Tri-Nations Predictions: Week Four

Andrew's Prediction

You don't change a winning formula - even a boring, unattractive formula - so it'll be more of the same dull stuff from the Springboks on Saturday.

The Wallabies enter the game after a fortnight of stewing over a match they should have won. They've also watched the All Blacks flailing around like stranded fish in Bloemfontein and Durban and they're unlikely to be nearly as inept. Their tactical kicking will be a match for the Boks, and I expect kick-and-chase to be the order of the day from both sides - with the Aussies selecting Hynes on the bench rather than Waugh, it seems like Deans' is planning on a lot of running from his backs.

Australia will be more competitive at the line-out but you'd still expect Matfield & co to have the edge. Likewise the breakdown, where I think the Wallabies will fare better than the All Blacks did, but I expect Brussouw to shine again. George Smith and Brown will do good work too though, and the Wallabies will be a bigger threat from turnover ball. Expect to see Giteau darting past Morne Steyn at regular intervals, showing up the latter's defensive frailty.

The Springboks will start strong and quickly get the upper hand I don't think they'll be able to turn their superiority into tries and their complacency will allow the Wallabies back into the game. I think we're going to see a repeat of the first test, with Australia leading in the second half but then watching it slip from their grasp - they just don't have the confidence (arrogance?) of the Boks and, despite playing a much more attractive brand of rugby, this will prove decisive. It'll be close though and the return fixtures in Oz will be an altogether different proposition.

South Africa by 7. Matt Giteau top Test Rugby points scorer.

Kynan's Prediction

South Africa have been in a belligerent mood, intent on bludgeoning their opponents into submission at every ruck, maul and tackle. Expect more of the same, and some extremely shell-shocked Aussies.

But that Robbie Deans is a wily fellow. He'll have some tricks up his sleeve. Expect good old fashioned Crusaders kick-and-chase strategy. Fortunately, the South Africans have the kicking game to counter this. So for everyone hoping for a free flowing, open contest - maybe you better watch some Air New Zealand Cup action. Tomorrow will be all about forwards milling about in the center of the field, watching kicks fly back and forth over their heads, until someone finally makes a mistake.

Shrewd as Deans may be, let's just remember what happened the last few times the Crusaders played the Bulls in a semi-final, which will be similar in intensity to tomorrow's game. They kicked, they chased, and they were brutalized and suffocated by the same core of players making up the Springbok team. Du Preez, Steyn, Habana, Matfield, Botha and Spies - they're masters of their trade and I just cannot see Giteau and Co getting one over on them. Giteau is masterful, but he just doesn't have the muscle at the breakdown to keep him going forward. He'll be starved for ball and space, and he'll get tired and beat up from having Spies and Juan Smith running at his channel all day long, both in attack and defense, intent on smashing his amazingly resilient little body.

It's not going to be pretty, unless South Africa truly get the upper hand, then expect another hiding a la Ellis Park. I'm feeling optimistic. The Aussies think they're ready to make the step up to consistent world domination again. I say they're still a season away.

South Africa by 20 plus. Pierre Spies top TR points scorer