Semi-Finals: Predictions

Andrew: 75/92 (82%)
Kynan: 65/92 (71%)

Andrew's Predictions

Bulls vs Crusaders - Crusaders by 5
Stormers vs Waratahs - Stormers by 7

Kynan's Predictions

Bulls vs Crusaders - Bulls by 2

Stormers vs Waratahs - Stormers by 7+

Experience in Bok Back Ups

With the Super 14 semi-finals almost upon us, I am going to ignore them... for now. I have a different soap-box to shout from.

New Zealand are always crying about the number of players they have overseas... which, incidently, is about the same as South Africa. Yet the Boks have a significant advantage in experienced players in both the starting and back-up slots, positioning them well for a World Cup triumph over the All Blacks. As this season is proving, the Kiwis are just one or two injuries away from disaster - partly because they refuse to even consider their foreign legion. But as my SA squad will prove, very few foreign players are even required for the Boks to look formidable.

The Kiwis... not so intimidating. Nonu's injury, for instance, has left them with ZERO capped candidates worth considering - McAlister has been awful and 2nd string at the Blues, Toeava is injured, Bowden is leaving and ineligible - leaving the uncapped and limited Benson Stanley as front-runner.

Same thing at flyhalf and loose-forward. Carter has been off the boil, but there is no viable back-up. Donald is injured (and can't kick), Brett is erratic, Cruden is a child... and they won't pick Nick Evans. McCaw, Read, Thompson and Kaino are awesome - beyond them, So'oialo is past it, Lauaki is nightmare, Latimer is inexperienced, Braid is technically not eligible... they can only afford 1 injury here and it better not be to McCaw.

If the World Cup was starting tomorrow, everything would point to a Bok victory come semi-final time. SA has depth beyond the requirements of a World Cup squad in all but one position - and it's not tighthead prop!

Bok International Candidates
Props - there has been some fear about South Africa's front row, but really the cupboard is pretty well-stocked at both one and three.
1. Mtawarira, Steenkamp, W. Du Preez
3. BJ Botha, van der Linde, J Du Plessis

Hookers - even with a long-term injury to Bismarck, SA boasts a plethora of talented and experienced international hookers.
2. Smit, A Strauss, Liebenberg, G Botha

Locks - again, the 4 best locks in the world probably all live in South Africa and plenty of others that would walk into most international teams.
4. B Botha, D Russouw, Fondse
5. Matfield, Bekker, Sykes

Loosies - no country can even compare to the richness of loose-forward talent South Africa currently have at their disposal, even with Brussow injured. Our outcasts are consistently the best loosies in the French and English competitions - drawing gasps of shock that Sowerby and Watson can be left in outer darkness.
6. J Smith, Deysel, Alberts
7. Burger, Grobler, Potgieter
8. Spies, Kankowski, Vermuelen

Scrumhalf - again, 2 of the 3 best scrumhalves in world rugby live in South Africa. The Welsh were all shocked Januarie couldn't get a game in SA, but on merit he's not even in the top 5.
9. F Du Preez, Pienaar, Duvenhage

Flyhalf - this hasn't been a strong suite for SA since Honiball retired. But it's not looking too bleak this season with Steyn emerging last year as the ultimate match-winner and Grant leading the Stormers revolution.
10. M Steyn, James, Grant

Midfield - this is probably South Africa's weakest area. The front-liners are great... but then it tails off very quickly. With Jacobs out, who is really in line to replace Fourie at 13?
12. De Villiers, Olivier, Bosman
13. Fourie... uh, De Jongh?

Wings - an injury crisis has left the Boks short of experience here, but there is plenty of talent to cover the position. Pieterson, A Ndungane, Mapoe and Nokwe would all have been contenders.
11. Habana, van der Heerver
14. Chavanga, Aplon, O Ndungane

Fullback - there are some solid, if unspectacular choices here, Steyn excepted.
15. F Steyn, Kirshner, Terblanche

Semi-Finals: Kynan's Teams

NO POOFTAHS - Facebook S14

*New buys in italics

FR Tiaan Liebenburg (STM) - $1,407,500
FR Tatafu Polatu-Nau (WAR) - $1,292,500

LK Sam Whitelock (CRU) - $552,500
LK Andries Bekker (STM) - $1,607,500

LF Kieran Read (CRU) - $1,085,000
LF Pierre Spies (BUL) - $1,340,000

HV Kurtley Beale (WAR) - $1,095,000
HV Morne Steyn (BUL) - $1,412,500


CT Berrick Barnes (WAR) - $1,255,000
CT Juan De Jongh (STM) - $532,500

OB Drew Mitchell (WAR) - $1,335,000
OB Zack Guildford (CRU) - $872,500

Team Value: $13,787,500
Cash in Bank: $772,250

Only two Bulls in my team... I'm not sure what that says about my belief in the Bulls or the price of their players? My team is dominated by Waratahs, even though I believe they are going to lose. That being said, I have enough transfers to cover the failure of any of the teams. I'm hoping some of those ranked higher than me will have to make a bet... and hopefully lose.
A lot of the big scorers didn't make it through... I'm torn between Carter and Beale. Carter should get a solid 200-300pts - but maybe Beale will work his magic and get 800? There's bound to be plenty of kicking in the Stormers game, and I'm imagining Beale is going to have some space to move.
Same thing with Guildford... he was devastating against the Bulls a couple weeks ago, and the same gameplan should see him in acres of room. Everyone else is a pretty safe pick... Whitelock is in because he's cheap, De Jongh for the same reason - and because I think center will be a bust across the board this week. There will be few line breaks and even fewer tries from the mid-fielders. I'm looking to the loosies and the wings to score.

Semi-finals: Team Announcements

Bulls - 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Jaco van der Westhuyzen, 13 Jaco Pretorius, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Gary Botha, 1 Gurthrö Steenkamp.

Subs: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Bees Roux, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Derick Kuün, 20 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 21 Stephan Dippenaar, 22 Pedrie Wannenburg.

Crusaders – 15 Colin Slade, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robert Fruean, 12 Daniel Bowden, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Ti’i Paulo, 1 Ben Franks.

Subs: 16 Daniel Perrin, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Chris Jack, 19 Thomas Waldrom, 20 Kahn Fotuali’i, 21 Tim Bateman, 22 Jared Payne.

STORMERS vs WARATAHS, CAPE TOWN, SATURDAY 19:10

Stormers – 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger (c), 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Adriaan Fondse, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Wicus Blaauw.

Subs: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Eusebio Guinazu, 18 Anton van Zyl, 19 Pieter Louw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Willem de Waal, 22 Tim Whitehead.

Waratahs – 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Tom Carter, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Berrick Barnes, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 Phil Waugh (c), 6 Patrick McCutcheon, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Dan Palmer.

Subs: 16 Damien Fitzpatrick, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Chris Thomson, 19 Dave Dennis, 20 Josh Holmes, 21 Daniel Halangahu, 22 Rory Sidey