Friday, August 28, 2009

Tri-Nations Predictions: Week Six

Andrew's Prediction

Despite the injury toll and Deans fulfilling his promise to cull his underperforming regulars, this won't be the walkover some are predicting. Like a wounded and cornered kangaroo the Aussies are a dangerous prospect. With Robinson replacing the aging Baxter, the Aussies will be seeking parity, perhaps even dominance, at scrumtime. The Wallaby defence has been outstanding and that's not going to change, especially against a side who have struggled to score tries. O'Connor, Cross, Hynes, Turner, Cooper & Giteau is an impressive and potentially lethal backline, if the Wallabies can keep their hands on the ball and find some space - expect Morne Steyn to get a lot of practise improving his girlie tackling. Giteau's had a mediocre tournament thus far, if the little general finally regains his form and the Australian's can keep a lid on their ill-discipline then they can win this.

Unfortunately, the Springboks are also like a wounded kangaroo - they'll kick you to death. They're rightly brimming with confidence, but... after a few weeks of sane silence, De Villiers is starting to run his stupid mouth of again, and the madness is returning to his selections. There's surely no tactical reason to replace Steyn with Pienaar, so either it's the beginning of Frans' punishment for choosing to eat croissants for breakfast for the next couple of years or it's the patented De Villers insanity - I suppose we should just be grateful that it's not Earl Rose. Morne Steyn's stranglehold on the flyhalf jersey means we're unlikely to see a change in tactics, so it'll be more of the same dreary old grind. The Australians are going to be under the cosh for 80 minutes, but against all the odds, the Wallabies are going to rally in the final quarter and win this.

Australia by 5. Matt Giteau top Test Rugby points scorer.

Kynan's Prediction

More delusional thinking from Andrew. South Africa are unstoppable right now. They are playing winning rugby and have proven themselves too aggressive and powerful to be overcome by their easily rattled rivals from Down Under.

There have also been some indications that some running rugby is in order, so don't be surprised if Habana and Foruie actually touch the ball this week. I've selected them both on that assumption - so here's hoping I'm right.

Either way, Australia are a team in disarray right now, and losing Sharpe and Barnes will be a bigger blow than they care to admit. Giteau has looked off the boil, leaving Barnes as the only real playmaker, and Sharpe is the muscle in their pack. He has the iron to stand up to the likes of Bismarck and Bakkies - without him, it really could be a slaughter.

And let's not forget, South Africa's only two TriNations victories in Aussieland have come in Perth...

South Africa by 12. Spies top TR points scorer.

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