Mental Midgets blow it again

In what has become, I'm sure, an infuriating trend for coach Robbie Deans, the Australians have managed to blow a comfortable second half lead and lose a third game on the trot. The calls for his head will begin in earnest now as his glossy sheen of infallibility tarnishes and cracks.

But is it Robbie Deans' fault? Australia are playing very well otherwise - they look organized, their players are skillful, tactically they're sound. But when the pressure's on - brain explosions all around. They had this game in the bag until Mitchell and Hynes decided to dink around near their own goal-line, passing it back and forth until the Kiwis swamped them, eventually conceding the penalty which sealed their demise. All they had to do was kick it out!

And then, once the All Blacks had gifted them possession after the final hooter, they had two opportunities to set up a drop goal right in front of the posts - surely a gimme for Matt Giteau - yet they kept spreading it wide until they knocked it on - game over.

These Australians lack what Aussies pride themselves on - mental toughness. I think of the Aussie cricket teams of the past - they would come back from anything, totally unflappable. Same with the great rugby teams of John Eales day. The current crop - fragile, fragile, fragile. Maybe they are lacking a hard-nosed leader. In pretty boys like Giteau and Barnes, they have immense talent, but these guys just aren't cut out to be team leaders. Had they been on Steve Waugh's undefeatable cricket team, he would have crushed them into bloody pulp for not killing off the Kiwis. They need a hard man to stand up and announce himself and destroy the care free attitudes that seem to exist - this notion that it's okay to lose as long as you play attractively. It's rubbish and should be treated as such.

Deans is succeeding as a tactician and coach, but not as a man manager. He has failed to instill the sense of believe and invincibility into his Aussies that his Crusaders always exhibited. I don't think the Crusaders ever lost a game when they took a lead into the second half - it was unacceptable to the players, the fans, and Robbie Deans. It needs to become unacceptable the the Aussies.

They've handed the Bledisloe to New Zealand for the 5th straight year, destroyed any remaining TriNations hopes they had, and now face two home games against the Springboks which they'll battle to win. It looks a bleak time indeed for Dingo Deans and his charges.

Tri-Nations Predictions: Week Five

Andrew's Prediction

There's a lot at stake in this one. Malcontents on both sides of the Tasman Sea are heaping a lot of pressure on their "underperforming" coaches (pretty unfair in the case of Robbie Deans but long overdue for Graham Henry) and this second Bledisloe Cup match is shaping up to be a belter.

Both nations have returning heroes - Rocky Elsom is home again after his successful Irish sojourn, while miracle man Dan Carter is back in black. Despite all the hyperbole, the latter will unquestionably make a huge difference, if only to the confidence of his teammates. Even with a ten month absence I have a feeling that Carter's going to hit the ground running, shaking off the rust and quickly dominating proceedings with his usual verve. With McAllister alongside him, expect a lot of tactical kicking as the All Blacks try to put the Aussie line-outs and, especially, scrums under pressure.

With the addition of O'Connor to a team already brimming with youthful vigour, Australia will play high risk running rugby with attackers bursting from all over the park. It'll be exciting to watch no doubt, but ultimately may prove costly. Unfortunately, it's calculating brains and cool heads not passionate flair that wins tests (why else are the Boks sitting atop the table?) and you get the feeling that the Wallabies are the one's more likely to crack. It'll be close for a while, but I expect the All Blacks to win reasonably comfortably in the end.

New Zealand by 12. Sitiveni Sivivatu top Test Rugby points scorer.

Kynan's Prediction

Everyone is talking this up as last chance hill for both teams, which is entirely inaccurate. NZ is playing away - they can still afford to lose. For Australia, to lose a home game means it's all over. Tri-Nations winners do not lose at home. If NZ win, they will actually be in the driving seat, with a rare away win and two home games still to go. South Africa has not won a Tri-Nations game in Australia for years, and we all know how tough it is to win in NZ.

All that said, Australia should not lose this game. They will be playing before 80,000 partisan supporters in Sydney - even contemplating loss is a terrible indictment of the state of their game. The All Blacks should be clear underdogs, especially after their horrendous performances of late, yet for some reason the Aussies are talking it up as an insurmountable hill that they will have to perform miracles to conquer. You're at home! Win! Stupid Aussies.

NZ have the mental edge over their trans-Tasman rivals, but it will be interesting to see if they can convert that into a solid performance. They have been shoddy in every match played this year - balls dropped left and right, poor decisions taken, discipline terrible. Australia, on the other hand, looked a poised side when playing at home. They destroyed the French side that beat the Kiwis. We expect them to be crap when playing away - that's the Aussie way.

So I'm making the only call that makes sense - Aussies to win. Anything else is unacceptable, and Rocky Elsom won't stand for it.

Australia by 4. James O'Connor top TR points scorer.

Week Five: Kynan's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Stephen Moore (AUS) - $1,172,500
FR Andrew Hore (NZL) - $1,155,000

LK Nathan Sharpe (AUS) - $1,212,500
LK Isaac Ross (NZL) - $720,000

LF George Smith (AUS) - $1,207,500
LF Richie McCaw (NZL) - $1,242,500

HV Dan Carter (NZL) - $1,272,500
HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,295,000

CT Berrick Barnes (AUS) - $1,250,000
CT James O'Conner (AUS) - $860,000

OB Adam Ashley-Cooper (AUS) - $1,172,500
OB Drew Mitchell (AUS) - $1,250,000

Team Value: $13,810,000
Cash in Bank: $920,000

So money has become no object, for some reason. James O'Connor and Isaac Ross help, but I put it down to some judicious trading in earlier rounds, buying low, selling high and all the rest of it.

I am extremely Aussie heavy, which is by stratagem more so than foresight into the game's result. Australia play three weeks in a row, so when faced with the choice between an Aussie or Kiwi of similar worth, I went Aussie (conserves trades, which are looking slim again).

Otherwise, I'm really happy with my team. I'm looking to improve on my 8th in the world rank, and have a pretty good shot at it with this selection. My only wish is Rocky Elsom - I have the money, but not the trades (though George Smith is no slouch and may outscore Rocky, but I have a good feeling about the returning monster.)

Week Five: Andrew's Team

* New buys in italics

FR Stephen Moore (AUS) - $1,167,500
FR Andrew Hore (NZL) - $1,150,000

LK Nathan Sharpe (AUS) - $1,205,000
LK Isaac Ross (NZL) - $715,000

LF Richard McCaw (NZL) - $1,240,000
LF George Smith (AUS) - $1,207,500

HV Daniel Carter (NZL) - $1,257,000
HV Matt Giteau (AUS) - $1,295,000

CT Berrick Barnes (AUS) - $1,245,000
CT James O'Connor (AUS) - $845,000

OB Sitiveni Sivivatu (NZL) - $1,222,500
OB Drew Mitchell (AUS) - $1,250,000

Team Value: $13,800,000
Cash in Bank: $751,000

For the first time in the competition, I'm looking at my teamsheet thinking that this could be the highest scoring possible combination of players. Money's less of an issue this far into the tournament, so I was able to get all the players I wanted, regardless of price - and with both team's fielding strong line-ups most of the names chose themselves: McCaw, George Smith, Sivivatu, Ross, Hore. and, of course, Carter. I have a nagging feeling that Elsom will outscore Smith, but probably there won't be too much between them. Looking ahead, transfers are going to be tight for the next couple of weeks, so I chose Wallabies where I could - swapping the injured Mortlock (who has been an albatross round my neck this year - good riddance, Stirling) for alliterative action man Berrick Barnes and plumped for the precocious O'Connor instead of reliable old Conrad Smith.

Remember the All Blacks have a bye next week, so make sure to sell them when the round locks. Good luck!

Aussie and Kiwi Teams Announced: Rocky Returns!

Graham Henry has bowed to pressure and cleaned out his under-performing All Blacks - the only real surprise being the continued inclusion of the dire Rokocoko. He had a good game for Auckland over the weekend, but really, who can justify his test selection ahead of Cory Jane or Hosea Gear. He was diabolical in both tests versus the Boks... an NPC game is nowhere near the intensity of test rugby - expect more blunders from Big Joe come Saturday.

McAlister comes in for Nonu, who was remarkably invisible for such a big man the last few weeks, and Read gets a deserved run ahead of So'oialo, who looks like he needs to be put out to pasture (perhaps Toulon could use his fading efforts).

And, lest I forget, DAN CARTER, the world's sexiest flyhalf, has been rushed back from injury to lift the flagging New Zealand spirits. The man's a genius - expect nothing less than a masterful performance and huge Test Rugby points.

Australia are looking awesomely packed with attacking prowess. O'Connor was very nearly unstoppable against the Boks and is sure to have a field day against New Zealands sometimes suspect defense. Ashley-Cooper comes in for the injured Mortlock, which may be a blessing in disguise - the old warhorse maybe needs to join So'oialo in that pasture. And the big news - ROCKY ELSOM, the world's most destructive flanker. He is a monster of a man, and will add the grunt and thuggery missing from the Aussie breakdown. Sure, he hasn't played a game in months, but why should that slow him down? He was in stupendous form prior to his injury, and his rampaging runs are sure to grace our television screens.

ALL BLACKS: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Luke McAlister, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock. Reserves: 16 Aled de Malmanche, 17 John Afoa, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Rodney So'oialo, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Ma'a Nonu.

WALLABIES: 15 James O'Connor, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Richard Brown, 7 George Smith, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson. Reserves: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Ben Alexander, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 David Pocock, 20 Will Genia, 21 Ryan Cross, 22 Peter Hynes.

All Blacks Squad Announced

The All Blacks squad for next weekend's Tri-Nations test against Australia has been announced:

John Afoa, Daniel Carter, Jimmy Cowan, Wyatt Crockett, Aled de Malmanche, Stephen Donald, Jason Eaton, Tamati Ellison, Owen Franks, Andrew Hore, Cory Jane, Jerome Kaino, Tanerau Latimer, Brendon Leonard, Luke McAlister, Richie McCaw, Mils Muliaina, Ma'a Nonu, Kieran Read, Josevata Rokocoko, Isaac Ross, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Conrad Smith, Rodney So'oialo, Brad Thorn and Tony Woodcock.

As expected, Dan Carter has made the squad. Also of note for TR players is the omission of Neemia Tialata and Piri Weepu.