Friday, July 24, 2009

Predictions: Tri-Nations Week Two

Kynan's Prediction

History is against the Bokke - the All Blacks have never lost in Bloemfontein. Now, admittedly, they've only played there twice and the last time was in the 1960's, but still, one should never discount history.

That being said, the Boks will win. They will be a little rusty (it's been weeks since any of them played), but the All Blacks will be tired, intimidated, and psychologically defeated. They've already been talking up the long flight and the effects of altitude. Ritchie McCaw will also be having nightmares of the Crusaders/Cheetahs game earlier this year, when Brussow and Juan Smith played him off the park (literally - he left with concussion).

And then there's Pierre Spies. He was quiet during the Lions Tour, but look for him to come roaring back. The game will be a little more open, the fields a little harder, the crowd a little more partisan, and the true beast within the Springbok team will explode into action. Two tries by Spies is my prediction, one of them directly over the top of King Ritchie.

Also look for a big game from Franscois Steyn. He needs to run it more, and the actions of Spies will go to his head and free him from all inhibition. He'll roar and rampage and it will be a beautiful thing to behold.

Scrum parity will be achieved, line-outs will be ruled by Matfield, Brussow will get the Boks quick ball at the breakdown, and their big Dutchmen will run riot. It's going to bring little tears of joy to my eyes.

Boks by 12. Spies top TR points scorer.

Andrew's Prediction

The Springboks are being coached by a man of straw and the question isn't if but when the situation will worsen to the point where de Villiers is replaced. For the Boks and their supporters I hope this happens sooner than later, and a new coaching set-up can have as much time as possible with the team before the 2011 World Cup. Does anyone really doubt that its the players and not the coach that run this show? The quality of John Smit's leadership on the field and the undoubted strengths and skills of the individual players have pulled them through thus far but it can't go on indefinitely. The cracks are beginning to show and are only going to get wider.

The match will be tight. The All Blacks will be buoyed by last week's victory and be all the stronger because of it. The Springboks are coming off a Lions Tour victory in which that the fact that they won seems to have been forgotten among all the flak surrounding their coach's verbal diarrhoea and tactical niavete. Both claim that they are the underdogs. Both flyhalfs are seen as the weak link by the opposition and will be targeted. There'll be parity in the scrums and at the breakdown. Expect a lot of kicking to touch by the Boks, exploiting their undoubted superiority in the lineout. I forsee a brutal but low-scoring first half, with the Boks starting better and keeping the All Blacks pinned in their half of the field. Things will open up in the second half and the All Blacks will restart the stronger team. This is where the coachless Boks will need to keep their heads. If they can weather the storm, then they'll win. But if Spies goes MIA when things get rough as he's wont to do, if Pienaar gets flustered and forced into errors, if Frans Steyn commits one of trademark acts of madness, if de Villiers makes a substitutional blunder... then the All Blacks will win this.

South Africa by less than 7. Sitiveni Sivivatu top Test Rugby points scorer.

1 comment:

  1. "the All Blacks will be tired, intimidated, and psychologically defeated."

    Yeah, that makes sense seeing as they beat the Wallabies last week...
    Honestly, did Margot write this week's blog?

    ReplyDelete