Tri-Nations Predictions: Week Three

Kynan's Prediction

The All Blacks will be desperate for a win after last week's poor performance. They did outscore the Boks in the second half though, and will be looking to take that momentum and finally get off to a good start. The Boks, on the other hand, are supremely confident -- but not arrogant. They are a team that knows how to win. They closed down the Lions in the first test, just as they were looking to stage an incredible comeback. They kicked a last second winner in the second test and they shut down the All Black resurgence last week. They have the power, the skill and the temperament to beat anyone. In a wet and rainy Durban, it's hard to imagine the Kiwis gaining an upper hand in the physical battle. Bismarck and Bakkies have been monumental at ruck and maul time. The Beast and Juan Smith do twice the work of their New Zealand counterparts. And then there's Brussow... not even the mighty McCaw can match him right now.

Unfortunately, show ponies like Spies are going to be invisible if it rains, as predicted. That's good news for the Boks, because New Zealand has a slew of them - Sivivatu, Rokocoko, Nonu... uh, Woodcock? Anyway, the point is, they were hoping for a fast-paced game and lots of ball to the wingers. Not going to happen in a wet and windy Durban. The air swirls like a Maelstrom at the best of times in good ol' Kings Park. Look for lots of shoddy kicking from Donald and Muliaina, and some spectacular and moral-sapping returns from Du Preez and the Steyns.

Big TR points are coming from the likes of Bismarck and Hore, Kaino and Smith -- ball-carriers in the hard, close stuff. The wingers will all get nothing. The two Steyn's will rack up a ton each. Matfield will be the best of the locks. McCaw and Brussow will also be winners.

Springboks by 2. Bismarck Du Plessis top TR points scorer.

Andrew's Prediction

The Boks should win this. They're coming off a moral-boosting opening win; the All Blacks are looking tired and going into a game which, if they lose, will leave their defence of the title seriously undermined. The predicted wet conditions will be more familiar to the Kiwis but will surely suit the Bok's ultra-conservative playing style more. Golden boy Morne Steyn is starting in place of the flustered and profligate Ruan Pienaar. Like last week there should be parity in the scrums but, like last week, the Boks will surely reign supreme at the line-outs...

The Boks should win this... but they won't. You could be mistaken for thinking they've already wrapped up their first three home games - South African arrogance is rivalled only by the English, and like the latter it can be their undoing. In all the hullabaloo surrounding Steyn's starting place, many have lost sight of the fact that Pienaar is the better player. Not 'Tiger Woods better,' but certainly more threatening, insightful, and, most importantly, a proven performer at test level. Steyn's off-the-bench cameo in the first Lions test was tempered by his distinctly unimpressive showing in the third. His place kicking is undoubtedly a great asset, but lest we forget the All Blacks outscored the Boks during Steyn's tenure last week - including the Conrad Smith try for which the flyhalf and his girlish tackling was partly culpable. With Steyn at the helm, the South African back line will be even less threatening than last week, with Habana and Pietersen unable to buy a pass for love nor money.

It will be another close and brutal encounter. In the wet conditions, expect a lot of errors from both sides. Tactical kicking will be the name of the game, resulting in a lot of line-outs which the Boks will dominate, but the All Blacks will start stronger than they did last week. McCaw is slowly recapturing his form and the pressure is on for underperformers (ie. lazy, sloppy, overpaid primadonnas) like Nonu and Rokocoko to step up, and they will. It'll be neck and neck in the final 20 minutes but this time the Boks will lose their heads as Steyn wastes good attacking possession by punting (failed) drop goal attempts at every opportunity. The price of having a puppet of a coach who spends halftime standing by himself, talking to no-one will be paid. The All Blacks will return to New Zealand firmly, but undeservedly, in the Tri-Nations driving seat. And the unjustly-maligned and mono-browed Pienaar will start at flyhalf next week.

New Zealand by 7. Bismarck du Plessis top Test Rugby points scorer.

P.S. Did Kynan and his boyfriend Pierre Spies have a break up? Last week he was the strongest, fastest and sexiest human being ever, but this week he's being described as an "invisible" and a "show pony."