite the bullet go for two hookers in the FR. Du Plessis is a proven TR points earner and will be there next week too. With Ross already in the team, I plumped for Thorn. He was the cheapest starting lock available and although I think Matfield and Botha will be all over them like a bad rash, the former was too pricey and the latter is a notorious TR underachiever. I purchased Brussouw ahead of time when he was underpriced and he’s sure to be a good point scorer. McCaw and Spies were too expensive, so I eventually decided on Juan Smith to join him. Smith’s a pretty solid earner even though he’s seemed a bit off his old form lately. To mitigate Cory Jane’s departure, I picked feisty Brendon Leonard as my other HV alongside Donald. On the right day Leonard is a TR point monster. Jaque Fourie was the cheapest of the starting CTs when I bought him, now he’s only a whisker under the most expensive, so that was good business and I’d have picked him over De Villiers anyway. Initially I bought Rokocoko as my other OB. His price rose over $100,000 overnight so I sold him when I had just barely enough to buy Habana. I might regret it come Saturday but on paper’s there’s not much between them - both these players seem to be fighting the dying of the light but still have occasional flashes of the old magic.

Remember that these two teams play again next week, so only sell injured players after the round locks. Good luck.

Week Two: Kynan's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Kevin Mealamu (NZL) - $1,080,000
FR Bismarck Du Plessis (SAF) - $1,165,000

LK Isaac Ross (NZL) - $740,000
LK Victor Matfield (SAF) - $1,202,500

LF Pierre Spies (SAF) - $1,185,000
LF Kieren Read (NZL) - $882,500

HV Ruan Pienaar (SAF) - $1,127,500
HV Stephen Donald (NZL) - $1,012,500

CT Ma’a Nonu (NZL) - $1,202,500
CT Jean De Villiers (SAF) - $1,225,000

OB Franscois Steyn (SAF) - $1,162,500
OB Sitiveni Sivivatu (NZL) - $1,180,000

Team Value: $13,165,000
Cash in Bank: $32,500

Cory Jane's benching threw my entire team selection into disarray, causing me to select 2 benched players, instead of just keeping the benched Cory Jane... but there is some method to my madness.

First off, I dropped Hore for Mealamu, even though Hore is the starting player. Why? Because Mealamu scored more points last week, despite playing off the bench, and he is South Africa's nemisis. He almost ALWAYS seems to be burrowing in for tries, and with the reversion to the old laws, I'm expecting some second half mauls in SA's 22 - cue Kevin Mealamu.

Second, I dropped McCaw for Read. This was madness. I never should have done it. I should have kept McCaw and Jane, and sacrificed Franscois Steyn. I would go back and correct my mistake, but I'm worried about transfers... I only have 7 left for 2 rounds. So now, I have to hope for an injury or shocking performance from one of the NZ loosies causing Read to make an early entrance, or a shear blinder from Steyn in which he scores 500+ TR points to make up for the missing McCaw... I'm an idiot, but it could pay off. GO FRANSCOIS! I'm your biggest fan!

Everyone else pretty much picks themselves. I vascillated between Pienaar and Du Preez, and Fourie instead of De Villiers... they all good picks. Hopefully I made the right ones.

One Reason the Kiwis are Crying Softly in their Sleep

The man is a total freak of nature. If the game opens up a little, as the All Blacks are claiming, they are in for a world of hurt. I think back to England vs SA in Bloem in 2007 and Spies's two tries that day...

He is my wild card pick for the week, and below are several reasons why.

New Zealand make two changes for Boks

The All Blacks have made two changes to the team that beat Australia last week. Unsurprisingly, the have brought in Brendon Leonard, who snipes around the fringes will keep the South African defence close in, freeing up the speedsters on the outside. Speaking of speedsters, Rokocoko returns to the side, ousting Cory Jane - which throws my fantasy team selection into disarray. No-one else is affordable! All Springbok fans will also be disappointed by this move - Rokocoko needs just one more try to equal Christian Cullin's record of 10 tries versus the Boks... hopefully it won't be Saturday.

It's an ominous looking team, with only Isaac Ross appearing out of his depth. He'll be in for a fright come the first few collisions. Graham Henry has an old stalwart in Eaton on the bench though, so his risk is mitigated.

Should be a HUGE game... depending which Bok team shows up -- the battle hardened World Cup winners, or the PdV Express... always impossible to tell.

All Blacks — 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Brendon Leonard, 8 Rodney So’oialo, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Luke McAlister, 22 Cory Jane

State of the Nation - South Africa

Andrew's tips based on the Springboks starting XV:

Essential Buy: Bismarck du Plessis. Second only to Mealamu as the highest scoring FR in this year's S14 and he racked up the Test Rugby points in last year's Tri-Nations. Barring injury he'll be a cert to start next week too so buy him before his price rises.

Bargain Buy: Heinrich Brussouw. At $1,045,000, he's the cheapest of the South African LFs and, thanks to his superb scavanging skills and Burger's ongoing ban, has a good chance of being the highest scoring among them.

Overpriced: Bakkies Botha. The big lock's brutality and aggression are legendary but it rarely transfers into TR points - he often fails to get into triple figures. At $1,117,500 you'd be much better spending your money elsewhere.

Wild Card: JP Pietersen. Likely to be overlooked for Habana or Steyn, the flyer has a history of occasionally scoring a lot of points and might be worth taking a gamble on.

Springbok Team Released - Distinct Lack of Madness

In another bizarre move by coach Peter De Villiers, he has announced a team with only a few obvious blunders (Ricky Januarie, I'm looking at you). The midfield, sketchy at best during the Lions series, looks decidedly solid with a return to Jake White's favorite combo. Pienaar's defensive fragility (and the absence of Burger's midfield cover tackling) will be more than compensated for by the hulking presence of JdV and Fourie.

I'm also pleased that I won't have trade any of my early SA picks from my fantasy team -- PdV and I see eye to eye (for once).

The All Blacks will be disappointed that sanity has prevailed, and their hopes of a victory must be all but snuffed out by now.

Springboks – 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Ruan Pienaar, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (c), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Morne Steyn, 22 Wynand Olivier.

New Zealand Squad Announced

Well, I was wrong... but not by much. My Dean Mumm pick turned out to be a bust, but at least Berrick Barnes came through for me, so it was all worth it in the end. Only twenty points behind, and I blame the ref for Australia's loss. Al Baxter was consistently, and unfairly, penalized at scrum-time, when it was clear he was the one binding and New Zealand were the collapsers! Several penalties here turned the game around. But no sour grapes...

I have already picked several South Africans, and their prize is rising (I'm up $600,000 in profit thanks to early selling and buying). I bought Bismark, Spies, Matfield, De Villiers and Steyn to fill out my team already. They're sure starters (with the exception of Pienaar), but it could be I've wasted some transfers -- but the extra cash will be worth it is later rounds.

In other news, New Zealand announced their touring squad for their two South African games. No surprises, except the ommission of Franks and Gear for budgetary reasons. Apparently even sports teams are suffering through the global recession.

New Zealand – Mils Muliaina, Joe Rokocoko, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Cory Jane, Conrad Smith, Ma’a Nonu, Luke McAlister, Tamati Ellison, Stephen Donald, Jimmy Cowan, Brendon Leonard, Piri Weepu, Rodney So’oialo, Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw (c), Tanerau Latimer, Jason Eaton, Bryn Evans, Isaac Ross, Brad Thorn, Neemia Tialata, Tony Woodcock, Owen Franks, John Afoa, Keven Mealamu, Andrew Hore, Aled de Malmanche

Edit -- Apologies to anyone who bought Jean De Villiers (like me). He is expected to be warming the bench, unless Adi Jacobs fails a fitness test. Jacque Fourie looks like the better bet at the moment for SA centers, though he is nursing a quad injury... so, take your pick -- maybe you just want to stick with Kiwis for now.