Goodbye Crusaders?

The Crusaders look set to bring home a big fat zero from their tour... I can't imagine that they'll be able to muster even a bonus point against the Bulls next week. That will mean they're still on 34 points with a final game against the Brumbies to play. The question is, where will their contenders be?

The Bulls... well, they'll be on top with at least 47 points. The Stormers? Tough call - they're up against the Sharks in Durban... not a venue they've found a lot of success at in recent years. But you have to back them to pull it off at this stage. I'm calling a close victory over their coastal cousins - Stormers will remain in 2nd place on 42 points. The Reds are away to a Hurricanes team that could pose New Zealand's most credible semi-final threat... I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds lose this -- they're a young team at crunch time... I think their finals weeks were against the Stormers and Bulls. They've peaked emotionally, and it might be all over for them after a wonderful season. The Hurricanes will be on 37 points. The Brumbies will beat the Highlanders with a bonus point, putting them on 37 too. The Waratahs will beat the Chiefs to sit on... 37 points.

So the Reds and Crusaders will be in 6th and 7th place with one round to go... and both with their destinies out of their hands. The Crusaders should beat the Brumbies, knocking off a competitor, and the Reds should beat the Highlanders. That'll put them optimistically on 39 points each. One of the Hurricanes and Waratahs will have to lose... or they could draw... leaving all 4 teams on 39 points. Unlikely. More realistically, one of them will prevail... which one is hard to call - they've both been infuriatingly mediocre - neither team deserves a semi-final spot, but one of the Hurricanes or Waratahs will end 3rd, leaving the Reds and Crusaders to battle it out on points differential. They currently sit 1 point apart on differential... I think the Crusaders may be hammered next week, leaving them a lot of ground to make up against a tough Brumbies team. It would be a shame to see the Reds eliminated... they are perhaps the only team brazen enough to travel to Loftus and make a game of it.

It's still a toss-up... except for the Bulls. They're home free. Another set of crazy result like we had this week, and who knows? Could be the Hurricanes hosting a home semi-final... who would have called that a few weeks ago?